Bc Wind?

[George]

Donnie.......thought it was interesting that announcer commented before the races that the 25 mph wind down the backstretch would hurt the frontrunners. Might explain the favorites, most of whom were frontrunners, melting down in nearly every race. We may have to start looking at Eric's weather data even when we are not playing PRM.

Amazed that HTR enabled me to have a decent day even though 5 of the 8 races were a complete mystery to me. Hit Unbridled Elaine as a "saver" bet plus cashed a nice exacta using Spook Express in F/M turf race. Also cashed on Tiznow. What a gutsy, talented horse!

Think Ken Massa deserves to win his own contest with his thoughts on OFFICER. I believed him but still picked the wrong horse. Hope Ken got it right.

A tougher than usual BC to pick but hope everyone enjoyed it as much as I did. :)

[MtKen]

George:

The wind was the same way Fri yet didn't seem to kill the frontrunners. It did look deeper or wetter or something although they talked about sealing it Thurs nite. Certainly helped the route closers on the main track. Made for some great stretch drives. Tiznow deserves lots of applause & he may race next yr again so kudos to his owners too.

A gutsy curtain call by Albert the Great who gave 1 of the better frontrunning efforts routing yesterday.

[Donnie]

As much as I hate to admit, those were my thoughts exactly George, as I turned on the TV and the first thing they were talking about was the driving wind, I thought, "Damned! Nearly all my choices should be out there on the lead! And they just said it would hurt the frontrunners!"

In case you haven't noticed, I didn't pick one winner yesterday. All the same, a most enjoyable day watching the races.

Have to agree on your statement of Ken winning the prize! Officer was finally challenged, and I was disappointed to see Came Home had to be the one to push him around the track! I wanted him to be just off the lead! Ohhh well, I think Carl said they'd be running around in circles again tomorrow!

One side note...real impressed with the talent of the European contingent. Normally I dismiss them. Looks like they are figuring it out!

[George]

Donnie........yeah think the Europeans have it figured out which will make it real tough on American bettors. Maybe we will get better figs on them in future but I doubt it. Only Euro I have ever cashed was Arcangue in '92 at 133-1 and that was because I mis-read the program and called the wrong number at the window. :)

[Donnie]

George,
As long as you're calling the winner, does it matter if the number is right or not? ;)

I continue to be amazed how some folks can pick those Euros with limited information. On the tube yesterday they were tracking the betting in England and the money was definitely falling on the winners. Do they zero in on breeding? Owners? Trainers? Jocks? Finish? Trip notes? Weight on/off? Company? And more-so, can they win consistently?

I know next year I need to figure out a way to track the Euros or get a heads-up on them. Or just not bet the races in which they run. Good point of yesterday...? I couldn't make it to the track so it was a break even day...would have been a dissaster had I attended!

BOL.

[MtKen]

Donnie:

I definately plan to find out the line from the English books next year as they were dead on about Banks hill vs. Lailani & Sakhee vs. Galileo. Carl probably knows a site where they post the odds. All I heard about Johannesberg was that he was the best since Arazi--I did dutch him with Came Home. Should have taken that more literally. There still is a 2yo Super Horse, makes for an even more interesting Triple Crown next year.

George: Congrats on Arcangue...probably would have been 150/1 if you wouldn't have pounded him down :) The only thing that convinced me more about Officer's vulnerability than KM's article was that he wasn't even a weak K1 favorite.

[Bruce]

1. On the Euros, check out www.globeform.com

2. On the wind, I don't think it made much difference. Corey Nakitani was quoted before the races as saying it was b.s., that people say it all the time, but it doesn't really matter.
The wind, however, might have indirectly caused the frontrunners to lose by making the track deep and loose, the proverbial "cuppy."
Wind will only make a difference, IMHO, in the dead of winter at Northeast tracks when the wind chill is in the single digits or so.


Bruce

[long lost fred]

The on line racing form had Timeform numbers (European Beyers) I assume that the paper edition did as well. BRIS had one British bookie line. Great call by Ken on Officer (he has sprinter profile). Approx 10 years ago Bertrando, Officer sire, was beat by Arazi and on Sat his son got beat by a very good Euro horse.......strange game....I'm pleased to return to HTR.Since the Ky Derby I bet once at Saratoga got to track late and missed big score.I took it as an omen and Sat was my return......found I now view things differently.......Regards to all....Fred B (LLFRED):)

[delayjf]

I got to go to Belmont this past Saturday for the Breeders Cup, flying into LaGuardia looking down on the rubble that use to be the world trade center was really sombering.
My thoughts
- How anybody can say the wind had no effect is beyond me, If human runners can draft off each other, so can horses. The laws of physics applies to everybody. In addition,I heard all week from various reports from Belmont that the rail has been bad for the past two weeks, That, along with the back stretch head wind doomed the front runners. As close as I could tell, none of the fractions were that fast in any of the races.

