View Full Version : 70% winners
njcurveball
27th June 2007, 12:30.47 AM
Kind of like Public Speaking, posting picks in a forum adds a little bit of tension as you cannot simply say you had the winner when you see the result.
As a test, I am going to post 100 selections here and see if I can get at least 70 winners. Most will be posted the night before and many (if not all) will be favorites. Although I have tested queries with over 90% in the money, betting to win always does better than place and show on these low priced horses. So let's see what happens.
1AP #2 Pocket Bandi 5-2
3BEL #3 Featherbed 8-5
5SUF #6 Looney Boone 4-5
7SUF #1 Pugnacious 1-1
1HOL #2 Fun Logic 3-1
2GLD #6 Little Split 8-5
7PEN #1 Diamond Expl 9-5
9EVD #5 Net Wire 5-1 (yes the ML is 5-1 but should be 2-1)
DanG
27th June 2007, 08:05.14 AM
Kind of like Public Speaking, posting picks in a forum adds a little bit of tension as you cannot simply say you had the winner when you see the result.
As a test, I am going to post 100 selections here and see if I can get at least 70 winners. Most will be posted the night before and many (if not all) will be favorites. Although I have tested queries with over 90% in the money, betting to win always does better than place and show on these low priced horses. So let's see what happens.
Go get em Jim!!!
It doesn’t matter how the picks turn out, I admire the fact that you’re willing to put them out there.
Observation: That is a high number of selections for one day going for that win rate and some high MLO mixed in!!!
If you’re fortunate enough to achieve the 70% I propose we all pitch in and get you 70% of a pizza at Terrible Mike's in the Gold Coast!!! :D
You are the man!!! :)
njcurveball
27th June 2007, 11:37.49 AM
Yes the play count is a lil higher than my previous criteria, but one (or none) plays a day can get boring, so it is a good "live" test to see if this is possible.
If nothing else it will hopefully breed some good discussion and my intention is to find the races where longshots do very poorly.
Still good money can be made, but most likely in exotics.
We will see after 100 plays just how well this does.
Donnie
27th June 2007, 04:21.13 PM
....rough start, huh, Jim? That's one thing I like about posting picks....if I ever have a system I think is solid, all I gotta do is starting posting it's plays!! To me, this is the acid test!
I'm rooting for ya! Keep posting! Let's go 3 fer 3 tonight!
njcurveball
27th June 2007, 11:45.58 PM
Interesting start, and only 3 wins in 8 races while 4 horses stunk up the track. I am committed to go the whole way with the same parameters. So I can only learn from these losers.
1AP #2 Pocket Bandi 5-2 X
3BEL #3 Featherbed 8-5 W $3.4
5SUF #6 Looney Boone 4-5 W $3.2
7SUF #1 Pugnacious 1-1 X
1HOL #2 Fun Logic 3-1 X
2GLD #6 Little Split 8-5 W $3.2
7PEN #1 Diamond Expl 9-5 X
9EVD #5 Net Wire 5-1 3rd <--- went off 7-5, 5-1 ML was way too high, but maybe the track guy knew something?
Let's see how we do on Thursday (same parameters, only 4 qualified)
4CD #7 It's Wonderful 2-1
1HOL #1 Arranged Mar 8-5
8CD #8 Gaff 6-5
2LS #3 Rare an Wind 6-5
Donnie
28th June 2007, 08:19.20 PM
Congrats Jim!! Got your 70% today!! Keep 'er going!
njcurveball
28th June 2007, 11:38.47 PM
Here are todays plays, everytime I do this it validates my thinking that some of these horses use to pay $4 or more. Is it whales, computers, or what that constantly pushes the odds below 4-5 then seems to stop pounding?
LOTS of plays today, some may scratch if the races come off the turf.
4RD #3 Emeritus Rul 8-5
1LAD #7 Risky Weather 8-5
1CD #3 Royal Music 2-1
9TDN #7 Spunky Bob 5-2
5LAD #3 Affect 9-5
13TDN #5 Soft Day 4-1 <--- check out the CLASSIC win/lose pattern on this one!
