Day 10, Thurs. Race 10 @CD

[George]

Thought about Lone Star but the 10th CD looks like a longshot race!

[Carl]

Horse #4, Alt #5. These early nESPD types have been good in contest so far, so why not?

(Gonna try to do Mike's four letter word tomorrow, gonna go to W-O-R-K. I guess as long as I don't make a habit of it, not all bad, and I am sure the horseys will remember to run around in circles without me watching. BTW, Ladbroke/Youbet has as of yesterday cut Ontario off from CH and HOL, and these guys wonder why money goes off-shore......)

[Neil]

I'm not finding much in the modeler to help me out. 4 horse looks interesting - until you see the 5 year layoff. I'm going to try #7 Ciudad Del Sol (8-1) - stalker, which has pos roi, and I like a horse that tries. Also like the trainer. Horse that scares me the most is #5.
Horse I would not leave out in a pick 3 or late double is #1 - those are some serious works at Keeneland. Looks like a l/s trainer, too. {added at 12:15pm... I dunno about that #1... don't you imagine the trainer is at Keeneland because it is equidistant from CD and RD? And I just have a suspicion the horse is better suited to company at RD than CD... naw, I'd leave the #1 horse off my tickets}

Neil

[George]

Neil.........excellent analysis. Think maybe Jon Court could surprise on #12 in this. Don't like the long layoff though.

Jockey runstyle matchups:
Horse Jockey RS St Win Pct Roi
8 Lottery Ticket Kuntzweiler P 5 1 20 1.08
12 Metfield Court P 15 3 20 .79
11 Forty Wins Day E 16 3 19 .81
7 Cuidad Del Sol Dasilva S 18 2 11 .88
13 Stormin Oisea Borel S 20 1 5 .21

[hurrikane]

Tough race...lot of horses coming out of retirement it seems. without them it looks like the 4.
One of these times I'm going to actually bet one of these. ..maybe today is the day.

#4
alt #10

Carl, good luck with the w**k

[George]

Some scratches and jockey changes. 12.13.14 scratched
#8 gets v. flores and #9 gets d. meche.


Jockey runstyle matchups only have 2 now.

Jockey runstyle matchups:

Horse Jockey RS St Win Pct Roi
11 Forty Wins Day E 16 3 19 .81
7 Cuidad Del Sol Dasilva S 18 2 11 .88

#11
alt #7

[Glen]

System Test Day #3

Horse........Points
1..............1
2..............10
3..............1
4..............6
5..............8
6..............6
7..............13
8..............0
9..............7
10.............3
11.............3

#7
Alt #4

Noticed the last 5 non maidens at this distance had a Lv1-4.

[ronnie h]

let try #11 alt 7

[Neil]

Well, kick me in the head. 2, alt. 5.

Neil's alter-ego

referring to how these program numbers have done today:

1st: win 2 pl 5
2nd 9/4
3rd: win 5
4th: win 2
5th: win 2
6th: win 5
7th: 9/1
8th: win 2 pl 5
9th: place 2

Donna Barton Brothers said she liked looks of 7 & 10 in paddock.

[Glen]

#7

[Neil]

Forty Wins (Day) won.

Alter ego and I threw out 2, 5, & 7... neither of which hit the board.

Way to go, Reddy & George

Neil:D

[MtKen]

George:

Your ROI is getting more difficult to figure daily. Doesn't Bris offer jock/RS stats? Maybe that is something Ken M. can investigate for a newsletter report.

[George]

Reddy, congrats! You get to call tomorrow's track. Please don't throw a turf race at me!

MtKen, roi is getting dangerously close to "breakeven". Am sure KM's provider HDW does jockey runstyles but think there is a fairly high charge for that data. Bris may also do it now since they get their data from the same place.

Runstyle at CD today hit race 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10 for $4, $30, $12, $16, $5, $9.

[MikeDee]

Carl,
Sorry to hear about your urge to go to the "W" word. Take 2 aspirin, get a good nights' sleep and maybe you will come to your senses by morning!

[George]

Would like to thank Glen for initiating the daily capping contest.
It has taught me that my use of computer plays has created a
lot of "rust" with my handicapping skills. Getting a little better
with the practice in the contest.

Also would like to mention that while I have been stressing
jockey and horse runstyle matchups that is merely because
it interests me at the moment. Have looked at many things
using normal HTR for each race. Have not went into much
detail because wanted to leave "bandwidth" on the thread
for Rhonda's wordy messages.

Yesterday at CD race 10 initially thought they would run
13,7,11,9,8. The #13 was on my "horsewatch" list. Would
love to know why they scratched him. A scratch? goes in
my watchlist notes.

The jockey changes removed #8 from contention and the
change to Donnie Meche on #9 worried me. He is an
excellent jockey but stats indicated he does not do well
on R type horses.

Had no stats by runstyle on Eddie Martin on #3.

Looking hard at PRAT both speed and record at the distance
concluded winner would be #11 or #7. Jockey edge went #11.
Final ranking was 11,7,9,3.

Bet #11 to win and $2 exacta key 11/3,7,9.
Ran 11,9,3 so one of those rare times where they read my script.

From the results chart put #7 and #3 on my "watchlist".
Cuidad Del Sol was taken out of the race when bumped at the start.
Shuailaan Gone #3 was 9 wide and was closing well.
Either horse could easily win their next race.

Hope I didn't take up too much of Rhonda's space here:)

[Glen]

George,

Whats that saying?...The best girlfriends are the ones with no teeth, don’t speak and yada yada yada...lol. Actually she is a real chatty in person...

I really enjoy our little handicapping contest. Don’t really look at it like a contest but more like batting practice or going to the golf driving range to work on the swing. It really presents an opportunity to focus on a specific race and practice/test methods or new ways to handicap. Don’t really care If I end up winning but just hope I learn something along the way.

The Jockey dB thing you are doing is really interesting. I wanted to ask you how go about keeping track of the jock stats.
Do you:
1) Just query as you go?
or
2) Keep a spreadsheet of the data?

I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet of each jockey at a particular track and creating something that looked like this

George......... Sprints...............Routes..............Turf
F......................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
E.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
P.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
S.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
R.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI


Mike D........... Sprints...............Routes..............Turf
F......................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
E.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
P.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
S.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI
R.....................win%/ROI.........win%/ROI..........Win%/ROI

And so on...
Got a better idea on how to set this up? Anybody else feel free to chime in.

Thanks,
Glen

[George]

Glen.....am a very lazy person so am doing this:
1) loading all tracks and results into an All_impc.dbf daily
2) once a month export a comma-delimited text file from All_impc.dbf containing records for each jockey. Each record has jky-name, dist-surf, runstyle, finish, $won.
3) wrote a prog to sort/summarize by jky, d/s, rs, starts, wins, win-pct, roi and create another comma
delim file with a "header" record.
4) delete my "old" jockey db records.
5) import the summary records into jockey db creating an up to date db.
6) jockey db is "joined" to All_impc by jky, d/s, rs.
7) can then run a daily query by track/date after the day's download of data and get a report of jockey stats by trk, race, horse, prg#, mlo, etc.

Really not very difficult, just had to think about it a while. Just beginning to do some other queries based on the stats. Kind of interesting just to browse the jockey data. Many are not successful at any style.
Have noticed they seem to be aware of what they do well. Many of the better jockeys take most of their rides on the distance and rs that they have been having good luck at.