Ideas for 3rd and 4th in superfectas

[DallasNY]

Greetings,


I know that hitting superfectas can be a very tough game, I am really excited about them. I've played 12 superfecta's I've hit 4, three of them have been small; doing slightly better then making my money back. Out of the 8 losers, 7 of them loss because I missed just one horse and what hurt is they paid quite well. If I could find a few factors which could help me ferret out these horses, that would be great. I will probably take some time this week to analyze the horses that beat me and reread some of the newsletters on longshots.

My basic strategy has been to use K=1,2; HTR=1; Fr1=1 or Fr3=1(based on whether its a sprint or route); throw in a longshot or two. I will compare the rest of the field and whittle my play down to six contenders.

If anyone has any specific suggestions, or think there is a particular newsletter that may be of interest let me know.

Thanks for the heads up Awol!

Carl

[AwolAtHTR]

If anyone has any specific suggestions, or think there is a particular newsletter that may be of interest let me know.



well Carl, apparently the forum is having problems.
ie, I had done an Edit of my other post and it is gone!!
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Find races with two or more with RS=R and K over 5

example is: TAM2007031712 (Tampa Derby) one of RS=R made the Trifecta

of course, with two favorites UNDER $5, the race was not bettable
so, a sample of what happens even in the Stakes races but we find other samples

consider a little Reverse Engineering (NOT RedBoarding!) to see how to change those losers into collections.

also, consider using the Prgm screen to review the races you lost.

I have added a research task to count the number of RS=R in a race.

I have noticed that races with 3 or 4 RS=R can be reduced to two by using only ones with one or more '..positive..' HTR factors. Of course, small sample and a SIMPLE rule would be to just use ALL of them.

more later,

[DallasNY]

Awol,


Thanks, this is the type of info I'm looking for. When you state RS=R with K over 5, I'm assuming you mean K6 thru K9 or higher. Are horses with K1 thru K5 more likely to be in the running for 1st and 2nd.



Thanks
Carl

[njcurveball]

Carl,

This is just my 2 cents as a Weekend Warrior and someone who plays most of his $1 Superfectas for $24 or less.

If I like a horse to win and he is 5-1 or more, he MUST have win money on him. My brain just cannot take picking a prime horse like this and not getting paid. I also recommend this to anyone at the Track who comes crying that the horse THEY REALLY LIKED won and paid $18, but they only had it in TRIs and SUPERs.

Now if you REALLY LIKE 2 horses and they both are over 5-1, you have a nice exacta and up/down trifecta play.

You see where I am headed now? Most of my horses in the winner slot of Supers are less than 5-1. And many of the horses I use for 2nd are also less than 5-1. I do not mind missing a $30 exacta, for a chance to take $1,000 or more out of the race.

In my opinion there is way too much money in the pools bet on low odds horses to finish 3rd or 4th. I have seen people box 3 favorites in the trifecta and then wonder why they only got $40 back. Believe it or not, most people at the track do not have a good sense of value when it comes to TRIs and SUPERs.

Now if you don't have a strong opinion on the race, then the Super is definitely NOT the place to be! You need to be strong on a winner or an exacta and then you also need to make some horses non-contenders.

Perfect scenario. You like 2 horses, 2nd and 3rd choices. You hate the favorite! You hate the 4th and 5th choices as well. In a 9 horse field, my bet would be 2,3/2,3/6,7,8,9. $24.

Now if you want to expand that to $48, then you can take the split

2,3/6,7,8,9/2,3/6,7,8,9

If you want to do a dime to account for the longest possible way (your horses running 4th)and this is something I could have done yesterday having all of the horses in an $11,000 super.

6,7,8,9/6,7,8,9/6,7,8,9/2,3

The bottom line is that your top choices need to come from sound handicapping. The other horses come from having maybe one or two things going for them. A strong 3rd fraction. A decent early pace rating. Strong PED or WORK rating. It varies. I haven't found any "cookie cookers" to the bank. Each race is different. Especially different classes.

A maiden claimer may get 4th just due to the fact he had an inside post and didn't quit as badly as the others in a route race. Cheap claimers as well. Outside posts are hard on classy horses, but death to cheap ones.