8CD #2 Congo King 6-5
2PEN #1 Lenape Lou 7-5
3IND #4 Ambassador J 3-1
3CT #6 Piesafe 3-1
Here is the history to date ( 6 winners out of 12 races, 50% so far. $19.60)
6/27/07
1AP #2 Pocket Bandi 5-2 X
3BEL #3 Featherbed 8-5 W $3.4
5SUF #6 Looney Boone 4-5 W $3.2
7SUF #1 Pugnacious 1-1 X
1HOL #2 Fun Logic 3-1 X
2GLD #6 Little Split 8-5 W $3.2
7PEN #1 Diamond Expl 9-5 X
9EVD #5 Net Wire 5-1 3rd
6/28/07
4CD #7 It's Wonderful 2-1 W $3.2
1HOL #1 Arranged Mar 8-5 2nd
8CD #8 Gaff 6-5 W $3.2
2LS #3 Rare an Wind 6-5 W $3.4
njcurveball
29th June 2007, 09:51.32 PM
Here are the plays for Saturday (overall record 10 for 21 $37)
1CRC #6 Mauvais City 2-1
4CRC #7 Dead Red 5-2
3LS #3 Call Transfer 8-5
7MTH #5 Astor Park 3-1
5AP #1 Barbara's Wi 5-2
9DEL #9 Lord Snowden 3-1
6AP #6 It's Handsome 9-5
9CRC #4 Ariel Bright 2-1
8BEL #1 Octave 3-5
7LAD #3 Rural Red 9-5
12CRC #2 Reason to Re 2-1
8HOL #4 Just Knock 3-1
11HOL #9 Awesome Feat 3-1
5EVD #7 St. Zarb 1-1
6EVD #9 Indigo Girl 3-1
7MNR #1 Point of Att 3-1
9CT #3 Natures Annu 2-1
Fridays results (good prices today, but short of 70%! 4 for 9 $17.4)
4RD #3 Emeritus Rul 8-5 X
1LAD #7 Risky Weather 8-5 X
1CD #3 Royal Music 2-1 W $3.8
9TDN #7 Spunky Bob 5-2 W $5.0
5LAD #3 Affect 9-5 2nd
13TDN #5 Soft Day 4-1 W $4.0
8CD #2 Congo King 6-5 X
2PEN #1 Lenape Lou 7-5 scratched
3IND #4 Ambassador J 3-1 X
3CT #6 Piesafe 3-1 W $4.6
njcurveball
30th June 2007, 10:44.17 PM
Saturdays results and some amazing prices for horses that had a lot going for them. 16 horses, 8 wins, 4 2nds, 2 3rds $39.2
YEAR TO DATE 18 for 37 $76.2
1CRC #6 Mauvais City 2-1 3rd
4CRC #7 Dead Red 5-2 W $5.4
3LS #3 Call Transfer 8-5 2nd
7MTH #5 Astor Park 3-1 W $8.8
5AP #1 Barbara's Wi 5-2 2nd
9DEL #9 Lord Snowden 3-1 W $3.0
6AP #6 It's Handsome 9-5 W $3.2
9CRC #4 Ariel Bright 2-1 W $3.2
8BEL #1 Octave 3-5 W $3.2
7LAD #3 Rural Red 9-5 X
12CRC #2 Reason to Re 2-1 W $5.8
8HOL #4 Just Knock 3-1 W $6.6
11HOL #9 Awesome Feat 3-1 X
5EVD #7 St. Zarb 1-1 2nd
6EVD #9 Indigo Girl 3-1 2nd
7MNR #1 Point of Att 3-1 3rd
9CT #3 Natures Annu 2-1 scratched
njcurveball
30th June 2007, 11:50.47 PM
Looks like the high play rate continues, so we will see if the higher prices continue to make this profitable.
