AQU Showdown registration deadline noon Wed 10/31

[MikeDee]

AQU is running the showdown. Sudden death for 5 grand. You must pick one runner each day and that runner must fininsh ITM or you are out. If you miss a day your out.

check it out
http://nyra.com/aqueduct/default.asp

[Glen]

Thanks for the reminder Mike. For BEL I only made it to day 3. Thought I could make my pick 30 minutes to post instead of 1 hour. Will look to improve 2nd time out...

[MikeDee]

I lasted about 6 days....I don't have an excuse.....maybe we can do better.

[Victor]

I'm in. Thank you Mike. I forgot about this. I lasted to about day 13 at Belmont. Don't really know how.

For the most part, I looked for the horse with the largest HTR advantage over its field. This worked great until it didn't. I also tried to play small fields. In a word, I was a bridgejumper.

[Glen]

Todays card to me was difficult. My #4 in the 4th was good enough for 2nd. Bet there will be some heavy casualties today IMO. Steet Cry coming off a big layoff and the Le Bourget coming of 73 day layoff w/ a cruddy trainer. But I could be wrong...

[MikeDee]

Well I'm glad everyone who wanted got in, I registered but forgot about it this morning and didn't play....oh well maybe next time.....out without firing a shot:(

[Glen]

Good thing about that Mike is that is one less thing to worry about for the day.

Victor, you said largest HTR advantage over the field. Do you mean larges HTR consensus gap? Just curious...

[Glen]

Originally posted by Glen
Bet there will be some heavy casualties today IMO. Steet Cry coming off a big layoff and the Le Bourget coming of 73 day layoff w/ a cruddy trainer. But I could be wrong...

...I suck

[Victor]

Glen,

That's what I meant: Largest HTR consensus gap over its field. I played Le Bourget today. I know to win the $5000 will require at least (19) more correct selections. Is there a more predictive factor for show? At times I have used my own judgement which is in some ways more effective.

[Glen]

Victor,

That sounds like a real solid approach, especially for NYRA where HTR Consensus and PSCAN do real well. The approach I'll be taking for the most part is PSCAN 1 and AP1 on PL1. If one comes up, I'll look at the PP to make sure it is a legit and make sure the horse has not peaked or ran a freakish race. Also something that I wlll into consideration only at NYRA is the MLO. The NYRA MLO man is the king of all MLO Kings. The best in the business and he for some reason he knows something that a lot of us don't about those horses. Best of luck Victor. 13 is pretty impressive. I figure my over/under for mself is 9. Anything above is pure luck.

[George]

Victor.......I am a potential bridge-jumper at heart and have tested HTR extensively looking for best way to get value in the show pool. As a result also think I know best combo's of htr factors to get maximum in-the-money horses. Bad news is best combo found hits only 83% and "normal" streak is 15 in a row. Going beyond 15 requires judgement/and or/luck.

Glen is on the right track in thread above. The combo I would use is htr rank=1, pow rank = 1, (Ev rank 1 or 2 /OR/ Lv rank 1 or 2) and pscn diff less= -1.0
The above will hit around 83% itm.
Glen is correct on MLO at AQU so one might beware of any that qualify above at 12-1 :)
BOL!

[Donnie]

George,
Surprised to see in your factors above there is no consideration for trainer rankings...always thought that was a big part of your plays...?

[George]

Donnie....have found trainer to be key on longshot plays. The above is just something I found while looking at itm finishes. Interestingly, the above returns 4%, 4.5%, and 5% for win, place, show respectively. Not strong enough to actually play but thought it might help and/or confuse Victor. Not my intent to confuse him...but you never know :)