Heres a tip that might help you handicapping euro horses.
I have found through personal observation that the timeform ratings tend to run about 8 points higher than the Beyer figures that the same horses earn in the US. However; when the timeform rating gets to be around the 125 to 130 range, the adjustment seems to be around 12 to 15 points. I came to these conclusions by observing winning / competive performances of European horses and comparing their timeform rating out of these races to the winning/competitive Beyer ratings earned in the US. Sounds crude, but I've gotten some nice prices with this method. Check it out for yourself.

I had two winners Unbridled Elaine and Val Royal, which is a record for me as I usually don't do well in these races.
Jdelay

[Glen]

This whole wind thing is pretty amazing. For better or worse, I'm going to log the wind stats for Lone Star at the next meet. Maybe create another field in access or something. Golfers say TX wind is some of the worst in the nation. Also they say the strong winds down here are the reason why so many Pro golfers are from here. Dunno if that is true...but I've seen my golf balls do some crazy things in the air.

On a side note...did BEL really have a bad rail or was it a product that front runners usually grab the rail? Me thinks it is the latter and not so much a bad rail. Now early running sprinters dominated the race. Perhaps because they did not have to run against the wind but for a couple furlongs vs the routers who had to run several furlongs against the wind.

[Bruce]

Glen,
Belmont is famous for having a bad rail in the fall meet. Take it from me, the rail was
bad. You can also tell by seeing how the jockeys were trying to maneuver
their horses off the rail with pace setters going two wide.

bruce

[Cliff]

Glen,

I think you'll find that the wind out at LSP is a factor. Now, whether or not you can quantify it and track it is another matter.

Seems like it's most obvious when frontrunners turn for home against a real strong blast from the east. There are no tall buildings or anything out there to break up the currents and any effect seems to be more pronounced right in front of the grand stands.

Remember when the parachuters got caught in some nasty currents awhile back? Maybe George or Tommy C. have some thoughts?

Cliff

[tbrown]

I have to confess that I used Mark Crammer's reports from Europe to nail several nice
horses in the BC. All year, I have read his reports at turfpedia.com (Jim Quinn's site)
and I subscribe to the Crammer X newsletter. He has a website for late breaking news and posted some good insights into the races, as late as Thursday, from Paris.
I don't know if he will there next year, but he watched most of the horses run all year and has a real good handle on the class over there.
Totally the opposite of high-tech, computer programs and databases, but at least he is knowledgable player.

[Eric]

Hi Folks,

Unfortunately, I missed the entire BC due to our cable being kaput (ironically, wind was the culprit having downed some wires) and was in the middle of building a new PC. Anyway, with respect to the effect of wind, I'm still trying to amass sufficent historical data to be able to quantify it. I must say though, the more I think about HOW to do that once I have the data, the more I think obtaining the data will be the EASY part by comparison. Regardless, I believe it'll be an interesting excercise even if I'm unable to nail it down in statistical terms. If any of you have any ideas or suggestions on HOW to apply historical weather (wind) data to race results, I'd be most appreciative. The programming part I can easily handle - it's the mathematical logic of the process/problem that I'm struggling with. i.e. to DEFINE the problem in terms of WHAT the program needs to compute/analyze given the subjective nature of how the races were actually run.

Having said that, I agree 100% with others that have commented about drafting - whether it's humans, horses or nascar. The laws of physics DO apply. While I don't believe there's much of a "vacuum" in the traditional sense of "drafting", like a NASCAR race, I do think the frontrunner can and does act as a wind break or buffer for the horse immediately behind him. Regardless of how you slice it (my opinion), a horse immediately behind a frontrunner should have to expend less overall energy than the frontrunner to get to the same position on the track all else being equal. Another, subjective element, whether or not drafing is involved is the "heart" of the horse. Example: try running directly into a strong headwind sometime (younger HTRers only!) and you'll have an appreciation for what the contestents are experiencing under those conditions. Also, as noted by another HTRer, temperature, particularly in the Northeast during the winter, will (I believe) play an important part. I think it has as much to do with the horse's ability to breathe as it does with the effects of windchill though. Extremely cold temperatures and weak lungs are not a good mix.

Another thing I've enjoyed watching over the years is HOW a rider deals with wind. Watch the physical position of a (good) jockey given the differences in wind direction and velocity and note how his/her position changes.