Sunday
2CT #9 Legendary Sq 5-2
3DEL #2 Impeach Will 3-1
1LAD #5 Nats General 3-1
5DEL #2 Gold Attract 2-1
7TDN #6 Bajan Pride 3-1
7DEL #2 Electrical C 5-2
4AP #7 Yankeesswept 5-2
7MTH #5 Silk Queen 7-5
12RD #6 Mini Mom 4-5
3HOL #1 Citronnade 6-5
1MNR #3 Fall Classic 1-1
njcurveball
1st July 2007, 07:28.09 PM
Another interesting day, a few bridge jumpers must be reading this. ;-)
Sunday 8 plays, 4 wins, 3 2nds $14.6
Cumulative 22 for 45 $90.8 (slightly under 50%, slightly positive ROI)
2CT #9 Legendary Sq 5-2 scratched
3DEL #2 Impeach Will 3-1 scratched
1LAD #5 Nats General 3-1 X
5DEL #2 Gold Attract 2-1 Won $3.2
7TDN #6 Bajan Pride 3-1 2nd
7DEL #2 Electrical C 5-2 2nd
4AP #7 Yankeesswept 5-2 Won $6.8
7MTH #5 Silk Queen 7-5 2nd (had 20k out of 26k show pool!)
12RD #6 Mini Mom 4-5 Won $2.2 ($5k win, $33,709 out of $34,716 show pool!)
3HOL #1 Citronnade 6-5 Won $2.4 ($89k win, $323k out of 343k show pool!)
1MNR #3 Fall Classic 1-1 scratched
njcurveball
2nd July 2007, 12:13.58 AM
Monday 7/2
2DEL #1 Missmewhenim 8-5
2SUF #8 In Memorium 5-2
3SUF #1 Nellys Town 8-5
4PHA #5 Itsacelebrat 9-5
5SUF #2 Radical Stor 8-5
1HOL #1 My Maloof Ro 8-5
5HOL #3 Get Off The 5-2
7HOL #5 Into Reality 4-1
njcurveball
2nd July 2007, 07:03.00 PM
Interesting day, good luck until Hollywood
Monday 7/2 8 plays, 4 wins, 2 2nds, 1 3rd $18.6
Cumulative 26 for 53 $109.2 (slightly under 50% winners, slightly positive ROI)
2DEL #1 Missmewhenim 8-5 2nd
2SUF #8 In Memorium 5-2 W $6
3SUF #1 Nellys Town 8-5 W $4.6
4PHA #5 Itsacelebrat 9-5 W $3.2
5SUF #2 Radical Stor 8-5 W $4.8
1HOL #1 My Maloof Ro 8-5 2nd
5HOL #3 Get Off The 5-2 3rd
7HOL #5 Into Reality 4-1 X
hdcper
2nd July 2007, 11:24.47 PM
Jim,
Watch your selections every day, your doing a nice job!!!!
Nice to see someone step up to the plate,
Bill
njcurveball
3rd July 2007, 08:46.50 AM
Thanks for the kind words Bill. Didn't get a chance to handicap last night for the few Tuesday cards, but will be making my final push to 100 plays tonight.
Looks like I have increased the play count and the prices at the expense of my 70% winners.
Huguenot
3rd July 2007, 02:55.17 PM
Add in a nice rebate and you've got a 10% ROI with a high win count. That's money in the bank.
;)
DanG
3rd July 2007, 03:51.05 PM
Thanks for the kind words Bill. Didn't get a chance to handicap last night for the few Tuesday cards, but will be making my final push to 100 plays tonight.
Looks like I have increased the play count and the prices at the expense of my 70% winners.
Jim,
Is this the same method on all picks and / or do you eyeball any of them or just let em fly?
GREAT WORK!!!!!!
Donnie
3rd July 2007, 05:30.15 PM
I was wondering the same thing....is this mechanical? Also, is one to assume these are in posttime order?
njcurveball
3rd July 2007, 08:52.03 PM
99% data based using HTR, not possible without it. I could set up a script to output them but I am using a custom report to eyeball to keep track of any patterns that I see.
Donnie is a master of pattern recognition, post time order, good call!
It would be sweet to get a rebate as mentioned by Hug, but then again I am a Jersey resident. :(
Only 3 plays today, 1 won $4.2, 1 2nd, 1 out. Nothing big.
Here are the plays for Wed.
5PHA #7 Explosive Cat 2-1
4MTH #9 Kaufman 3-1
4BEL #8 A Song for Y 5-2
6SUF #6 Senor St Pat 3-5
8PHA #1 Verbal Engag 2-1
10TDN #5 Majestic Pio 9-2
8CD #2 Northern Duk 2-1
3HOL #8 Carsons Cop 8-5
1LS #2 Circustown C 5-2
1WO #5 Spider Rock 2-1
8HOL #7 Flower Fusio 2-1
njcurveball
4th July 2007, 10:49.31 PM
Here are the plays for Thurs.
