RobS
3rd January 2010, 07:04.26 PM
Hello All,
I'm relatively new to computerized handicapping and have been recently trying various software. I have read and studied a lot of the material written on the HTR site for several months now. I have learned a huge amount here.
I have just 7.5 or so months of data so far, and have had a few stumbles out of the gate, but have recently come up w a potential universal spot play that fulfills several criteria I laid out, based somewhat on personal preference but moreso on what I have read on this site:
1. lots of plays, but 1 per race
2. consistency in ROI and win, itm rates from month to month
3. place and show ROI vs.win ROI analogous to those on p. 8 of 2009 seminar book
4. all of the higher K ranks have positive ROI (an indicator of "overlay potential" ?)
Learn More Report
Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 01/03/2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 02471 00382 15% 29% 41% 1.13 1.02 0.95 $14.7 $85 1.43
JAN 00029 00005 17% 34% 52% 1.28 0.95 1.13 $14.9 $34 1.57
FEB 00000
MAR 00000
APR 00000
MAY 00139 00017 12% 29% 39% 1.07 0.97 0.81 $17.5 $51 1.09
JUN 00248 00042 17% 29% 43% 1.19 1.04 1.00 $14.0 $30 1.53
JUL 00396 00061 15% 28% 40% 1.11 1.01 1.00 $14.4 $31 1.40
AUG 00357 00059 17% 31% 44% 1.05 0.99 0.95 $12.7 $46 1.47
SEP 00351 00051 15% 31% 42% 1.12 1.09 0.99 $15.5 $66 1.33
OCT 00392 00064 16% 28% 39% 1.22 1.02 0.91 $15.0 $69 1.54
NOV 00312 00044 14% 28% 38% 1.19 1.03 0.93 $16.9 $85 1.34
DEC 00247 00039 16% 28% 38% 1.06 0.94 0.94 $13.5 $42 1.51
K 113-115 00000
K 110-112 00000
K 108-109 00000
K 106-107 00017 00002 12% 24% 47% 0.30 0.57 0.92 $5.1 $6 0.96
K 104-105 00080 00011 14% 31% 39% 0.65 0.86 0.76 $9.4 $22 1.25
K 102-103 00171 00037 22% 42% 49% 1.26 1.13 0.96 $11.6 $51 1.87
K 101-100 00255 00050 20% 35% 45% 1.00 0.91 0.90 $10.2 $23 1.73
K 097-099 00456 00081 18% 30% 45% 1.05 0.95 0.92 $11.8 $34 1.59
K 094-096 00417 00063 15% 28% 41% 1.07 0.98 0.99 $14.2 $54 1.38
K 092-093 00237 00042 18% 35% 46% 1.44 1.33 1.10 $16.3 $57 1.62
K 090-091 00216 00035 16% 29% 43% 1.45 1.20 1.09 $18.0 $41 1.52
K 088-089 00159 00016 10% 20% 30% 0.74 0.87 0.77 $14.8 $26 0.96
K 085-087 00175 00016 09% 23% 35% 1.19 1.08 1.00 $26.0 $85 0.88
K 080-084 00170 00018 11% 18% 27% 1.12 0.83 0.81 $21.2 $66 1.04
K 055-079 00118 00011 09% 19% 31% 1.46 1.02 1.05 $31.4 $69 0.96
Apart from win and possibly win-place betting, I am interested in whether there is a way I can test these horses out as keys in exactas, trifectas and pick-x plays? I am currently trying to learn Access. Will Access allow me to do so? I have seen one of the past newsletters post related data.
With the data showing that these horses have previously outrun their K-values is it prudent to bet them as overlays; i.e., on those that have odds higher than their respective K-line? Is there a way to test this?
thanks very much!
I'm relatively new to computerized handicapping and have been recently trying various software. I have read and studied a lot of the material written on the HTR site for several months now. I have learned a huge amount here.
I have just 7.5 or so months of data so far, and have had a few stumbles out of the gate, but have recently come up w a potential universal spot play that fulfills several criteria I laid out, based somewhat on personal preference but moreso on what I have read on this site:
1. lots of plays, but 1 per race
2. consistency in ROI and win, itm rates from month to month
3. place and show ROI vs.win ROI analogous to those on p. 8 of 2009 seminar book
4. all of the higher K ranks have positive ROI (an indicator of "overlay potential" ?)
Learn More Report
Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 01/03/2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 02471 00382 15% 29% 41% 1.13 1.02 0.95 $14.7 $85 1.43
JAN 00029 00005 17% 34% 52% 1.28 0.95 1.13 $14.9 $34 1.57
FEB 00000
MAR 00000
APR 00000
MAY 00139 00017 12% 29% 39% 1.07 0.97 0.81 $17.5 $51 1.09
JUN 00248 00042 17% 29% 43% 1.19 1.04 1.00 $14.0 $30 1.53
JUL 00396 00061 15% 28% 40% 1.11 1.01 1.00 $14.4 $31 1.40
AUG 00357 00059 17% 31% 44% 1.05 0.99 0.95 $12.7 $46 1.47
SEP 00351 00051 15% 31% 42% 1.12 1.09 0.99 $15.5 $66 1.33
OCT 00392 00064 16% 28% 39% 1.22 1.02 0.91 $15.0 $69 1.54
NOV 00312 00044 14% 28% 38% 1.19 1.03 0.93 $16.9 $85 1.34
DEC 00247 00039 16% 28% 38% 1.06 0.94 0.94 $13.5 $42 1.51
K 113-115 00000
K 110-112 00000
K 108-109 00000
K 106-107 00017 00002 12% 24% 47% 0.30 0.57 0.92 $5.1 $6 0.96
K 104-105 00080 00011 14% 31% 39% 0.65 0.86 0.76 $9.4 $22 1.25
K 102-103 00171 00037 22% 42% 49% 1.26 1.13 0.96 $11.6 $51 1.87
K 101-100 00255 00050 20% 35% 45% 1.00 0.91 0.90 $10.2 $23 1.73
K 097-099 00456 00081 18% 30% 45% 1.05 0.95 0.92 $11.8 $34 1.59
K 094-096 00417 00063 15% 28% 41% 1.07 0.98 0.99 $14.2 $54 1.38
K 092-093 00237 00042 18% 35% 46% 1.44 1.33 1.10 $16.3 $57 1.62
K 090-091 00216 00035 16% 29% 43% 1.45 1.20 1.09 $18.0 $41 1.52
K 088-089 00159 00016 10% 20% 30% 0.74 0.87 0.77 $14.8 $26 0.96
K 085-087 00175 00016 09% 23% 35% 1.19 1.08 1.00 $26.0 $85 0.88
K 080-084 00170 00018 11% 18% 27% 1.12 0.83 0.81 $21.2 $66 1.04
K 055-079 00118 00011 09% 19% 31% 1.46 1.02 1.05 $31.4 $69 0.96
Apart from win and possibly win-place betting, I am interested in whether there is a way I can test these horses out as keys in exactas, trifectas and pick-x plays? I am currently trying to learn Access. Will Access allow me to do so? I have seen one of the past newsletters post related data.
With the data showing that these horses have previously outrun their K-values is it prudent to bet them as overlays; i.e., on those that have odds higher than their respective K-line? Is there a way to test this?
thanks very much!