WORKOUTS

[Gambler]

I was thinking abou using workouts in my handicapping. Exporting them over to access and my program. HX3 will give me the number of days ago they were run and HX4 will give a discription. Need help on some questions.

1. In HX4 what do the letters stand for? Is there some place that will tell me?

2. Do you think there is enough info here to a valuable tool in handicapping? In other words do you use them?

Thanks
ed

[Rick]

Take a look at the Aug 2000 newsletter. That is the only place I can find km discussed the workout grade.

Seems now the workout rating is more in fashion.

[Gambler]

I like the workout rating but without knowing when the last workout was I thought it would be weak if the workout occured a long time ago. Maybe Im wrong.

Thanks Rick

[Rick]

Check out the Aug/Sep 04 newsletter. Page 17

Looks like the Workout Rating came out at the seminar in 03 so also look at the Aug 03 newsletter.

A good way to lookup something about HTR2 is to download all the newsletters to a directory of their own.

You can then use the Acrobat reader to do a search. Click on Edit, Search and enter the word or phrase you are looking for. Click on the All PDF Documents in and browse to the directory you have the newsletters downloaded to.

Thanks to Donnie for that tip.

[DanG]

I like the workout rating but without knowing when the last workout was I thought it would be weak if the workout occured a long time ago. Maybe Im wrong.
Thanks Rick
Ed…

Quick and dirty example…

WO >=85 and Ranked 1st. (40,000+ sample size true all-burger.)

Left to right…

0 = WO was “stale”, did not occur since last race
1 = WO was “live”, did occur since lat race.

• 0…W% 17%...WP% 31%...$0.84 [high $190.00]
• 1…W% 19%...WP% 34%...$0.96 [high $183.00]

Now…that is amazing as a stand alone factor that is really lost on the public. :) The real beauty of the workout rating is it works so well with other factors and enhances ROI which is very hard to achieve when pairing variables in racing.

As far as pulling the grades out etc…I’ve found it is very trainer / circuit specific.

Quick examples…

McLaughlin Kiaran P.

• Grade “A” WO…24%...$1.42…035 / 146 [high $74.00]
• Grade >”A” WO…15%...$0.97…108 / 708 [high $122.00]

Now…I realize I didn’t pick out the most dramatic example. I’m a little rushed here and I just chose the first guy I found. Obviously Kiaran is dangerous in most situations.

BTW:

Here are two high profile $0.99 trainers with good sample sizes…

• Pletcher and Baffert both when they score >=85

Baffert takes an ROI hit when he has a “live A”, as California is very in tune to last out fast works. But, without HTR’s workout rating they still don’t pick up on the patterns it finds.

• Pletcher is over a dollar in two “live” grades… “A” and oddly enough “F”.:eek:

Sorry about the rush job Ed…Hope this helps your cause.

[Gambler]

Thanks Rick Ill have to download all those monthlys.

Thanks DanG. What you said sure helped me. I dont post much, but i read verything and I sure enjoy your thoughts.
Thanks
ed

[AwolAtHTR]

hi Ed,

found this

--PAGE 3
II

The second section of the TLC focuses on Trainer and Jockey and any changes going on. Trainer and Jockey ratings are shown. Those with (*) have an exceptional 365-day record.
# Change in trainer or rider
+ Jockey switch looks very positive
c# Trainer change due to claim last time
?# Switch to a new trainer, but the reason is unclear – dig deeper
TrL30 – Trainer record last 30 days
Example: 12/53 Trainer has won 12 of his last 53 starts in during the preceding 30-days.
Workout Data
Examples: B4h = Worked 4-furlongs handily and received a “B” clocker grade.
C5g = Worked 5-furlongs from the gate and received a “C” grade for the effort.


so, apparently the letters are the opinion of a clocker labeled ABCD

oops, lost the link, I will find link and edit this (bummer, had it in favorites!!)

try this http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-JUL2002.pdf


duane

[Exterminator]

K.I.S.S.: if they work okay .Time is not a factor. MANY workouts are not even recorded.

[AwolAtHTR]

K.I.S.S.: if they work okay .Time is not a factor. MANY workouts are not even recorded.

yes, agreed
and, this is what I like about HTR WorkScore which is often a major factor for my picking.

With WorkScore as the '..magic number..' to summarize Workouts AND recent activtity,
a person does not have to dig into all the work out history.