2HOL #3 Meaux Power 5-2
12RD #3 Cryptohio 1-1
7LS #4 Natural Spee 2-1
9EVD #3 Stephenwilge 2-1
No fireworks on Wed. Worst day so far (10 plays, 3 wins, 3 3rds $11.2)
Cumulative 29 for 63 $120.4 (under 50% winners, slightly negative ROI)
*** curious note, so far Wednesdays have been the worst day for some reason.
5PHA #7 Explosive Cat 2-1 Won $3.8
4MTH #9 Kaufman 3-1 X
4BEL #8 A Song for Y 5-2 X
6SUF #6 Senor St Pat 3-5 3rd
8PHA #1 Verbal Engag 2-1 scratched
10TDN #5 Majestic Pio 9-2 X (off at 8-5. but another high ML that ran out)
8CD #2 Northern Duk 2-1 X
3HOL #8 Carsons Cop 8-5 W $3.6
1LS #2 Circustown C 5-2 3rd
1WO #5 Spider Rock 2-1 3rd
8HOL #7 Flower Fusio 2-1 W $3.8
njcurveball
5th July 2007, 10:09.08 PM
Perfect 4 for 4 day today! And with nice prices as well. Maybe I need to take Thursdays off work? :rolleyes:
2HOL #3 Meaux Power 5-2 W $6.6
12RD #3 Cryptohio 1-1 W $2.8
7LS #4 Natural Spee 2-1 W $5.2
9EVD #3 Stephenwilge 2-1 W $5.2
Cumulative to date is back to positive now
33 for 67 $140.2, almost 50% winners
DanG
5th July 2007, 10:18.11 PM
Perfect 4 for 4 day today! And with nice prices as well. Maybe I need to take Thursdays off work? :rolleyes:
2HOL #3 Meaux Power 5-2 W $6.6
12RD #3 Cryptohio 1-1 W $2.8
7LS #4 Natural Spee 2-1 W $5.2
9EVD #3 Stephenwilge 2-1 W $5.2
Cumulative to date is back to positive now
33 for 67 $140.2, almost 50% winners
Killer Jim…
Just make Wed. your day to work on your curve and play all the rest. :)
Very impressive!!!
njcurveball
5th July 2007, 11:06.09 PM
Thanks for the kind words Dan, let's see what Friday brings
1RD #1 Charlie's Th 1-1
10TDN #5 Southphilly 2-1
5CD #4 Ice Boyz 9-2
1EVD #2 Wild Notions 6-5
10CT #8 Double Brill 7-2
8LS #3 Lady Takum 6-5
3HOL #3 Passified 8-5
10EVD #3 Shes a Dr 2-1
Gary Brous
6th July 2007, 04:11.54 PM
From a brief glance it appears that you are doing better on non turf races.
njcurveball
6th July 2007, 09:37.12 PM
Thanks Gary,
That is certainly something to check.
Here are the plays for Saturday
1PHA #2 SO RISKY 8-5
1CNL #1 LOVE FIRST 7-5
3MTH #6 POMMES FRITE 7-5
4CRC #7 AT FIRST GLA 7-2
3AP #2B FORT PRADO 3-5
3LS #3 MONEYINMYWRA 7-5
5LS #4 DATRICK 7-5
9CRC #1 SINDY WITH A 4-1
6LAD #2 STORM HEIST 9-5
10MTH #9 XELA 3-1
8AP #7 MAGNETIC MIS 4-1
10WO #8 PROPHETICALL 3-1
8LS #2 SWEET IDEA 8-5
8LAD #4 SUMMER JOURN 7-5
11HOL #7 NUMISMATIST 5-2
7EVD #11 LIL AUTHOR 2-1
njcurveball
6th July 2007, 10:33.59 PM
Fridays results
6 plays, 2 wins, 1 2nd, 1 3rd $7.2
Cumulative to date 35 for 73 $147.4, almost 50% winners
1RD #1 Charlie's Th 1-1 scratched
10TDN #5 Southphilly 2-1 3rd
5CD #4 Ice Boyz 9-2 x
1EVD #2 Wild Notions 6-5 scratched
10CT #8 Double Brill 7-2 2nd
8LS #3 Lady Takum 6-5 Won $3.4
3HOL #3 Passified 8-5 Won $3.8
10EVD #3 Shes a Dr 2-1 X
njcurveball
7th July 2007, 09:07.00 PM
Sundays Plays
5MTH #4 Next Adventur 8-5
7DEL #7 Buddhas Pie 2-1
3LS #9 Nine Jewels 2-1
7BEL #3 Distorted Re 6-5
Saturday Results, an amazing day with lots of wins and great prices too!
