pace line selection

[ronnie h]

what pace line is the best for b.c.
if you use last line some horses were not not push in last race
some ran a life best may not repeat.what do you guys think?

[tbrown]

I will use, for any legit contender, the best race, at the highest class, at a similar distance.
In the Classsic, I insit on 10f or longer Gr1 wins. In the sprint, I will use a 6f line, but I like horse that have won powerfully at 7f and better yet, at a 1m16. I think Quinn called them Power Sprinters a few years ago.
For the mile, I will only use races up to 1m16 and use the best last fraction from the last six races at Gr1 or 2 only. For the Turf, I will use nothing under 10f.

Tom

[MtKen]

I try to figure what the EP might be for today's race & use the most appropriate current line for the horses under 4/1 M/L...for the longer odds horses I make pick a later race if I think they have a shot. I like to 1st look at the Prat screen to see who really has a chance.

[Val]

MtKen -- How far do you consider back do you consider legitimate in Prat to check out figures for a contender?
If I see 4-5 races in the immediate past around the same class at numbers below a cluster of good figures in the last half of performance ratings, I steer clear. I would like your thoughts.
Thanks

[MtKen]

Val:

If i think the lower odds horses will be vulnerable I will look deep into the longshot's pps. If, as you say, they have already failed several times in similar situations I'll pass. Lots of times, though, the trainer is either trying different conditions, class etc before the horse gets put back into today's situation. If the pace in the horse's last races doesn't match today's probable pace then I'll definately look farther back. Obviously if a frontrunner or stalker looks to get a softer pace that is great & conversely if an s or r horse has been running against soft paces lately it might move up against a speed duel.

the better the horse's odds the more inclined i am to make an excuse for a paceline--also if a horse is 2nd to 3rd out of of a break I'll consider the chance for improvement if it has back figs or class.

i love the Prat screen to get a quick picture of a horse's ability...obviously if the horse's only contending fig is its 8th race back then its almost always going to get stomped. if it has a cluster of good figs at the lower 1/2 of its pps then I'd try to understand the horse's problem.
Sometimes there are good excuses for bad figs & sometimes there are reasonable explanations for reversals---horses for courses, reunited with a favored jock or trainer, a big milkshake from the vet (kidding-how would we find out?), a favorable pace set-up etc.

Yesterday I had a spot play come up with a horse who looked terrible & was 17/1 & I almost didn't play it because it didn't looked like a contender in ANY of its races--today was a 5 fur. turf race & the horse had ran well at lower class a few races back but with poor prats. I did play it because of the fear it would win & I'd go ballistic & it ran 2nd completing a nice exacta with 1 of the co-favorites. W/O the db I never would've picked this horse...p-scan horses under -5 rtg, moving up in class & long odds are the main features of this play.

I'm starting to look more at the prat screen just to learn more about cycles. Think its a way to improve my play. We'll see...