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RobS
3rd January 2010, 07:04.26 PM
Hello All,

I'm relatively new to computerized handicapping and have been recently trying various software. I have read and studied a lot of the material written on the HTR site for several months now. I have learned a huge amount here.

I have just 7.5 or so months of data so far, and have had a few stumbles out of the gate, but have recently come up w a potential universal spot play that fulfills several criteria I laid out, based somewhat on personal preference but moreso on what I have read on this site:

1. lots of plays, but 1 per race
2. consistency in ROI and win, itm rates from month to month
3. place and show ROI vs.win ROI analogous to those on p. 8 of 2009 seminar book
4. all of the higher K ranks have positive ROI (an indicator of "overlay potential" ?)


Learn More Report
Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 01/03/2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 02471 00382 15% 29% 41% 1.13 1.02 0.95 $14.7 $85 1.43

JAN 00029 00005 17% 34% 52% 1.28 0.95 1.13 $14.9 $34 1.57
FEB 00000
MAR 00000
APR 00000
MAY 00139 00017 12% 29% 39% 1.07 0.97 0.81 $17.5 $51 1.09
JUN 00248 00042 17% 29% 43% 1.19 1.04 1.00 $14.0 $30 1.53
JUL 00396 00061 15% 28% 40% 1.11 1.01 1.00 $14.4 $31 1.40
AUG 00357 00059 17% 31% 44% 1.05 0.99 0.95 $12.7 $46 1.47
SEP 00351 00051 15% 31% 42% 1.12 1.09 0.99 $15.5 $66 1.33
OCT 00392 00064 16% 28% 39% 1.22 1.02 0.91 $15.0 $69 1.54
NOV 00312 00044 14% 28% 38% 1.19 1.03 0.93 $16.9 $85 1.34
DEC 00247 00039 16% 28% 38% 1.06 0.94 0.94 $13.5 $42 1.51

K 113-115 00000
K 110-112 00000
K 108-109 00000
K 106-107 00017 00002 12% 24% 47% 0.30 0.57 0.92 $5.1 $6 0.96
K 104-105 00080 00011 14% 31% 39% 0.65 0.86 0.76 $9.4 $22 1.25
K 102-103 00171 00037 22% 42% 49% 1.26 1.13 0.96 $11.6 $51 1.87
K 101-100 00255 00050 20% 35% 45% 1.00 0.91 0.90 $10.2 $23 1.73
K 097-099 00456 00081 18% 30% 45% 1.05 0.95 0.92 $11.8 $34 1.59
K 094-096 00417 00063 15% 28% 41% 1.07 0.98 0.99 $14.2 $54 1.38
K 092-093 00237 00042 18% 35% 46% 1.44 1.33 1.10 $16.3 $57 1.62
K 090-091 00216 00035 16% 29% 43% 1.45 1.20 1.09 $18.0 $41 1.52
K 088-089 00159 00016 10% 20% 30% 0.74 0.87 0.77 $14.8 $26 0.96
K 085-087 00175 00016 09% 23% 35% 1.19 1.08 1.00 $26.0 $85 0.88
K 080-084 00170 00018 11% 18% 27% 1.12 0.83 0.81 $21.2 $66 1.04
K 055-079 00118 00011 09% 19% 31% 1.46 1.02 1.05 $31.4 $69 0.96

Apart from win and possibly win-place betting, I am interested in whether there is a way I can test these horses out as keys in exactas, trifectas and pick-x plays? I am currently trying to learn Access. Will Access allow me to do so? I have seen one of the past newsletters post related data.

With the data showing that these horses have previously outrun their K-values is it prudent to bet them as overlays; i.e., on those that have odds higher than their respective K-line? Is there a way to test this?

thanks very much!

Rick
3rd January 2010, 07:32.11 PM
I have done it with exactas but have not tried tri or p-3.

I would think it is possible but would just be more involved.

Part of the trick is that you can run your spot plays in Access.

BEEGEE
4th January 2010, 03:59.58 PM
There are ton of guys on this board smarter than me but I would make 103 my top K rating.
I would also run another spot with K103 -90 as my paramaters.
Compare the results with the higher hit rate to decide what to do with the lower k ratings.
good luck
beegee

completebill
4th January 2010, 06:02.38 PM
----I concur w/ BeeGee---change the K parameters to a top of 103. I don't see any reason to look further at the lower K ranges at this point.
This looks like a terrific potential spot play. Personally, however, since spot play R.O.I. , in real life, seems to always decline as the play moves forward, I would not be at all comfortable using this spot play with real money, without seeing some improvements in r.o.i. and Impact Value.
The Great thing is that you have so many plays to work with. I'll bet that careful perusal of the Learn All and Learn More reports will reveal ,any opportunities to eliminate some unprofitable factors, ranges, etc., to further improve the play.

NICE WORK!!!!------Bill

km
4th January 2010, 07:35.10 PM
Welcome and thanks for posting Rob

Spot play Win - Pla - Sho based on smaller takeout (14-19%) than exotics (20-25%). Normally when i test my spot play as an exacta key with the top 3 (K) or whatever, the results reduce the ROI about 90% of the time. Yet about 1 in 10 of those tests yields a far better ROI than the spot play could deliver. But be careful, sometimes it can be based on a single huge payoff.

The Robot cannot test exotics because it requires programming to set up specific parameters that are very complicated. You'll need a db, our Export and a lot of patience and hard work to do it.

The alternative is to take a longshot spot play and go with a simple plan to maximize Place and Show. Such as taking the selected play and insert the horse with the next 4 (K) horses in the trifecta.

ABCD (top 4 K )
ABDC
X (spot play horse)

ABCD
X
ABCD

Bet the horse to Win instead of on top in the exotic. Longshots tend to finish 2nd and 3rd, about 2x or 3x more often than Win.

RobS
4th January 2010, 08:17.30 PM
Dear Ken, CompleteBill, BEEGEE and Rick:

Thanks so much for the suggestions and encouragement!!

You have given me some fascinating suggestions that I will certainly follow up on.

Rob