16 plays, 11 wins, 3 2nds, 1 3rd $46.8
Cumulative to date 46 for 89 $194.2, OVER 50% winners now and almost +10% ROI.
1PHA #2 SO RISKY 8-5 Won $3.2
1CNL #1 LOVE FIRST 7-5 Won $3.8
3MTH #6 POMMES FRITE 7-5 Won $2.6
4CRC #7 AT FIRST GLA 7-2 2nd
3AP #2B FORT PRADO 3-5 Won $3.6
3LS #3 MONEYINMYWRA 7-5 Won $2.6
5LS #4 DATRICK 7-5 2nd
9CRC #1 SINDY WITH A 4-1 2nd
6LAD #2 STORM HEIST 9-5 Won $4.4
10MTH #9 XELA 3-1 Off at 5-1 Won (DH) $6.4
8AP #7 MAGNETIC MIS 4-1 Won $7.6
10WO #8 PROPHETICALL 3-1 Won $5.0
8LS #2 SWEET IDEA 8-5 Won $3.8
8LAD #4 SUMMER JOURN 7-5 X
11HOL #7 NUMISMATIST 5-2 3rd
7EVD #11 LIL AUTHOR 2-1 Won $3.8
DanG
7th July 2007, 09:16.58 PM
Saturday Results, an amazing day with lots of wins and great prices too!
16 plays, 11 wins, 3 2nds, 1 3rd $46.8
Cumulative to date 46 for 89 $194.2, OVER 50% winners now and almost +10% ROI.
SWEET!!!
njcurveball
8th July 2007, 08:51.55 PM
Seven races left to get to 100, looks like it will be profitable and much less than 70% winners, probably coming at just over 50%. I opened up the selection criteria to increase the number of plays and it looked like it really helped the average mutuel. I am impressed because all of these plays were put in the night before without any benefit of late changes, jock switches, surface changes, and all the other good stuff we look at on race day.
This spot play showcases #1 K with #1 HTR and #1 PER. Factors found ONLY in HTR which has to be the best toolkit available today.
Monday
1PHA #4 Goodmans Gi 8-5
4CRC #9 Swingle 3-1
2GLD #4 Brick Party 2-1
1MNR #8 Unsung 7-5
2 wins out of 4 races on Sunday $6.9
5MTH #4 Next Adventur 8-5 Won $4
7DEL #7 Buddhas Pie 2-1 X
3LS #9 Nine Jewels 2-1 X
7BEL #3 Distorted Re 6-5 Won $2.9
Cumulative to date 48 for 93 $201.1, 51.6% winners and $2.16 ROI.
Donnie
8th July 2007, 10:30.06 PM
You said "showcases" and in a previous note you said it was 99% HTR.....Just out of curiousity, care to share that 1%.....is it something HTR doesn't handle? Cause I have a hard time imagining what that might be!
Very nice job Jim! Bring 'er home strong on those last 7!
njcurveball
9th July 2007, 08:44.51 AM
Donnie,
There are four other factors and for this test, I kept it strictly mechanical.
Showcases how powerful HTR is! My personal approach is more dynamic.
I will be glad to discuss strategy with you in Vegas.
Jim
Donnie
9th July 2007, 09:18.08 AM
cool....because I would like to investigate this with a betting strategy I have been working on...pretty dramatic results. Once you have all 100 posted I will run the betting sequence from beginning to end. I'll share it with you in Vegas as well. What I am seeing is your ROI of 2.16 may be blown out of the water.
njcurveball
9th July 2007, 07:48.29 PM
Looks like Saturdays are the day to get good prices. During the week, it seems these horses are bet hard!
