Laurel Redboard Redux

[MtKen]

6th at Laurel today made for a decent day for me today. Used to avoid Laurel but since its on TVG & since Carl's hit yesterday I took a close look today.

EV1 (6/1 ML0) is going up against a semi-strong K1, the kind that usually gets a chunk of the exacta. K1 is 3/5.

Ev1 is #1 Prat by 1 over the favorite last out & by several over anyone else's last 2. This horse just improved off of a claim & I see the trainer is over 50% for 2nd off a claim.

So I'm thinking @ 4/1 I'll pound him & he's hovering around 10/1. Anyway he ends up winning & the K1 runs 2nd. $26.80 to win & $78.20 exacta with the huge favorite in a 7 horse race!

If Carl hadn't 'redboarded' yesterday I might not even had looked at LRL today. Thanks again Carl, I'm probably now the 2nd (maybe 3rd) most happy person that you hit that horse yesterday!

[hurrikane]

Nice shot Mt....

I had the little doggie in my p4...but alas...got killed in the next race by the huge bet down 8.
Carl has me checking the EV1s now too. As much as we play ev1s up here you would think it would be automatic.

As Glen would say...back to the salt mines.

[Carl]

Congrats Mt Ken. I'll take a $26 horsey any day of the week.

And yeah, the Ev1 stuff remains interesting.

For a couple of months after it first came out I started thinking the IMPACT early ESD was "better", but after last two months not so sure. EV1 gives you "different" horses, and some of the prices are anything but "indifferent"........

[Glen]

Carl, just curious...Do you play EDiff horses less than 8 advantage or limit your plays to those above a certain number. I don't keep my dB up to date any more....

[Carl]

Glen,

In my 16 spot plays, some "care" about esd number, some don't.

Why I made the post, I did so because I noted that the last couple of months, the spot plays I use that "don't care about the esd number" are doing better than those that do.

Of course this was not the case when we were first looking seriously at ESD numbers back in the late winter/spring. At that time +9 ESD number ruled.......

So what happens next? Donno, but they will definitely be running around in circles.... and I still like the +9 types, just that the "other kinds" of ev's have IMO outpreformed them of late with my spot plays.

[Glen]

Carl, that sounds similar to something I found earlier in the year about Male vs Female. If I recall correctly, males in the spring w/ ESD ruled. Then added previous years data and the total opposite was true....or vise versa, zig or zag, cut or jib...something that like or like that nothing. :confused: :confused: :confused:

[Carl]

Yeah,

Hard to know what is important and what is not. I have made a concious decision to ignore
1) Track condition.
2) Sex of horse.
3) Track being raced at.
4) (Almost in all plays) Class of horse.

Am I right? Quien Sabe?

But the truth is you have to ignore somethings to get a broad enough spectrum for a play to make sense. Hence I have chosen to ignore things most bettors consider to be "important".

[ERNIE2]

Glen: using the modeler only, I have found that "most" of the time there will be a worthwhile seperation between the sexes(win % and/or R.O.I.).......early in the year boys are best........later its the girls that I watch ........but let the modeler decide at todays track if I have a better chance of winning ...say this boy race or should I wait 30 minutes and bet more on the girls.........in the pen-n-paper days we only modeled by surface and distance .....and if you were really serous and a lot of time you modeled sex (always looking for.......... better if there was sex with a model to be had.......but thats another story) Ernie