Oct Newsletter / HTR2001 upgrade

[Ken Massa]

HTR Monthly Report for October and the HTR2001 program update will be available on Friday October 5th. Very interesting material in both.

[hdcper]

Hi Ken or Rick,

Hope you will be posting last month's newsletter too. Like always, I really enjoy reading them.

Thanks ahead a time,

Hdcper

[Rick]

The October 2001 Newsletter is ready for download at the HTR Data site: http://216.49.140.232/default.asp

The September 2001 Newsletter is posted at http://homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRMonthlyReport-SEP2001.pdf

The latest upgrade of HTR2001.exe can be downloaded at: http://homebased2.com/km/dnl/HTR2001.exe

[Donnie]

tried to download Oct newsletter...shows 0 bytes in the file...am I the only one with this problem...will try home computer when I get there!

[MikeDee]

Donnie,

I didn't have any problems with it.

[hurrikane]

I get an error about a color attribute it doesn't understand. Seems it finally came up but there were a lot of blank pages..hopefully it was all there

[MtKen]

Ken M:

Another great update & newsletter. Really appreciate the [] around a suspect pace line in the Velocity Plus section.

I'm a huge fan of the post position % in HTR screen 8. Will this be moving to HTR 2001 sometime? Is there any way to show the raw #'s for these %'s? E.G. Our B&B race today (Pha 9) shows the 12 with a 0%---if 12 go off I'd like to know if this is 0/0 or 0/20.

Another feature of the old HTR I LOVE is the pp's with the leader's EP rating included. That way you can see how the horse ran vs. today's probable EP #. When you do Impact PP's will you include the leader's Espeed in the PP line? I think that'd be invaluable.

My handicapping & bankroll have improved much since HTR 2001 came out----hope (know) it's not a coincidence. Keep up the great work.

Thanks for reminding us of those "mop-up" closers in the exotics...something to concentrate on in this month's B&B.

MtKen

[MikeDee]

Ken M,

Really like the stuff on factor X. Ever given any thought to a weighted factor x for example for sprints weight it more to fr1 and for routes weight it more to fr3? Think it would matter?

[Rick]

Hurrikane,
Which Acrobat Reader version are you using?

The new PDF files are only compatible with version 4 and 5.

If that not the problem send me an email and I will send you a version in a different format.

Rick
ricks@homebased2.com

[Ken Massa]

MT Ken - thank you for the nice comments.
I plan to eventually transfer every single piece of data from HTR-DOS over to HTR2001. If I miss anything - get on my back about it. The screen (5) pp's from HTR were my first baby and I have no intention of abandoning them - they will appear in the Windows version in an expanded format - but the basic numbers will stay the same. The same goes for all screens in PRAT - as many of those contain the Pace of the Race figure that you like. The Post-position stats will be included and the Track Profile will be expanded to display more data on post position. I may fish the final post-position out of the charts for the export to insure it is the actual post run at race time in your research files (thanks to a suggestion from George on that).

MikeDee - re: tilting the Fr1 + Fr3 balance by weighting either factor more heavily.

The ROI never gets better with Fr1 when combined with anything else. I have spent some very long nights testing creative new ratings, including some as you described and cannot find a breakthrough. Win% does improve when other factor weights and combinations are applied, but they end up eliminating those boxcar Fr1 winners that show 1-9-9-9-9-9 on the velocity screen!

Fr3 can be pumped when combined with other items - but the results don't improve over S/P or L/P significantly. A better opportunity that I would suggest for Access research would be to try combinations and weightings of the Esp + Res. Because the Res segment is static (always 1/8 mile) it may improve on F/X or Fr3 velocity ROI.

Appreciate the remarks about the newsletter Mike, and I figured you might be the one person to take up the challenge of the mysterious F/X! Please let us know what you find if you experiment with those two segments - as you did with the excellent MikeD rating which weights POW and Pscan in unequal amounts. BTW: the MikeD rating will become a permanent part of HTR2001 when I re-create the TLC screen later.

[MtKen]

Congrats MikeD on becoming "immortalized" in HTR 2001!

[MikeDee]

Hooray!! My 5 mins. of fame. I have a number named after me. Time to write a book:D

[Gramps]

Frank pointed out to me that F1 will improve ROI (while decreasing in win %) if the top consensus figure horses are thrown out. In other words, something like F1=1 and K>1, K>2 or K>3. It essentially throws out a lot of overbet horses that are what he calls "PO's" (Public Obvious). The win percentage goes down, of course, but the ROI goes up because the horses that are left are the less-bet F1's that escape the public's fancy. I tried this in my 11,000 race database, and it seems to correlate to what he said. The results in a larger database may differ, and I'd be interested to know what somebody with a database of 100,000 races sees.

I'm still on the road, but will be back sometime next week. I've finished in Chicago and New York and am now in Miami. Planes are very empty, as can be expected, but the airline people said that it's getting a little better. Eventually, when people see that things are secure, the planes will fill again. I have a couple of days work in Miami, a couple more in Alabama, then home for me.

[Bruce]

Obviously that attitude is likely to change after today's events. Still, I think the skies are safer than Amtrak which has absolutely no security.