Last day and looks like we will end with more than 100 plays in 2 weeks time and less than 70% winners. Is it Tuesday, because this is the most plays I have seen for a Tuesday! LOL!
And to clarify for Donnie, there are five other factors along with K, HTR, and PER.
1PHA #3 Ana's Folly 1-1
1DEL #9 Five Star Jo 5-2
7PHA #2 Seize 2-1
8DEL #9 Royal Pleasure 4-1
4GLD #7 Numeral Uno 2-1
5GLD #7 Nella Tac 5-2
2MNR #2 Debeela 4-5
3PEN #9 Livia 3-1
10MNR #5 Jack Atax 6-5
Monday Results
1PHA #4 Goodmans Gi 8-5 Won $2.8
4CRC #9 Swingle 3-1 3rd
2GLD #4 Brick Party 2-1 2nd
1MNR #8 Unsung 7-5 X
Cumulative to date 49 for 97 $203.9 50.5% winners and $2.10 ROI. One thing that has surprised me is how opening up the criteria has not only caught prices, but horses that looked nearly unbeatable on paper and wound up out of the money. That will open the eyes of any bridge jumper thinking they can hit over 90% horses in the money.
njcurveball
10th July 2007, 04:05.13 PM
Looks like a nail biter on whether I will end with 50% winners and a profitable test. Four races in today and three seconds. Trying to stay positive as well.
Cumulative to date 50 for 101 $207.3
1PHA #3 Ana's Folly 1-1 2nd
1DEL #9 Five Star Jo 5-2 2nd
7PHA #2 Seize 2-1 2nd
8DEL #9 Royal Pleasure 4-1 Won $3.4
Here are tonights plays.
4GLD #7 Numeral Uno 2-1
5GLD #7 Nella Tac 5-2
2MNR #2 Debeela 4-5
3PEN #9 Livia 3-1
10MNR #5 Jack Atax 6-5
DanG
10th July 2007, 04:25.13 PM
Looks like a nail biter on whether I will end with 50% winners and a profitable test. Four races in today and three seconds.
Jim,
I wonder what your place ROI is?
You seem to be filling out 1/2 exacta slots constantly. :)
njcurveball
10th July 2007, 08:25.19 PM
good point at first glance Dan!
Before today there were around 14 2nd place finishes. The problem is that many of those paid less than $3 and some even paid as low as $2.1
Today is obviously run second day. 2 wins and 5 2nds from the the first 8. One horse left but even a win will leave me just missing 50%. Good news is that the average win price was over $4. The average place price probably is around $2.60. So even with 70% 1/2 finishes that still isn't very good.
DanG
10th July 2007, 09:07.32 PM
Remember Jim, we have an adult beverage riding on this all-star game. I think I remember you gave me 3-1 ;) considering the National league hasn’t won since ‘Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov. :D
Oops…Can we commit to an adult beverage over the net without it violating the inter-state beverage laws? :eek:
njcurveball
10th July 2007, 09:27.42 PM
Well it looks to me like Larussa is managing to LOSE home field advantage!
Leyland definitely has something to play for and if Arod and Vlad are still batting in the ninth, that will confirm my thoughts!
Saito warming up to pitch in the sixth? HUH?
DanG
10th July 2007, 09:35.58 PM
Well it looks to me like Larussa is managing to LOSE home field advantage!
Leyland definitely has something to play for and if Arod and Vlad are still batting in the ninth, that will confirm my thoughts!
Saito warming up to pitch in the sixth? HUH?
I have to be careful Jim…
You have an incredible thread going and I don’t want to hi-jack it with baseball.
Yes the lineup was odd…I did feel good for Crawford hitting that homer, the guy has really paid his dues in baseball ‘purgatory!!! :eek:
I think I owe you a beverage of choice baring a late rally. Uh-oh...3-2 as we speak!!! :)
njcurveball
10th July 2007, 09:57.29 PM
Well Cordero and Saito are gone and it isn't even the 8th inning. What does Larussa do if this game goes extra innings?