Take a look at the two favorites (K1 and K2) in last night's 10th at Sam Houston. A mile on the turf. #9 the betting favorite was 3 and 4 wide the entire race and quit. #10 smartly tucked early, but then was 6 wide and barely managed 4th. The inside horses ran 1-2-3. With #1 only being out of the money due a ride that saw more trouble than a Britney Spears marriage.

But the bottom line is that with cheap horses, you need to do a little projection on where they will be and what kind of trip is ahead of them.

Jim

[DanG]

Carl,

Duane and Jim make excellent points as usual…

They were very clear in their posts, so I thought it was time for someone to cloud the issue a bit…:D

Tri / Super’s possess both the good and bad in gambling.

Bad:
• Among the highest takeouts offered,
• Betting blind without accurately knowing payoffs.
• Inherit losing streaks given the mathematical realities.
• Potentially traumatic psychological fallout from near misses.
• IMO: Criminal taxation…Taxation…TAXATION!!!! :mad:

Good:
• Often huge amounts of square money in pools through boxing and wild stabs.
• The above “best” does compensate some for the increase in takeout.
• Significant, sometimes 5 figure windfalls that can directly impact your standard of living.
• When facing a vulnerable favorite they offer some of the best value in racing.

Carl, I agree with Jim there really is no A + B = potential winners, while C + D = runners for the third slot etc…Each race presents different scenarios and potential for profit.

Rough guidelines that I’ve found work long term for many good “right-brain” exotic betters.

• Exploit your key horse. If you’re using 4 or 5 deep in the first slot, you really don’t have an opinion on the race. Use that spreading power further back in the sequence as each slot back produces more random results on average.
• If you believe the favorite (<= 2/1) will run 1, 2 or 3…RARELY box and in all likelihood, pass this pool.
• Separate tri and super money from your bankroll and write down your bets.
• Be honest with yourself…Are you looking to “hit” tri’s & super’s, or are you looking to crush when you do cash. If you are looking to crush, be prepared for longer losing streaks as you will need to leave many favorites out of all 3 slots.
• Don’t use “win or bust” horses in the garbage holes. Common mistake and really adds value to the pool. If “Speed Racer” is the boom or bust type who either gets the 2 length lead they need or gets a beer at the eighth pole, they often must be on top, or not at all. (Possible exceptions being a significant bias, or perhaps a “Rule-50” event)

I am not a good tri – super player. As Clint Eastwood said in Magnum force…”A man’s got to know his limitations”.;) I do know a tremendous one though and I would like a nickel for every time I’ve heard him say…”Without a key horse or two at the max, don’t play the trifecta or super.”

Now…This is not to say your “Key” has to necessarily be in the first slot. There is a strong case to be made that a good strategy is to find solid condition plays, strong FR3’s, historically horses who’s lifetime records resemble this…[43 – 3 – 4 – 13] These horses routinely pick off “win contenders” who did not get their favorable scenario today. In some races virtually every horses has at least some shot to run fourth, while the top end can be only 2 deep.

Long story short…these .10 cent supers offer a tremendous opportunity to get creative with these bets. Try multiple tickets instead of the 4 X 4 X 4 X 4 approach. Get the most bang you can for these 256 combinations by narrowing the win slot. When you feel the favorite is vulnerable its time to get involved and these are the ones that will make your blood pressure rise and hopefully your bankroll with it. :)

[DallasNY]

Greetings,


I thank everyone for all of the suggestions.

I'm really not trying to discover a magic wand for superfectas. I do limit my super bets to races that I like two horses in particular with the favorite being suspect. As the title of the post implies I'm not having problems with horses running 1st or 2nd. I was searching for factors that might point to dead horses that jump up for one race and run good enough to run 3rd or 4th.

Now I do throw 5 horses on top, not because I'm unsure - but to take advantage of bad racing luck and other factors. So in my structure.


a,b,c,d,e
a,b,c
a,b,c,d,e
a,b,c,d,e

a and b or the horses I am convinced will run well (and they usually do!!)
c is generally a longshot horse in the 6/1 -12/1 range.
d,e are generally 12/1 or higher and I'm hoping they can finish either 3rd or 4th, but sometimes they jump up and win. This was the case last weekend when I got the good payoff.

So really just trying to focus in on picking better c,d,e horses.

And as NJcurve points out, I will work on having additional money on my a and or b horses.


Thanks
Carl