Day 9, Wed. Race 7 @CD

[Glen]

Remember to keep track of your ROI.

[Glen]

George,

Your post on Jockey dB is motivating me...Ran some numbers on Pat Day on Turf w/ S Running Style horses

7/47
14.89%
-59.57 ROI
$5.43 Avg Mutual

Now same as above w/ MLO<=2.5
2/9
22%
-66.67 ROI
$3.00 Avg Mutual

Lets hope that they hammer his horse today.

[MtKen]

I'll take #11.....21% sire vs. Pat Day on a favorite with a below par speed rating on the turf.

3 or 4 for alternate......tails, I'll take the 4.

George: I didn't mean to imply that a "George's weak K1" was anything but a K1 that didn't meet your criterion for a K1 spot play. I wish he had been a 'strong' K1 or ,at least, ran more like one. Defering to Mark Cramer, I always look for droppers in those lowest rung claiming races. I should query those races for droppers & see how they actually do.

I'm hanging in there with my 1 $59 winner---though, I had a $14 place horse, too---in 7 bets.

Win Roi--4.21

[Neil]

bugger - scratched - pass


I'll try #2 Caveolin (20-1).
ran OK at Del Mar on the turf in debut, is a half to Kim Loves Bucky (with same breeder).

Neil

[#3, Lady Brigand colt is interesting... winners I found from the dam were sprinters - Proven Cure, e.g., but breeder is trying to provide stamina with Dynaformer as the sire]

I'm 0-1-1 for three bets

[Carl]

Auto play, #4. If he scratches, I'll handicap sorta.

I would start a new thread for ROI's if I had a winner, but since my ROI is so easy to do so far I won't. Oh heck, I'll start one anyway, maybe it will turn things around for me. Anyone else wants to join it would be great, maybe it will inspire me. If you don't, I understand, afraid those 0-0-0 type stats might rub off right?

[hurrikane]

well...this will be a guess

#11
alt #2

Carl, Ive never found a stat in HTR that works consistantly on turf for a spot play. What fig have you found most useful

Maybe I'll bet on of these friggin things..that should turn it around

[hurrikane]

well...they scratched both of my horses so the new picks

#3
alt #8

[Glen]

Well, the only two horses I liked were scratched(#2 and #11). Now the #4 has a clear early pace advantage but don't think that is a good mix w/ CD turf. But what the heck..

#4 Top pick
#7 Alt

[MikeDee]

no1
alt 5

[Donnie]

2, 11, 12, & 14 have all been scratched!

I have to go with the #4 (with #1 as my alt). Look at his turn time using paceline 1. Hard telling with only one race! But the works look nicely spaced and long enough! The trainer is 20% on the second shot, sire is 15%, with 12% first-timers on turf. Top trainer as per Impact, and once again we see one of my favorite Impact patterns...eSP horse has decisive lead (+13) and is at least 5-6 points better in the ATT column over the second ranked eSP horse (+13 in this case!) Don't know how well it will do on the turf, but this appears to set up for a wire-to-wire win, if the jock can get him to settle on the lead! Doocy is a good jock! Ohhhhh, just noticed on Impact...L2 as well!! Liked the 13 as well, but too much time off between races.

What do I like about the #1...? His color!! LOL

I may have to get a couple of live dollars down on this one!

(But then, again, I could be wrong!!)

Good luck to all!

[George]

Turf! Ugh!


#5
alt #7


Carl is keeping track of both our roi's. He only has to remember one number.

[Donnie]

Glen,

Last year 50% of the 9F Turf races were won by the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd early horse. I think the 4 has a real shot in here! Don't think you will get 12-1, but 7 or 8-1 would be pleasant! Also, don't forget, early speed is somewhat more dominant in Maiden races. My fingers are gonna be crossed on this one!

Good Luck!:cool:

[ronnie h]

lets try #11 alt 4

[Donnie]

Hey Reddy!
I believe the 11 is a scratch....wanna pick another?

[Glen]

George shoots and scores!

[George]

That race really hurt me. Had to choose between my two favorite jockeys Pat Day and Jon Kent Court. They did run 1-2.

The other pain is Carl can't possibly remember both our roi's now.

[Carl]

Yeah, I'll never remember your ROI now George. Congrats on the winner, liked the way you did it playing Day right after Glen said all those mean things about Pat on turf closers. Great game this one, that's for sure, albeit humbling at times. Probably the only one Pat Daywill win on a turf favorite this meet. But you never know......

later,
Carl (still able to keep track of his contest ROI in his head, and still happy 'cause one of the good nESPD's +11 ev1/Xf1 paid $29 in the second at SUF today. And I even "treaded water" after that.)

[Glen]

Yeah, that was funny. Johnny Court actually had the best jockey/RS stats in my dB for the race. Had 1.22 ROI or something...

[MtKen]

George:

Good one; this doesn't mean we're back on the turf (ugh!) tomorrow does it?

When I looked at my CD modeler there wasn't a top pace factor over 15% winners.

[George]

MtKen..........you probably will never see me select a turf race for the contest. Have proven to myself many times that I should never play a turf race. My turf solution is to pass on them.

Have noticed over the last year that HTR first turf sire stats hit some real bombs. Not brave enough to play based on that though.