jhilden
26th February 2007, 10:19.03 PM
I like to report success at the track; especially with big scores, but I like to report the days that well, made me leave the track with my head shaking; even if I did not lose any money at the end of the day.
The reason why I am writing this post? I came away from the day with some knowledge that I would like to share. First, I would like to mention a few events that made the day quite memorable and some of the lessons learned on this past Sunday.
The first event happened in the first race- a 6F event. As the horses broke from the gate and headed to the first call, the #1, Bucks our boy, appeared to have been bumped a little; which resulted in him to go nuts, throw off the jockey, and make a left turn in the gap, hence heading down the first turn the opposite way. As the horses were rounding the far turn into the stretch, the outrider finally had control (After two failed attempts to get him) of the errant horse. The rider did a great job averting tragedy, which I am very thankful for as I had my six year old daughter with me and we were standing by the rail. Lesson learned – if taking small children to the track and an accident/breakdown happens, especially if you are close, be prepared to face the wife and find a good child psychologist.
The next event happened in the fourth race – a maiden claimer at 7 furlongs. There were only two horses that appeared to be good contenders, the #1 and #2; both third time starters who raced against each other in their last race – coming in 2nd and 3rd. The #1 appeared to be better as it was the horse that came in 2nd and had a good jockey. The #2, who came in third appeared almost equal on paper, but was 2nd time lasix – so I considered them close to equal in win probability. After scratches, there were six horses that would be going to the gate. Since two horses stood out on paper, I planned to skip the race as I was sure both would be bet down and be underlays.
With seven minutes to post time, I think many also had the same idea of skipping the race as the W-P-S pools did not have much money in them – the sum of all three pools barely passed $1000. When the tote refreshed, something caught the eye of many at the track; the #1 had an additional $3000 placed on it – resulting in the odds to be 1/9. The horse looked good on paper, but a maiden claiming race at 7 furlongs – someone (Many, like me, assumed this money came from one wager) was mighty confident! Talk spread throughout the racetrack of inside money – and/or who would risk so much money on a race like this – the theories grew as post time approached. Exhibiting the behavior of a typical horseplayer, I had my own theories to share. One, my first guess was that someone made a mistake. Two, someone was trying to ruse the crowd by placing a large wager on a horse then withdraws the bet right before the bell goes off. Three, someone really really liked this horse enough to place a huge win wager – hey, people like to throw money around and play the part of Mr. Big Shot for 15 minutes. Coincidently, the place and show pools did not have much money in them nor did their percentages mirror the win pool.
When the gates opened, the money stayed in the pools, so no ploy. As the horse crossed the finish line, the odds did level off a bit as the #1 finished at 4/5 and the #2 at 6/5 –which by the way -won. Lesson learned – large amounts hitting the tote board and huge odds swings can make for good conversation at the track; but who cares? Would you change your betting strategy based on assumptions of whom and why a large sum was bet?
The third event really got me mad; it was the first time ever that I made a Pick 3 wager (Races 5-6-7) for under $10, won, and LOST MONEY! I made a simple 2x2x2 wager using what would become the favorites with a logical (Appeared at the time) longshot. After loosing , I saw two signs that should have told me that this wager was not worth the $8 risk. One, field sizes, these fields were short and with the scratches, anyone who made a wager with these scratched horses got the favs on their ticket. Two, the Vi for all three races in the sequence was >40! Doh! On Sunday, I kept the Vi in mind when structuring the wager, but I totally left the field sizes and the impact on the pools out of the equation. Yes, I did keep in mind that if all three of my top choices win, the payout would be low – but not $7.40 for a $1 dollar ticket!!!! Lesson learned – or was it?
I wish I could erase all emotion at the track. Without emotion, I would be a millionaire (or bankrupt :confused: ). Because I was mad at the last pick 3 sequence, I did not play the next one. For races 8-9-10, I structured a 1x5x1 wager for $5 in which I would bet the $2 amount for $10. I would use my top picks – which I assumed would be the favs or 2nd favs for the first and third legs. For the middle race, I included all five horses; an allowance race for non-winners of three in which I did not like the top rated horse and the field appeared to be competitive for early speed. My wish in this race would be for some chaos even though the Vi was 45. Well, the highest priced horse won the middle race at 11-1 and my two picks won the first and third legs – paying $467 for the pick 3. Whoulda coulda shoulda; but I had this wager down and at the machine, I let my emotion take control, cleared the screen, and walked away.
So, what was the final lesson learned? Play your game; plain and simple. If you do your homework and spend the time the night before handicapping, play what has been successful for you. I was mad at my 60 cent loss in a pick 3 wager, come on, grow up!
I thought my first pick 3 wager was bad because afterwards, the races appeared to be too obvious and no value – key word being AFTERWARDS. I even conjured up a reason and convinced myself why this was a bad bet (What I wrote above). What makes this behavior bad is that if I lost the $8 pick 3 wager, I would not have thought too much about why I lost and chalked it up to "I just got beat". But because I did have a good idea about the race but still decided to add some low odds horses to the mix, I beat myself up over 60 cents and was convinced this was the worse wager I ever made and even worse; convinced myself to change playing strategy. Emotion and psychology, another tool that needs improvement for wagering on horses.
