km
14th May 2009, 10:12.30 AM
Notice the PER rating for Mine that Bird is lower than the three horses he beat in the Derby. Huh?
PER is based on total velocity, not final time (the race itself PER = 106, below average)
If you punch up FIG2, you'll see that 'Bird gets a "10" and the others are "15" or worse. That's a final time rating only. About 27% of all races are won by the horse with the best last out Fig, but 'Bird doesn't even have that in here as Big Drama gets an "8" from a 7.0f race. Notice how far from the dotted line (par) all of these horses are for this race. Weak crop? Maybe.
PER is telling us that Mine that Bird's victory (and final time fig) is an optical illusion because all the hard work was done early in the race and the final fraction was a severe meltdown of which he took advantage.
This would confirm those who said the Derby was a bad race overall and the crop is weak. Could the race have been such a perfect confluence of bad performances and track bias to allow a 50/1 shot to to win in a romp? Or did 'Bird win by default because no one else has any ability?
The weak PER will be confirmed if Mine that Bird runs out. That is not a typical occurance in the Preakness as the Derby winner tends to finish ITM nearly every year.
PER is based on total velocity, not final time (the race itself PER = 106, below average)
If you punch up FIG2, you'll see that 'Bird gets a "10" and the others are "15" or worse. That's a final time rating only. About 27% of all races are won by the horse with the best last out Fig, but 'Bird doesn't even have that in here as Big Drama gets an "8" from a 7.0f race. Notice how far from the dotted line (par) all of these horses are for this race. Weak crop? Maybe.
PER is telling us that Mine that Bird's victory (and final time fig) is an optical illusion because all the hard work was done early in the race and the final fraction was a severe meltdown of which he took advantage.
This would confirm those who said the Derby was a bad race overall and the crop is weak. Could the race have been such a perfect confluence of bad performances and track bias to allow a 50/1 shot to to win in a romp? Or did 'Bird win by default because no one else has any ability?
The weak PER will be confirmed if Mine that Bird runs out. That is not a typical occurance in the Preakness as the Derby winner tends to finish ITM nearly every year.