HTR Consensus Screen Trainer Ranking

[Dr.Larry]

(REPOSTED FROM SIMULCAST CONTROVERSY)


HTR Consensus Trainer Ranking
Ken,
In today's 7th at Aqu Christopher Clement trains the #3 Margay
and #3X Bloomy entry.

The HTR Consensus (Screen <0> ranks Trainer for Margay 5, while
ranking Bloom's trainer 1.

Best Wishes, ...Larry

[Dr.Larry]

Just noticed that above mentioned ranking in Impact
is reversed for these two horses.

Clement is Ranked 364 for Bloomy and 369 for Margay

[hurrikane]

Doc,

Hopefully Ken will address this for you a little better.

I know the rating in HTR and Impact have little correlation. I have seen trainers ranked 1 in HTR and last in impact. The impact rating takes into account much more info..with recency given more weight..along with type of race jockey, surface, recent success type of runner etc.

The HTR rating I believe is compiled over the last year and looks at the trainer, jockey, and type of race...that is why the difference.

That being said..I'm sure Ken will now set me straight. :D

I usually check rating in both pieces and then always check the comprehensive trainer report to see why the rating is what it is and try to get a mental rating of my own..or at least understand where the rating came from.

I've had success with both numbers..mostly when combines with the jockey.

[Glen]

I don't know all the specifics but HTR Trn rating is based upon todays condidtions (ie layoff, 1st/2nd claim, Route-Sprint) where as iTRN is based upon overall trainer ability (Wins, Places, Shows)
For example, Bloomy horse is 2nd off layoff and Margay is 3rd off layoff. I also suspect that due to space limitations there are other "trainer angles" that are not listed in our trainer report.

[Dr.Larry]

Thank's Guys,
Makes sense. Just wanted to make sure there
was no error...Larry

[Ken Massa]

You guys explained it well. I'll help clarify it for my kind friend Larry who chose an example race for his question that makes HTR look good!

I believe there is a recent thread here with the complete details of why the Impact trainer rating is different than the HTR-Consensus TRN. Hurrikane asked about that I believe.

re: AQU race 7 on Sunday - #3 and #3x trainer Clement entry -

The Trainer ranking in HTR-Consensus will be different for a trainer with two horses entered. The jockey is a major consideration as is the the trainer's record with the individual horse. In theory, a trainer's probability of winning with the "1" rank is stronger than the "5" rank based on the TRN factors. That may be important to know if the odds are long on one of the horses and short on the other (if not coupled). The AQU race was textbook for the TRN as the #1 rank won the race and the other horse was out of the money.

During recent years meetings at Del Mar, Bob Baffert was entering two horses in the same race pretty often. Maiden races in particular. CA rules do not require coupled entry unless the owner is the same. It was becoming obvious that he was winning with the longer odds entrant a lot of the time. This became a pretty good angle among cynical horseplayers as they assumed Baffert was playing games. But the HTR-consensus would often reveal the longer odds horse was the stronger play for Baffert by giving it a better TRN rank. Maybe Baffert was just doing his job and the bettors got it wrong.