KM screen sort

[njcurveball]

I may have misread something, but I thought the KM screen was sorted by the K number?

The Derby 20 have some inconsistencies with this sort. What is this screen sorted by?


thanks,
Jim

[km]

KLine- no particular order if the ones at the bottom are 99.9 shots

[njcurveball]

Just looks funny with Colonel John all the way down there Ken. :eek:

[km]

I'll give the techie answer NJ, since i know you'll sympathize with a programmer :)

(K) could not be configured for 20 horse fields since there is only one such race per year at most. The distortion is obvious because the allocation of points for the rankings end at r=9 for the multiple regression formula that computes the (K) rating. (even though you'll sometimes see higher rankings displayed, such as on the VEL screen).

In a 20 horse field, more than half the horses will be r>=9 in the varoius factors, and that messes up the algorithm with so many getting 9 or more in most of their rankings. We don't have any long term sample data to raise the rank values in the formula to that level of computation with just one race per year that size.

The (K) and other interlocking formulas (such as HTR-Consensus) have not been an effective baramoter for the Derby and it is better to look at various individual factors and angles as Dan did with his elimination list to find the winners.

[njcurveball]

Totally understand Ken!

Figures complicated even more by all his races on wax track. I think Colonel John has a real shot in this field, and yet there really is no pace line to make him competitive.

Looking at the fig2 screen he ran an 18 to break his maiden and also ran an 18 to beat one of the best fields of 3 year olds put together this year.

In between he ran 18, 18, and 19.

Compare to Big Brown who just freaked a 10 from the impossible 12 post at Gulfstream and it appears he has no shot.

With Tiznow and Turkoman in the pedigree it would seem to be a slam dunk this horse "handles" dirt on big days.

Ran a quick query for horses with Morning Line of 4-1 or less and RK= 9. 0 for 21 doesn't look promising.

Still is a great game! ;)