FG race 7 Superfecta price for 12/27

[njcurveball]

OK, if this paid $85,000 for a $2 bet I need to know, because I am so quitting my job and playing the Fairgrounds! When you can turn a $79 trifecta into $85,000 simply by putting a 29-1 fourth I need to be there!

11 Mad Flatter................ $4.40 $3.20 $2.40
12 Unbridled Vicar............ $5.40 $3.20
6 Boss Lafitte............... $3.00

P3 4-6-11 $426.20
EX 11-12 $21.60
C3 4-9-11 $27.80
C3 4-10-11 $27.80
SF 11-12-6-10 $85420.00
TF 11-12-6 $79.40

[Donnie]

Jim-
Probably reported as a .10 super, but with the decimal place in the wrong position. Don't quit your day job over an $800 super!

[David-LV]

It appears that the only winners in this super were the people that had it for 10 cent, making the payoff $427.10 per 10 cent super.

______________
David


7th race - Fair Grounds - December 27, 2007

Off at: 3:29 Race Type: Allowance Video Race Replay
Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Value of Race: $41,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:45.87
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
11 Mad Flatter Robby Albarado 4.40 3.20 2.40
12 Unbridled Vicar Corey J. Lanerie 5.40 3.20
6 Boss Lafitte Jamie Theriot 3.00
Also ran: 10 - Sinister , 1 - Knotty Knotty , 2 - Highvale , 13 - Sagaponack , 3 - Thebob , 8 - Two Cats , 4 - Moody Jones
Scratched horses: Ship's Piano , Free Fighter , Sr. Henry

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff

$2 Pick 3 4-6-11 (3 correct) 426.20
$2 Exacta 11-12 21.60
$2 Consolation Pick 3 4-9-11 (3 correct) 27.80
$2 Consolation Pick 3 4-10-11 (3 correct) 27.80
$2 Superfecta 11-12-6-10 85,420.00
$2 Trifecta 11-12-6 79.40
Winning Breeder: Bonnie Heath Farm, LLC
Winning Owner: Bonnie Heath Farm, LLC, et al
Winning Trainer: Jeffrey D. Thornbury

[Donnie]

Jim-
So it was even worse! As David pointed out, that was a $2 payoff, not a $1 payoff! You would had to have the .20 Super to collect the $800!! :D

[njcurveball]

It appears that the only winners in this super were the people that had it for 10 cent, making the payoff $427.10 per 10 cent super.

______________
David



If the payoff is $427 for a dime, that is still only $8,540 for $2.

Does Equibase ignore any error checking? Certainly a Super Payoff above $50,000 should trigger some flag?

I will also say that even at $427 for a dime this Super was HUGE! The Trifecta paid $79 and there are 7 other horses left to put 4th (10 horse field)? That makes the Super price around $600, certainly NOT $8,000!

The Superfecta pool was $34,388 and the favorite won the race with the 4th choice 2nd and the 2nd choice 3rd. No one there had it for a $1 bet? Perhaps if the pool was $4,000 I would believe that. But with 3 of the top 4 choices making up the trifecta, it is hard to believe.

I recently had a similar Super at Mountaineer and I think it paid $150!!!


I am thinking like Donnie said, it really is an $854 payoff with a bad decimal point typo. I don't play Fair Grounds on work days, but if they have prices like this, I may need to take some breaks at work. ;-)

Jim

[njcurveball]

You would had to have the .20 Super to collect the $800!! :D

That would be at $8,000 Donnie.

This payoff said $80,000, so a dime bet is worth $4,000 then!

[David-LV]

I stand corrected make that payoff $4271 for each lucky 10 cent super winner.
That is providing that the $85,420 figue was accurate in the first place.

__________
David

[njcurveball]

I stand corrected make that payoff $4271 for each lucky 10 cent super winner.
That is providing that the $85,420 figue was accurate in the first place.

__________
David


That was my whole point David. The favorite WON the race. That alone is usually enough to at least get $2 in winning tickets. With only $34,000 in the pool and a 20% take, that leaves around $27,000 to pay off people.

So if the payoff is correct, there were less than $1 in winning tickets in a race where 3 of the top 4 favorites ran 1,2,3. Very hard to believe.

The 4th horse was not even 30-1.

Take this result from Mountaineer as an example, favorite wins (4-5), 2nd is 18-1 and 3rd is 47-1. Yet, there are still 3 winning $1 tickets in a $26,000 pool.


http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MNR122207USA.pdf

Jim

[OPM]

Yes, Jim:
Supa are best played in SCAL and Lousiana in my opinion. However, the racing is very difficult to figure(:D) in LA if you get my drift. However, you will be paid if correct.

[DanG]

However, the racing is very difficult to figure(:D) in LA if you get my drift. However, you will be paid if correct.
As Rick will verify…

“What happens in Louisiana…stays in Louisiana.” ;) ;)

Snap snap, grin grin, wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more…~ Monty Python
http://ex-donkey.mu.nu/images/nudge.jpg

[MVM]

I just watched the race replay of this event (27Dec07FG7).

The $1.00 (one dollar) superfecta payout was shown on the television monitors as $427.10.

Looks like someone completely forgot to enter the decimal point (rather than shifting it 1 spot).

As for Donnie's advice about not quitting a day job, that probably applies even more so to the dime payout of $42.71 in this case.

[DanG]

As for Donnie's advice about not quitting a day job, that probably applies even more so to the dime payout of $42.71 in this case.
Unless you’re earning $42.50 a day…;) :D

[njcurveball]

The $1.00 (one dollar) superfecta payout was shown on the television monitors as $427.10.



Thanks for the confirmation! This price makes much more sense. I will go in and change my database now, before I work a Superfecta strategy and think I have one that shows a HUGE profit because of this race.

[BillW]

Thanks for the confirmation! This price makes much more sense. I will go in and change my database now, before I work a Superfecta strategy and think I have one that shows a HUGE profit because of this race.

This is a Ron Tiller issue too (unless the chart has already been corrected ;) )

Update: the incorrect data is still in the file.

[Ron Tiller]

I reposted the FG charts for Dec 27th at 10:45am EST. I manually changed the payout to $854.20 and notiified Equibase.

I check for whacky wps payoffs but do little for whacky exotics prices. Its tricky to avoid getting a lot of false positives. In this case, the superfecta payoff was 1000 times the trifecta payoff, which is a good tipoff.

I'll fiddle around with some ideas. Thanks again to the ever vigilant HTR crowd.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[BillW]

Thanks Ron! And Happy New Year to you and the rest of the HTR gang!