The reason why I am writing this post? I came away from the day with some knowledge that I would like to share. First, I would like to mention a few events that made the day quite memorable and some of the lessons learned on this past Sunday.
The first event happened in the first race- a 6F event. As the horses broke from the gate and headed to the first call, the #1, Bucks our boy, appeared to have been bumped a little; which resulted in him to go nuts, throw off the jockey, and make a left turn in the gap, hence heading down the first turn the opposite way. As the horses were rounding the far turn into the stretch, the outrider finally had control (After two failed attempts to get him) of the errant horse. The rider did a great job averting tragedy, which I am very thankful for as I had my six year old daughter with me and we were standing by the rail. Lesson learned – if taking small children to the track and an accident/breakdown happens, especially if you are close, be prepared to face the wife and find a good child psychologist.
The next event happened in the fourth race – a maiden claimer at 7 furlongs. There were only two horses that appeared to be good contenders, the #1 and #2; both third time starters who raced against each other in their last race – coming in 2nd and 3rd. The #1 appeared to be better as it was the horse that came in 2nd and had a good jockey. The #2, who came in third appeared almost equal on paper, but was 2nd time lasix – so I considered them close to equal in win probability. After scratches, there were six horses that would be going to the gate. Since two horses stood out on paper, I planned to skip the race as I was sure both would be bet down and be underlays.
With seven minutes to post time, I think many also had the same idea of skipping the race as the W-P-S pools did not have much money in them – the sum of all three pools barely passed $1000. When the tote refreshed, something caught the eye of many at the track; the #1 had an additional $3000 placed on it – resulting in the odds to be 1/9. The horse looked good on paper, but a maiden claiming race at 7 furlongs – someone (Many, like me, assumed this money came from one wager) was mighty confident! Talk spread throughout the racetrack of inside money – and/or who would risk so much money on a race like this – the theories grew as post time approached. Exhibiting the behavior of a typical horseplayer, I had my own theories to share. One, my first guess was that someone made a mistake. Two, someone was trying to ruse the crowd by placing a large wager on a horse then withdraws the bet right before the bell goes off. Three, someone really really liked this horse enough to place a huge win wager – hey, people like to throw money around and play the part of Mr. Big Shot for 15 minutes. Coincidently, the place and show pools did not have much money in them nor did their percentages mirror the win pool.
When the gates opened, the money stayed in the pools, so no ploy. As the horse crossed the finish line, the odds did level off a bit as the #1 finished at 4/5 and the #2 at 6/5 –which by the way -won. Lesson learned – large amounts hitting the tote board and huge odds swings can make for good conversation at the track; but who cares? Would you change your betting strategy based on assumptions of whom and why a large sum was bet?
The third event really got me mad; it was the first time ever that I made a Pick 3 wager (Races 5-6-7) for under $10, won, and LOST MONEY! I made a simple 2x2x2 wager using what would become the favorites with a logical (Appeared at the time) longshot. After loosing , I saw two signs that should have told me that this wager was not worth the $8 risk. One, field sizes, these fields were short and with the scratches, anyone who made a wager with these scratched horses got the favs on their ticket. Two, the Vi for all three races in the sequence was >40! Doh! On Sunday, I kept the Vi in mind when structuring the wager, but I totally left the field sizes and the impact on the pools out of the equation. Yes, I did keep in mind that if all three of my top choices win, the payout would be low – but not $7.40 for a $1 dollar ticket!!!! Lesson learned – or was it?
I wish I could erase all emotion at the track. Without emotion, I would be a millionaire (or bankrupt :confused: ). Because I was mad at the last pick 3 sequence, I did not play the next one. For races 8-9-10, I structured a 1x5x1 wager for $5 in which I would bet the $2 amount for $10. I would use my top picks – which I assumed would be the favs or 2nd favs for the first and third legs. For the middle race, I included all five horses; an allowance race for non-winners of three in which I did not like the top rated horse and the field appeared to be competitive for early speed. My wish in this race would be for some chaos even though the Vi was 45. Well, the highest priced horse won the middle race at 11-1 and my two picks won the first and third legs – paying $467 for the pick 3. Whoulda coulda shoulda; but I had this wager down and at the machine, I let my emotion take control, cleared the screen, and walked away.
So, what was the final lesson learned? Play your game; plain and simple. If you do your homework and spend the time the night before handicapping, play what has been successful for you. I was mad at my 60 cent loss in a pick 3 wager, come on, grow up!
I thought my first pick 3 wager was bad because afterwards, the races appeared to be too obvious and no value – key word being AFTERWARDS. I even conjured up a reason and convinced myself why this was a bad bet (What I wrote above). What makes this behavior bad is that if I lost the $8 pick 3 wager, I would not have thought too much about why I lost and chalked it up to "I just got beat". But because I did have a good idea about the race but still decided to add some low odds horses to the mix, I beat myself up over 60 cents and was convinced this was the worse wager I ever made and even worse; convinced myself to change playing strategy. Emotion and psychology, another tool that needs improvement for wagering on horses.