Trainer Angle

[George]

Was watching TVG yesterday and listening to the analysts as usual praise every horse in the race for some unique asset. They can then point out after the race how they "pinpointed" the winner.

Then a reasonable analysis of 7KEE race was done by Caton Bredar. She actually felt there was only one possible winner of the race!! Her reason? The trainer of #4 Alpha Strike "always" wins after a long layoff when he uses Jon Court as jockey. In this race Jon Court had elected to ride #5 Freon Flyer instead of Alpha Strike.

Caton's logic was that Court's decision to ride #5 instead of "sure" winner #4 was a strong indication that Freon Flyer was ready to win. Based on her opinion and the fact #5 was very strong in most HTR factors I wagered fairly heavily on him. Nice surprise was it was a very easy winner at a juicy $11.

Was wondering if anybody on this board tracks and uses similar trainer/jockey angles?

[Ken Massa]

As you know George, we often get limited data on a specific trainer angle if looked at for 1 or 2 years of results. Adding the jockey to the equation slices the sample further. If a t/j duo is 3 for 5 with 180 layoff - is that good or just a lucky snapshot? Were the winners heavy chalk and likely to score despite the angle, or were they longshots that fooled the crowd?

Larger samples (3 years or more) may reveal more of a trend, but was the all the good stuff too long ago to give us confidence in today's bet?

The clear solution is to keep a personal database and print out the complete history of a t/j angle race by race and notice each detail such as odds and class type and distance/surface. It can be done with our exports as the right data is in there - but most of us do not have time to do the homework required. I have built custom apps for several users over the years that search for these types of t/j scenarios - they find some stuff that is highly positive - but it rarely carries forward. Seems that t/j data hot streaks have an amazing way of ending just at the moment when they become positively identified by the handicapper!

Ron at HDW told me about a client that asked him to search the entire North American database for a trainer that showed a positive ROI, betting every starter, for each of the last 2 years Exactly one trainer was found. Betting this trainer for the first few months of 2001 resulted in an 0 for 20 streak.

Wagering on the basis of trainer/jockey stats is an exercise in pure faith - but sometimes faith in our fellow humans is rewarded with $11 winners!

[George]

Thanks for the feedback Ken. Think I just got lucky on that race. As always a whole lot of winning is to have enough confidence in some angle to wager agressively.

Sounds like an area that might be worth investigating. Am about to retire and may spend some of that free time looking into t/j relationships. May wait until the new export is ready which should make capture of at least the trainer and jockey info easier than it is presently.

[Ron]

George;

I worked with trainer profiles 6-7 years ago.

I would cut and paste the PP's of selected trainers winning horses in a file and then analyze his MO after I collected enough data. I used a manual spread sheet back then.

My biggest two dollar mutual to date (168.00) was cashed by using this method.

I found it to be a nice supplement to my figure handicapping at the time, and it worked best for me when I concentrated with just a couple tracks and a limited number of trainers, preferably on the same circuit.

Now that I play mutliple tracks every week, I no longer have the time to hone in on specific trainer patterns.

I have some audio and printed material on the "how to's" in case your interested in researching some ways to work it into your personal method of play.

Just let me know.

Ron

[Cliff]

George,

There's a guy over on the PaceAdvantage board that has been posting some interesting comments with ROI's and trainer/jockey numbers included. I think he has "home grown" his but he might be willing to share some of his insight. "Que" I think is his nick.

I'd be interested in looking at this angle somewhere in the future as well.

How is your F/M early speed query holding up?

Cliff

[George]

Ron.......
Interesting comments. Back when I did this for a living followed trainer moves very closely. Like you, played only one track at a time, and kept lots of notes. Playing multiple tracks one would have to have a completely automated tracking system. Am a little burned out after spending lots of time automating jockey/runstyle analysis. While I learned a lot on the RS stuff don't think it helped my bottom line.

Thanks for the offer on the materials and may take you up on it later.

Cliff........
I will go take a look at Que's notes on the PA board. Thanks for the info.

Am still messing with the filly/mare early speed play. Added a requirement that K factor be ranked less than 6 and win% has held very steady at 39%. Very chalky with roi a little over $1.10. Could easily go negative with one bad run of luck. Gets a $14-$18 winner every now and then but not often enough to make it a great play.

How are you doing in the BRIS contest? Hope you win it :)

[tomcat]

I agree with your comments. I try to focus on Keeneland. I started this year looking at trainers at Keeneland. It seems there 2 categories of trainers. Some are just not very good and should be avoided...I scratch these. Generally, bad trainers will get bad horses or is it visa versa? Some are not too good at Keeneland. I only play these when they have an advantage. For example Lake who I think is a very good trainer, dosen't do so well at Kee. A trainer by the name of Salmen is 0/41 at kee over the last 3 years.

I think overall concentrating on certain tracks with certain plays will improve your handicapping.