--------
ed,

Back in my DRF handicapping days, I used the Gate work which is noted by a suffix of a lower case G (ie, Gate). IF you need a tie breaker for FTS (some 2TS), then the horse with one or more Gate works is solid contender for the Win-Place horse.

something for you to consider, IF you are going to decode the WorkOuts and create flags for spot plays.

[Huguenot]

Dan et al,

Do you find it more effective to track trainers by their Workout Rating (85, etc.) OR their workout GRADE? or does it depend on the trainer (as I suspect?)

That's really a huge advantage of using Access instead of just the Robot although you can track a trainer's ability with the workout rating in the Robot, but not the score.

One day I really have to take the day to learn Access....

[DanG]

Dan et al,
Do you find it more effective to track trainers by their Workout Rating (85, etc.) OR their workout GRADE? or does it depend on the trainer (as I suspect?)

Hug,

I wish I had a pat answer for you, but I don’t.

I combine several things into a composite trainer score and one of the categories is Workout. (My own version I guess of HTR’s “TPG” rating that I also use enthusiastically.)

I use…

• Grade
• Live (did they work since their last race.)
• WO Score

I group WO score in three main categories…

• 1 = >=85
• 2 = >65 and <85
• 3 = <= 65

(I do make allowances for age)

I’m certainly not going to drill down and say Trainer-X is 3 / 24 when he workouts in “78”, and 7 / 9 when he drills in “81”. I find these ranges are effective for gaining separation.

Quick look at Gary Contessa. Not much separation in the range of scores, but decent look into him by grade. (All burger) Again, first guy I grabbed, there are more dramatic examples obviously.

GRADE WINS STS WIN% ROI HIGH
A 42 200 21% $1.09 $37.00
B 68 463 15% $0.87 $50.00
C 92 570 16% $0.79 $47.00
D 24 190 13% $0.59 $59.00
F 12 85 14% $0.63 $23.00
NA 40 197 20% $0.84 $53.00

WKSC WINS STS WIN% ROI HIGH
>=85 29 160 18% $0.84 $23.00
>65 <85 244 1495 16% $0.86 $59.00
<=65 5 50 10% $0.44 $23.00

[tomcat]

Gambler, if you are going to use workouts in your handicapping seriously, I suggest going to the early morning works yourself. A lot can be learned. For example, did the horse work with another horse, or did he work alone? How did the horse finish? Strong or exhausted? Did he washout? Did they slow him up the last furlong? What time did you get? (you do have a stop watch don't you?) Remember, the timers will give a consensus time. Who rode the horse? Was a big rider? ........

Good luck!

There are people who do go to the workouts with their stop watches.

[Exterminator]

In trying to understand an overall concept, it is common to break it
down into its component parts. Often, as in many of the racing books I
have reviewed, this result is giving some of those components too much
influence on the whole (and sells more books). Workouts are a
particular area where I believe this has occurred.

If you go to the large training facilities at Newmarket or Chantilly,
they have huge "runs" covered with wood chips where upwards of twenty
horses go out together from the same stable to have LSD (Long Slow
Distance) runs together. These are never timed. It makes good sense as
it promotes cardiovascular fitness in the same (herd) situation a
horse would experience in its natural surroundings. In Hong Kong,
horses have to register for workouts and are then assigned a specific
saddle cloth number that the horse must carry after the horse
identifier makes sure that the animal is the one listed on the work
tab. This insures that when the clocker times a horse with the listed
saddle cloth, it is in fact that same horse.

In contrast, at most North American tracks there is an outdated system
fraught with error potential. When horses enter the track from the
"gap" in the fence from the barns, the exercise rider calls out to the
horse identifier ( a fellow working for the track who receives the
information and then radios this up to the roof where the clocker(s)
are located): "Alydar working five furlongs for John Veitch," and that
is that. No one checks to see if the animal is in fact Alydar, or this
animal is from said barn. Now usually the identifier knows all the
riders, but there is no hard and fast identification rule. Also there
is great potential to mix them up if the same stable sends out three
horses with the same saddle cloth.

