Does Weight Matter?

[MtKen]

When a horse gets a large ( at least 5 lbs) weight advantage vs. the field and/or favorites & it is lower than the horse's recent loads does it affect your handicapping?

[MtKen]

i posted this poll because I had a crappy day yesterday & noticed, in particular, a $99 3yo that finished in front of my 3 selections & ruined a good exacta/trifecta.

so I spent sometime checking on the big winners yesterday & found a few with these things in common:

1: weight off--all several lbs. from what they had been carrying recently & some with their lowest load ever by a few lbs.
2: a significant advantage over the field or favorites---often 10+ over the favorites!
3: young horses running vs. older horses--these were mainly 3yos capable of big improvement due to their growing maturity combined with the weight advantage. I noticed a good 4yo winner too.
4: big odds--didn't look at anything less 9/1

examples from Sat 10/20

1-WO R8--$99.60--8F Turf Stks--3yo carrying 111 lbs (114 most before) & 13 lbs less than the fav hung out in post 12 & a horse I avidly bet against......Horse wired the field despite being about 8th ranked F1. Had to improve about 5 prat points to contend. Switch to a 300+ jock & Blinkers on. Lone 3yo in field.

2-Med R7--$46.60--6f NW1 alw--111 lbs vs 116 for fav. @ least 6 lbs lighter than last 5 races.
3yo vs 3yos & 4yos. #2 Cramer in last 90 days!!

3-LAD r6--$35.60--8.5f stks---109 lbs (5 less than anything in its pps) vs 119 & 120 for 7/5 & 9/5 M/L favorites. Lone 3yo in 6 horse field. Switch back to 300+ rated jock. Best prat of 14 for 3yo vs. 7's & 8's for favorites!

4-HST R8--$21.60--8K clmr @ 6.5f--104 lbs--got 8 lbs on the field! Horse carried 10 lbs less than it had in its last 6 races. Had a lifetime best of 25 Prat last out & it looked like a 22 or 23 would win today. Won by a nose over a horse carrying 117 lbs. Beat a field of 3yos to 5yos.

This could just be coincidence but I didn't see all that many young horses that fit this mold yesterday. But i think there are some sharp trainers out there pointing these young horses for spots where they have an advantage.

My favorite export factors are quickly becoming trainer moves: blinkers off & class rises as opposed to the horse performance ratings themselves.

Wish list for KM:

I'd like to see a weight off notation when a horse is dropping lbs vs. its normal load or vs. the field or favorite. I'd also like the horse's age to be exportable to db.

i wish there was also someway to have the old jock/trainer ratings included in the pps & the difference to be able to be exported. KenM repied at length on the problems inherent in doing this when Glen asked about it. i wonder if these ratings could be added to races after a certain date (like today or Nov 1) & races previous to that date would be ignored for this particular info. Then the trn or jocks rtg would be 'stamped' into that horse's pp from now on & there would be no need for a huge search of jock ratings from the past db. I'm not a programmer so i should just reread KM on this, but i would love to know at a glance when a horse is getting a good/bad trainer or rider switch. I now keep lists of jock ratings for 4 or 5 tracks & i think switches are a big factor.

Finally is there anybody out there who pays attention to weight & thinks these examples are not pure coincidence & actually wagers accordingly. I need to know whether I should go off on a research mission or watch football!

[tbrown]

Personally, I use weight very seldom - only at very long distances and very large shifts.
And even then, I might still ignore it. BUT.....a lot of trainers worship weight and live and die by it. I don't know how to factor that in, but the if guy running the horse's career thinks it is important, then it might be - not the weight itself, but other factors we can't see.
Tough nut to crack.

[Dr.Larry]

I use Weight when comparing horses in Prat2.

Never did a study of Weight, but Len Ragozin ,Len
Freidman , Jon Hardoon and others who earn their
living at the Track say it matters and that has been
good enough for me.

I subtract one Prat point for each 5 pounds, i.e.,
If one of my Contenders will be carrying 10 pounds
less than the other, I mentally credit him with two points.

[MtKen]

Dr. Larry:

It seems to be a rare situation where the weight is spread around unequally but I'll be looking for them now. Especially where younger horses face older & get a big break.
1 pt. for 5 lbs seems like a good rule of thumb where horses have established their ability.