RS Experiment

[George]

Recently ran a query on Jky/RS db that fascinated me. Simple tested for jockeys with 10 or more starts on a runstyle that had roi greater than 100%. Only other criteria was MLO range of 6-1 to 20-1.
Result indicated 19% win with over 100% roi.

Ran the query yesterday against all tracks and bet $2 win/place on each selection.
Had 84 horses. Seven scratched. 17 won. 22 placed.
Win pct 22%. Place 28.5%.
Bet $154 to win, got back $293.20 for 90% roi. Avg Mutuel $17.24.
Bet $154 to place, got back $170.40 for 10.6% roi. Avg Mutuel $7.75.

Interesting enough am going to fire at 80 of them today.

[Glen]

Sounds interesting George. Keep us posted!

[Neil]

It might be interesting to modify (or test for) Jockey/horse running style with post position.
I once ran a query for Shane Sellers on outside posts (with DarkHorse, several years ago), and, though not conclusive, I found a lot of well-bet horses that finished otm.

I would be interested in being able to compare:
jocks on e or p horses in inside posts at Kee and CD vs. outside posts, same track
jocks on s or r horses, inside vs. outside Kee & CD. (and separate query for turf)

Neil

[George]

Neil........great minds think alike? Post position by jockey/horse runstyle is one of the things I have been testing. Do not have enough "pristine" data yet to make results meaningful at specific tracks.

Queries across "all tracks" indicate far outside posts may make great wagering opportunities when jockey/runstyle matches well. Post 1-4 did well also.

Think tests will mean more when I have enough data to test by track. Am piling up LS and CD as fast as possible. Wish I had kept last years data, but surface change at LS would make it suspect anyway.

[The Wizard]

George,

Great work on your test...........hopefully today will be positive for you also........that angle interest me alot ..........please keep us posted on your results..........best of luck today :p

[Ron]

George;

I was thinking about those **** K1 spot plays we worked on a few months ago.

If you added the jky\rs as another * qualifier to those spots,....would it improve the hit rate and roi?

Ron

[George]

Ron,
A good question. Will add it to my to-do list.

Have not done a lot of queries combining jky/rs with traditional HTR factors.
Major reason is that I don't feel the amount of jockey data summarized so far will provide a valid measurement. What little I have done has been idle curiosity over "how is it looking" so far.

My early testing has indicated the best returns on jky/rs matchups come from really ugly horses. The ones you wouldn't bet with your buddy's money, let alone yours. That makes me think it may not help on ****K1 which are usually quite "pretty". Will take a look though and may even add-in a little post position to see if that might boost it.

Thanks for the suggestion.

[George]

Neil.........am going to update my jky/rs db this weekend which will give me almost four months worth of data. After the update will run the tests you requested on CD and report them on Monday. Think KEE is such a short meet may not be meaningful but will look at it also.

[Neil]

OK George, thanks. If we're allowed to share data, I have 4 meetings of Kee.

Neil

[George]

Day 2
80 selected
8 scratched
72 bet
5 wins
11 place
bet $144 win returned $86.6 win% 7 loss $57.40 avg mutuel $17.32
bet $144 plc returned $124.60 plc% 15 loss $19.40 avg plc mutuel $11.33

Total for 2 days
149 bet
19 wins
33 plc
bet $298 win returned $379.80 win% 12.7 profit $81.80 avg mutuel $19.98 roi 27.4%
bet $298 plc returned $295.00 plc% 22.1 loss $3.00 avg mutuel $8.94 roi -1%

Don't know if many of you have called in 70+ bets before but gonna have to hire a clerk.
My phone ear and arm has went dead!!

[George]

Completed 6 day test with real $ of the query for jockeys with positive roi by runstyle with MLO of 6-1 to 20-1.

Bets 715
Wins 85
Win% 11.8
$Bet 1430
$Return $2108
$Profit 678
WIN ROI 1.47
Place 141
Plc% 19.7
$Bet 1430
$Return 1318
$Loss 112
PLC ROI 0.92

Win betting this play may be feasable if an automated way to "call in" the bets could be arranged. No way would I call in that many bets on a daily basis long term.
Play is suspect due to low win%. There were some really bad losing streaks.
Also play is based on jockey "hot streak" in recent past. Jockey db would need constant "refresh" to keep a rolling 2-3 month history. Interesting play.!