Bottom line? I think wind (whether blowing or simply the resistence and temperature of air itself) can and does, play an important part in the outcome of a race. What I'm wrestling with is specifically HOW to quantify the myriad of variables in mathematical terms

later ...

Eric

[hurrikane]

Interesting topic. I'm not sure you can 'quantify' the data as Eric wonders. Even with the track orientation and wind direction..unless you are at the track first hand it will be hard to tell how much it really effects the horses.

A little story from the past...I once calced a top speed fig (before they had speed figs for everyone) on a speedster called Bob Hancock at Lrl. Went to the track with the specific intention of 'pulling the trigger' as George would say. While waiting for the race to begin I was talking with a guy whose opinion I respected and he put a little bug in my ear about the wind on the backstretch (about 25mph that day) and I shouldn't bet a front runner into the wind. Well, needless to say...I backed way off by initial bet intentions and watched the horse win by 8 lenghts at 8-1. What should have been a 1600 win was 400 bucks. So...I may not jump on the wind bandwagon..but I will listen to any results you may find.

[delayjf]

Hurrikane,
Great story( misery loves company), not sure that the wind by itself alone did the front runners in. I think the track itself had a lot to do with it. Could have been your figure horse was that much better than the rest of the field?? I found most of these races very competitive. I was there, and the flags in the infield where standing straight out as stiff as a board, and these are not small flags.
delayjf

[Glen]

Yeah Cliff, I do remember that failed bit....Guess we won't see that one again...

LS sprinters stunk going w2w during the last meet. Something like 15% to 20% winners....

[Donnie]

Ok ok!! You guys are going to force me to go thru all my old zip disks to find a quantitative (?)study someone on the Derby List did concerning wind and it's effect on horseracing. Tech, yet very informative! Some very conclusive information. But, what happens if the wind just dies as the gate springs open...what I look for is the driving winds. I also look for the flags flying straight out. When that happens at PRM, "P" and "S" horses dominate! I have had many excellent days by watching the weather and laying off the frontrunners on windy days...unless of course the wind is at their backs down the backstretch!!

If I find it, I will post it this evening! It is lengthy!

[George]

Cliff......if wind is a factor anywhere then Texas would sure have to be near the top of the list. And that is not even taking all the blowhards into account. I think it does have an effect but don't factor it into my handicapping.

Eric.......seems to me that wind,temp, humidity, track surface are already quantified in the drf daily variant. If one bothered to collect the weather data off the internet it should be relatively simple to test and create a quantitive factor. One could retrieve all drf variants for say 8 furlongs at BEL for 36 degree days. Then 37 degrees on up. Averaging the variants by degree days would show whether temperature had any positive and negative effect and by how much. Wind would be a little harder as one would have to determine what wind direction most affected the type race being studied and then test for that wind.

Not sure what if any value doing the above exercise would have over and above the existing variants that are already collected. Believe the numbers we use in HTR are adjusted for variant by Cramer and may even already contain a windage adjustment for all I know. Think I
will be lazy and let Cramer do all the work.

[delayjf]

George,
Agreed that the wind would be reflected in the Varient as it relates to time, but the varient would not reflect the effect of the wind on the various runners or the various segments of the race like the final quarter which in the case of Belmont Park this past Sat was run with a 20-25 mph tail wind. Having said all that, calculating the overall impact may be a bridge to far or best left to the raggies.
delayjf

[Eric]

Back again Folks,

... a lot of great comments and thoughts about the effects of wind. The more I read what you all have said and I think about the (perhaps) futile exercise in trying to quantify the beast, I've come up with another brain far_. I'm probably putting the cart before the horse (since I don't know yet if I could even pull it off) but would you find the ability to see a "live" rendition of what the wind was doing at any given time at any track useful? I'd have to dust off my Java/ Java Script books but I ***MIGHT*** be able to cook up something at my site that would, for example, display an image, say of a race track, with an wind indicator superimposed showing the current direction and velocity when clicked. In any event it will be a little while before I can cut some free time loose for the research and programming but maybe that would be a more useful and meaningful project instead of trying to dabble with the "numbers" themselves.

What 'cha think?

Eric

[Glen]

Sounds good to me Eric for online play. For the live meet, I'll invest in a striped beanie propeller hat with wind direction rudders and barometer.

[tbrown]

I read somewhere - may it was this board?- about a guy at simulcasting that checked out the
flag during the playng of the National Anthem to see how strong the wind was and which way it was blowng. Problem was, the shot of the flag was on tape-they played it every day!