Crawford is probably as talented as a young Griffey, the difference is that Griffey knows how to play baseball and Crawford is talented at playing baseball.
njcurveball
10th July 2007, 10:12.20 PM
Well after over 100 plays, the win% winds up under 50%. The profit is a thin dime. Making the ROI an even $2 for this test.
48.1% winners and a solid $4.15 avg win mutuel.
Cumulative to date 51 for 106 $212.1
1PHA #3 Ana's Folly 1-1 2nd
1DEL #9 Five Star Jo 5-2 2nd
7PHA #2 Seize 2-1 2nd
8DEL #9 Royal Pleasure 4-1 Won $3.4
Here are tonights plays.
4GLD #7 Numeral Uno 2-1 2nd
5GLD #7 Nella Tac 5-2 X
2MNR #2 Debeela 4-5 2nd
3PEN #9 Livia 3-1 W $4.8
10MNR #5 Jack Atax 6-5 X
njcurveball
11th July 2007, 09:13.25 AM
Upon reviewing this, the most interesting thing I found was how the day of the week influences the profits on a low odds system like this.
Only 2 Saturdays in the test, but both were overwhelmingly positive. It will be interesting if this carries forward.
6/30/2007 16 plays, 8 wins, 4 2nds, 2 3rds $39.2
7/7/2007 16 plays, 11 wins, 3 2nds, 1 3rd $46.8
Total of 32 plays, 19 wins, 7 2nds, 3 3rds $86.0
Well over 30% profit with close to 60% winners.
HTR is good stuff!
HBee
11th July 2007, 12:02.34 PM
Jim,
Thanks for sharing. It's not easy to get out in front of a hundred picks, letting the chips fall where they may. And your chips fell in a good place :D
I hope to buy you an 'adult beverage' in Vegas, while we have some South Jersey rememberances.
Herman
Donnie
11th July 2007, 12:30.50 PM
Jim--
If you could, would you be kind enough to follow it on the next 2 Sats? You don't have to post the picks, just tell us the results. I'd be interested to see how it does. Bigger guns aim for bigger purses...hence possibly the consistency. With larger pools, higher payoffs. Would be interesting to see if you have a weekend warrior's dream there. Would be fun to go back a few Saturday's as well.
njcurveball
11th July 2007, 01:31.30 PM
Thanks for the kind words Herman. I look forward to meeting you in Vegas. I will be there on Monday and I am probably not going very far from the Hotel if the weather is 110 degrees!
Donnie, I am thinking the "on-track" attendance is what drives the prices higher. Looking forward to meeting you in Vegas and discussing things.
Donnie
11th July 2007, 01:56.17 PM
I'll be arriving on Tuesday. Suze is staying home this trip---"too much horse talk for me". And limited vacation time this year! So I'll have 7 days to talk horses. I arrive at some ungodly hour like 10AM on Tues. We'll secure a time/place as we get closer....Tuesday nite everyone tends to gravitate to one of the bars directly behind the racebook.
110? And you're staying in? Sounds like it would be starting to cool off!
DanG
11th July 2007, 02:06.55 PM
Jim…
Might be time to ring Zaf / Frasier and check in on that Pinnacle flat to nail some rebates with your new method. Or better yet…Go domestic through Ian / Premier Turf Club and start racking up the cash for those Phillie season tickets!!!
As Herman said; to stand naked in the handicapping world and declare your goal…and then deliver an outstanding performance…that’s Gr-1 my friend.
Salute!!!
http://www.literock969.com/image/DbGraphic/200603/232927.jpg
njcurveball
11th July 2007, 02:44.34 PM
Jim…
Might be time to ring Zaf / Frasier and check in on that Pinnacle flat to nail some rebates with your new method. Or better yet…Go domestic through Ian / Premier Turf Club and start racking up the cash for those Phillie season tickets!!!
Thanks for the kind words Dan. I am "married" to 4NJBETS as long as I live in the great state of NJ. Now if Canada can somehow conquer the east coast I may have a shot at another venue. ;-)
I would love to support Premier, maybe someday when gas is $1000 a gallon and the IRS still has the $600 filing on winnings we will be there!
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