HX4 2010

[km]

First order of business for summer updates is HX4. Going to add the following items =

nFIT (1= Fit & Ready)
nBTL (1 = BTL better than look)
nPNT (1 = Projects New Top)
nTOUR (1 = tournament play)

nJ14ST = number of starts jockey last 14 days (tentative start May 1, cannot be grandfathered )
nJ14WIN = number of wins jockey last 14 days

nKMS_Race = KM's new speed figure for the race, it does not use the clock, requires Chart (can be grandfathered)
nKMS_Horse = KM's new figure for the horse, it does not use the clock, requires Chart

Notes:
That last item may be blank until July, and will be explained at the seminar and future newsletters.

"grandfathered" means that if you rerun your data export after getting the new version, the new items will appear for all past races. In the case of the JKY Last 14 days, it is newly added to the racefile itself and cannot be configured from past data.

Negative items from the NLog will be part of a new export and HXn later. There may be changes to the NLog and "Cold Jockey" will be one of them (using the new 14 day item). All of the positive items on "the buzz" are already part of the HX4 or will be added as above.

If you have any other suggestions or addtions for HX4, please let me know.

[DanG]

I must be getting old and / or its getting hard to improve on great software.

This is the first year since joining HTR I can remember struggling with export suggestions. Everything you listed is just what the good doctor Gupta ordered. :)

[njcurveball]

Thanks Ken. It is amazing how much you do with HTR and rarely to never ask for anything in return. We are truly blessed to be part of this group.

I wonder how Ron is compiling the jockey stats. Perhaps this should go in a different thread, but where does Equibase get their 30 day stats? The reason I bring it up, is because of the similar names of riders.

As for factors, you know once again I will ask if we can split out the class into more than just 4 categories.

Here is my simple view of it
1.) Maiden Claiming
2.) MSW
3.) Beaten Claiming
4.) Claiming
5.) Allowance
6.) Classified/Stakes
7.) Graded
8.) Starter Races
9.) Optional Claiming

I also will ask again if we can add the odds to HX5.

OK, I probably said too much. Thanks for all you do Ken. :)

[DanG]

Along the lines of class…an incredibly disproportionate # of state-bred races and non-winners of 2 lifetime trip me up. :o Anyone who specializes in these two areas I bow with deep respect.

[DanG]

This isn’t an HX4 discussion per say, but in the future perhaps.

The pedigree (and FTI) ratings are clearly indispensable. Along those lines if an ‘effective distance’ algorithm could be developed I believe it’s vastly underutilized by most players.

A combination of…

• Last >=10 distances weighted by whatever Ken views as effective… (FR3, finish position, PER etc)
• The distance portion of the pedigree weighted according to lifetime starts. (Obviously less weight the more an animal has run.)
• Projected “ideal distance” displayed in decimal form…5.9 / 8.3 etc and perhaps a % of today’s distance could put the factor in perspective.

IMHO: Day in day out some of the best opportunities to beat the favorite are when their distance challenged. The same reasoning applies to bombs that have little else pointing them out except that 9 furlongs is in their wheelhouse.

BTW: This is NOT a shot at Tomlinson who I feel has done some excellent work, but I found his distance rating to be lacking something that I would bet Ken could improve upon it.

[tomcat]

How about "0" used in the KM screen...n#?

[km]

NJ, i'll add a new nCLASS type numeric to identify more separation with the basic race types.

Dan, that's an excellent topic for exploration in the newsletter. I'll run some tests with the PED and distances > 8.5f in the next issue. We'll see if we can find something or improve on it. Especially applicable during Classic season.

TomCat, yes, N# (number of negatives on the NLog) goes in the HX4. The individual negative items will appear in another HX.

[njcurveball]

Sounds great Ken.

Thanks for all you do!

[njcurveball]

I know this was discussed before, but not sure what the result was.

How bout a field for the course size? ACRC opens today and is a one mile turf oval. Other turf tracks are 7 furlongs. Woodbine is a mile and a half course.

We have a field for Ncourse, how bout Ntrksize, or something like that?

[km]

I'll have to pass on anything else for now NJ, as i have a solid template for the new export finished and will begin beta testing soon. I'll contact you asap to check it out.

The track geometry list was posted by Dan as i recall. Also, the Robot and Export can easily query the specific Track and Course, so i don't know how the circumfrence would help you pick more winners; but you can make your case to me at another time and i'll take it up with HDW if it holds any water. So i'll close this HX4 suggestion box for now and get the 2010 update ready.

thank you all for the feedback

[km]

After the KY Derby weekend is over, I'll post an announcement for beta test on the new HX4. Those of you that want to take a first look and provide feedback will get the first crack at it. Sure appreciate the help in getting it finalized. This HX4 will be one of our best updates ever and includes a lot of great new data.