Day 14, Race 7 @ TUP

[Glen]

Might as well post one...

[George]

Busy day so will post early.
Whew, tuff between 6,7,10,11

picked ev1 #11
alt #6

[MtKen]

I don't understand why the 11 is 20/1, he finished 2nd 2 of last 3 vs. similar. Has good Prats, a 'b' WO off a 65 day rest, 1st out with the trainer while only 1 trainer has won with his horse out of the other 11 & that one is 1/21 with the horse! 11 for me also, with 3 for backup.

[hurrikane]

hmm...tough race....as for the 11...my recent layoff trainer toss-em out theory says
TUP
lay >45 nTRN <200 and >=100
143 - 7w -63.78 ROI (this holds pretty true across all tracks)
TUP
lay >45 regardless of trainer
540 - 51w -40.26%

based on this unproven theory of some trainers couldn't get a horse ready to take a leak.

#3 ==#1 esd(+9 with the 11 scratched) / #1 res

alt #6

[MikeDee]

pick 6
alt 8

[Glen]

This race sucks...
Attached is Impact w/ Jock/RS Win% and ROI. Not only does this race suck, so do the jocks!!!

[Glen]

Pn Horse Jockey Hits Win% ROI

3 Shuga Sh 6/1 020 Rocha J 16 12.50% -28.13
11 Guided P 20/1 065 Higuera 42 19.05% -32.14
4 Bold and 15/1 024 Villa M 47 12.77% -19.15
6 Seattle 10/1 020 Black K 2 0 0
8 Champagn *3/1 016 Gomez E 111 14.14% -27.93
10 Flying C 5/1 013 Stevens 87 10.34% -55.75
5 Timentid 30/1 025 Ortiz, 31 12.90% -25.81
1 Mustard 8/1 009 Dieguez 68 13.24% -33.09
12 The Meis 30/1 013 Hadley 34 8.82% 1.33
2 Icomefro 9/2 020 Durigon 47 4.26% -74.47
7 Juan's P 6/1 013 Guerra 46 10.57% -44.57
9 Bank On 20/1 009 Young T 7 14.29% -64.29

[hurrikane]

Glen,
I believe in these types of races the Quinn condition book says to take the lightly raced jockey on the 6. :)

[Glen]

Thats funny Hurrikane...I was thinking the same thing...
Gimmie #6

[George]

Actually figured this sucky race out 3 minutes to post. Tried desperately to get in here and change my bet. Felt like being in line at Lone Star on Derby day. Don't suppose you guys would take my word and pay me on the tri?? Lone Star won't :)

[George]

Really liked Hurrikanes analysis of #11 as a trainer throwout. Now gonna have to build a db of "trainers that can't teach a horse to take a leak":)