Car payment

[2sonsandadaughter]

Lets say you are a smaller player. No more than $50 win wagers. The object is to win enough money to make my car and motorcycle payment each month. $364 and $228. The question is how would you attack this. Win wagers or exotics, show parlays. Pick 3 or Pick 4. I am more of an action player and I know this is killing my bottom line. Too many bets on bad horses. Any opinions? Thanks in advance.

Dan

[edw]

Your 2 payments total just shy of $600 per month.

If you have records that demonstrate you have a definite advantage in one or more areas of the game, you need only bet in those areas of advantage to accomplish your goal.

For example, if a review of your records shows that 20% of your win wagers succeed with a particular spotplay or in a particular comprehensive handicapping situation and produces a positive return on investment (ROI) of 10% ($1.10 returned for each dollar wagered), if you have 120 plays each month that you are comfortable wagering $50 each in, that $6,000 (120 x $50) through the windows each month will give you a $600 per month profit ($6,000 x 10%).

Technically speaking you need more plays and/or a higher ROI to account for normal fluctuations of success and failure of your spot play or handicapping situation, expenses, taxes, your need for action if you can't drop that side of your game cold turkey, etc. but I wanted the example above to be simple.

Regarding action plays. If you can eliminate them altogether or restrict them to a manageable, finite number and limit them to $2.00 wagers, for example, you can easily calculate what you will normally lose through them each month and add that figure to your $600 monthly obligations to come up with a new figure you have to strive for. If, on average, you will lose $100 each month on your action plays, add that to the $600 and you now have a figure of $700 you must net on your positive expectation plays to leave you with $600 to pay your bills. To achieve that based on the example above, you will need $7,000 (140 x $50) through the windows or 20 extra positive expectation plays each month.

It all starts with a solid understanding of where within the many, many opportunities each month your positive expectation and advantages lie. The higher the win% and the higher the ROI the more confidence you should have. Depending upon strengths and weaknesses, for most people win wagers with win percentages over 20% would likely have the greatest tendency for a relatively "smooth ride" while the exotics should produce more peaks and valleys but the ultimate success for you will depend on where your current strengths, advantages, and positive expectation(s) lie. If you don't have that information today, it's important that you start getting it so that you have a reliable roadmap to your success and a measure of confidence based on real solid information that you can achieve your goals.

[DanG]

Great advice by Ed here Dan imo;

Such a tough challenge to offer advice to someone else without knowing their strengths and weaknesses.

From a personal stand point I’ve found horse racing does not necessarily lend itself to “consistent” profits. It’s not punching a clock and writing your yearly salary in stone and planning accordingly. The profits come in unexpected cycles as do the down periods unfortunately.

That’s not to say some players don’t win more “consistently” then others. I know a very good player who has an extremely low hit rate (and I mean EXTREMELY low), but shoots for major scores.

This is certainly not for everyone and requires a psychological coat of amour; but he seems OK with it and when he rings the bell…it can be heard for miles. Of course; his approach requires the discipline of a Buddhist monk when it comes to handling his finances.

As Ed said so well; your passion for this game will carry you through all the necessary work and part of that work is record keeping. Not even close to the most enjoyable aspect; but still the #1 flaw in aspiring winning players imho.

Best of luck and respect those cars with blind spots enjoying your Harley!!! :)

[Donnie]

"Doctor, heal thy self!"

You already gave yourself the prognosis......I am more of an action player and I know this is killing my bottom line.

You are not gonna do it on a single bet, or just a few. Your psyche will not allow it. You are already aware of the symptoms...."Too many bets on bad horses." What defines a bad horse from a good one? What defines a bad bet from a good one? Do you have this cognitive realization BEFORE the race?

Everything the other two have said is spot on! I guess the good news is with your current approach, the pain won't last long. Within a month or two, the bank will own them once again. A part-time horseplayer should heed the axiom "never bet more than you can afford to lose." Or "never bet your food money". Does anyone else take this approach = Set a goal and then use horseracing to achieve that "outside" goal? I guess I have allows strived to make the money first, then decide what nice item would I like to spend it on.

Not saying it can't be done, but so much of wagering/gambling/winning/losing is pyschological. Reading between the lines of your post, I would gather you are a player who needs to win a few races, possibly, frequently. Adjust your focus to the bottom line instead. Don't worry about the number of wins. Worry about the value/investment/ROI aspects of your wagering. Is the horse worth the risk, or are you placing this next bet because you feel you have to place a bet? If you feel the latter, you're doomed anyway. Next time you are out on that bike and doing all that thinking, ask yourself what your REAL goals are......

BOL!

[njcurveball]

$600 a month profit is very achievable with $4,000 worth of win wagers.

During the month, you can easily find 400 horses if you have approximately 20 spot plays. You will need to test and keep records of all spot plays. Dan is an expert on "rotation", I go more with what wins at different tracks.

For example, I have a spot play which has over a 70% profit at Mountaineer after 50 starts. I bet more when a horse fits this at Mountaineer than at Charles Town where the same spot play has over 20 races and is losing a few pennies on a $2 bet. It has the same ROI to place (a lil over 1.90) so I am hoping it breaks through there.

There is NO cookie cutter 1-2-3-4 type system that will bring 15% profit on win bets in the long term. However with HTR there are so many great factors that you can build custom spot plays and either print a report from your database or use the robot.

There are NO action bets. If you like, use a separate bankroll for them. Build the spots and play them from around a $300 bankroll to start. Bet $10 per play and make sure your spot plays have a profit of over 20% and a win% over 10%.

Review them on a weekly basis and see where you can improve. I can tell you from 30+ years of experience BEFORE using HTR, that this program has the best tools to be a winner if YOU have the tools!

Check the spot play contest thread and don't be lured into exotics when you "need" money for payments.

Many also like to play "across the board", which has it's moments when you run 2nd and 3rd, but also will drain your bankroll when your horses are winning or running out.

Search the spot play thread for some great ideas and build and test your own!

400 bets at $10 is the $4,000 you need and a 15% profit will get you the $600 you mentioned.

Good luck to you!
Jim

[MikeDee]

I'm not sure why you are only considering your motorcycle and car payments. Why not bet even more and throw in your mortgage and property taxes as well?:D

[2sonsandadaughter]

Thanks for the great advice. Looks like I have some robot homework todo. Mikedee i didn't want to be greedy. This could be a great 2nd job if it works out. No comuting expenses and I don't have to get dressed. Thanks again.