RS Spot Plays 5/14

[George]

Try again..second day of spot play....if I come down with "thirditis" play is dead.

BM R5 #4
DEL R3 #3
HAW R6 #8
HAW R8 #4
HOL R1 #1
PHA R7 #7
PRM R2 #3
PRM R8 #6
SUF R5 #3
TDN R3 #6

[George]

Would have been happy with "thirditis" as these went 1/10. This play goes "on the bench" as Carl puts it. Play averaged 46% on 3 months of data the jockey db was built from. It also averaged 45% against 3 months of data it had never seen. Had averaged 42% over last week.

Post it for two days and it goes at a blazing 11%. Go figure.

[Carl]

Thanks for posting the workout George. Appreciate it much. Wouldn't give up on so soon though.

I really like Barry Meadow's posts over at PA's about how you could "win for a year at a 18% rate, averaging 3 plays a day" and then "lose with the same play" for the next year and........ neither run of data would be conclusive.

Barry has taken a lot of flack for this, people basically reducing his argument to an ad absurdium one, i.e. "then we can never know anything", etc., but I personally like Barry's point. 1000 plays is not a lot IMO.

I think you posted that if this thing works you wouldn't mind posting your criteria. Well, if you don't mind, please do. (Or, if you would prefer, e-mail me.) I have Jockey's in my main db, would be glad to run it on my 80,000 race thing that covers a year. Let's see what it does there. I would trust six months of "pristine" back data ahead of two days of going forward stuff.

Thanks again. I think there is some interesting stuff here, even if not some "gold nuggets". But you never know....

later,
Carl

[George]

Thanks for the encouragement Carl. Good points. Have found that the jky/rs is a little more predictive than just jockey overall stats. Have mentioned the ones with better win% have most of their rides on the runstyle for distance that produced most of that percentage. Not sure if they ride those better or if they ride them because those RS are more likely to win that type race. Is it a "chicken" or an "egg" first?.

Have also cashed several "whopper" exacta's recently by adding jky/rs matchups with high roi to the EV1 and HTR consensus top 2. Have primarily boxed them with some judicious "keying" when there were too many to box.

Will keep looking at it. Decided to quit posting the spot play lest some poor soul actually bet them. Would not want anyone else's bankroll to take the beating mine did yesterday.

Was thinking of making the jky/rs table available for download later by putting it on FREEDRIVE. Placed in a folder there I can give out a password for other people to download it. Gets around e-mail limitations on sending large files.

My file at present is intentionally small (3 months all tracks but AQU & HIA). Can build you a nine month one if you are interested in checking against your large db. Not sure 9 months is adequate. Glen may have a larger one built already?

Let me know if the 9 month would be useful.

[hurrikane]

Geez George. I just spend yesterday building the queries to be able to run this JK/RS from my main database with my spot plays. Got it working ..data looked nice...didn't have a clue what to do with it..and now you dump it! :)
I think the exotics could be a great place for this information to make some profits as you have hinted. Let me know what you find, I'll post my findings.

Carl, did you get the place roi calc..if not email me and I'll send you one.
go4bird@hotmail.com

[Glen]

Here is my lifes work...Ok, maybe last couple days worth. Dunno how to use it...
Lone Star Jock dB for review...Still a work in progress...

[Glen]

Ok, what happend to the upload? Not here...

[Rick]

Glen,
When trying to attach a file.

If you want to Preview Reply, do your preview then go back and attach file.

Doing a Preview Reply removes the attachment. Something about them (vBulletin authors) not wanting to upload attachment files if the messages was not posted. I guess they could not figure out how to leave the file attached while previewing without loading.

[Glen]

Please report back the findings...

[Glen]

Rick,
not sure what I'm doing wrong. I used to be able to attach files and now I can't. Didn't preview either. Maybe I lost my mojo or something....

[George]

Glen......not to worry. Am not jumping ship on jockey/runstyle. Still think it is useful.

You mention having it joined to main db and wondering what to do with it. Am sure you don't need advice on that but will give some anyway.

Important to run date range other than what your jky data was built from.

Assume you have it joined by jockey, distance, runstyle so any query of main data also points to the "joined" correct jockey, dist/surf, and rs.

Run a favorite spot play, note results, then add #jky/starts greater than 10 and jkyroi greater than 100.
Did it help or hurt?

Run a very simple mlo > 5 and #jky/starts > 10 and jkyroi > 100 and d/s = 1.
The answer on my db blew me away!!

Enjoy.

[George]

Glen, try attaching a litlle bitty test file. Suspect your db may exceed size limit?
Otherwise, maybe Rick can figure it out.

[Glen]

George,

Thanks for the good advice. I had created a list of +10 Edif Super Jocks...Guys who really had scores well in the past on these beast. Will monitor how these super jocks do. If they keep up their trend, maybe I will play them.

Test attachment...

[MikeDee]

Rick there seems to be some problem with attachments. I had the same problem the other day with a small spreasheet and I didn't do a preview either

[Rick]

Just testing!!

Not working for sure. Let me try to find out what the problem is!!!

[Rick]

vBulletin had a bug (or 2) in the new upgrade.

They posted a temporary fix on their board. I just tried it and it works, so everyone can do attachments again.