Now the horse has been identified (ostensibly), the clocker knows the
name and theoretical work out distance (they are not bound to just go
that distance). As the animals warm up (we know that many take longer
than others to do this), the clocker must keep track of all of these
horses with no identifying marks on them other than saddle cloths
specific to the trainer or stable. Some may take 5 minutes to get
ready, others 15 to 20 as more animals are coming out onto the track,
and so one clocker is assigned to follow his group. Another potential
area of mistake is exposed.

When the horse is ready to work (and they all are timed from the
standard poles referenced in the infield), they will bring the animal
up to speed. If the work is at four furlongs, the horse gets moving at
about the 5/8ths pole but not always. Some riders are actually working
6 furlongs but are being timed for only four and start the animal at
top speed BEFORE the start of the official timing. Now the horses are
going full out before the timing and often the exercise riders are
well over 140 pounds. Not much of a chance to correlate to actual
racing situations again.

Often trainers want to try a new piece of equipment on a horse (to see
how they would react before putting that on in a race), or work a
young horse in company. Usually, in the latter situation, a old pro
gelding is send out at a steady 13 second/furlong clip so that the
rider of the younger animal gets the experience of having dirt kicked
in it's face and passing the slower animal. Usually, but not always, the older
gelding's workout time becomes so slow relative to the other younger
one, that is often dropped from the work out results altogether. In
the older DRF editions from the 60's-70's, the clockers used to note
when they worked together to inform the public of these maneuvers
("Whittingham worked Ack Ack in company with Pinjara") and would note
when a "name" jockey had come out to work a horse ("Santos was in the
irons on Funnycide"), note where the animal may have lugged in or out,
and gave a very accurate description of moves that caught the clockers
eye as being exceptional. This is no longer done in any edition of the
DRF which I have seen.

Qualifiers: Most racing jurisdictions want to protect the public from
horse being sent out who are either unfit or hurting and require any
horse which has not raced or worked out in the last thirty days to
have a qualifying work of 5 furlongs within a set time (usually in the
range of 1:05). This tells the stewards that the horse is sound enough
to go that distance and fit enough to move within a time indicative of
a horse that could competitively race. Many trainers who have access
to private training facilities where public clockers have not reported
previous works, do not have to inform the racing organization the
degree of fitness these animals have attained and often run them to
just get the minimum time when the horse is capable of much more.
Also, many horses that have worked, and worked too slowly, are dropped
from reported as having worked at all.

In the morning the track has been prepared the night before and most
trainers want their worked as early as possible (5 AM is standard for
the first sessions). After about two hours the track gets torn up and
there is a break to re-surface. Depending upon what time the animal
works, there can be a significant difference in the surface. Horses
are NOT required to work near the rail and many can work in the 3 or 4
path giving an erroneous time.

Finally, there are NO drug tests after workouts. One can never know
how much pharmaceutical help an animal have received in augmenting
it's time.

Being out there on a recurring basis tells much more than the time

[DanG]

Exterminator…

Excellent post…

Without going through point by point, I’m curious…Do you or / have you used HTR?

I ask that because your post concerning Pedigree and now Workout does not completely reflect HTR’s approach to these two factors…IMO.

HTR’s workout rating overcomes many of the pitfalls you laid out in your detailed writing. It’s obvious you have a serious racing background and I too approached HTR’s workout rating with major skepticism. It’s since become one of its most powerful allies to me.

Not every rating is taken at 100% gospel as a couple rare circuits are down right miss-leading. However, they are fortunately in the minority. So Cal (for example) armed with HTR’s workout / pedigree ratings give multi-race players a fighting chance with all the lightly raced horses.

For anyone new to HTR…

The workout rating is not even close to 100% time based. It seeks out patterns of works AND races to rate the fitness level of the animal. It’s obviously proprietary and I don’t know the algorithms used, but its tremendous when paired with other factors. It actually increases ROI and win% simultaneously which as we all know is the Rosetta stone in handicapping.

Thanks for the good information!

[Exterminator]

Without going through point by point, I’m curious…Do you or / have you used HTR?


No. I only evaluate a horse's performance in a race. Nothing else

In a different format, I use the same things you guys do but limit it to the horse and nothing extraneous.

[DanG]

No. I only evaluate a horse's performance in a race. Nothing else

In a different format, I use the same things you guys do but limit it to the horse and nothing extraneous.

Understood…

Plenty of ways to skin this cat.

One mans extraneous information can be another man’s bread and butter however. ;)

All the best!