DanG
6th February 2007, 11:35.40 AM
Disclaimer…
[This is not tested in the traditional sense. It’s based on something I do and has proven effective under live fire for myself at least. Proceed with caution if you alter HTR ratings with this unscientific research]
It’s that time of year when the 3yo and even 4yo suddenly blossom and grow up seemingly overnight. HTR’s Pedigree rating is powerful at pointing out those with the genetics capable of improving and those that will hit the wall as distance / competition increases.
Ken writes often that “age” is a much underrated handicapping factor. Let’s look at a horse’s age vs. a human to get a feel for what were actually betting on.
Average life span:
Human (United States) = 77.2yo / Thoroughbred horse 24yo
(BTW: The human life expectancy is rising dramatically lately. I know HTR has added several years to mine! :) )
In terms of the human scale each year of a horses life = 3.2 years. There is a flaw with this metric…A horse can reproduce and 1 ½ years while a human can realistically reproduce at 13yo. (Note: I picked 13 because a couple years ago at my stepdaughter’s softball party one of the 13yo showed up pregnant. If THAT doesn’t give a parent the chills. :eek: )
So, considering a horse “matures” at a faster rate (approximately twice as fast) lets adjust the scale to each year of a horses life 2X or = 6.4 years.
This produces the following rough equivalency table…
Horse’s actual age: Human equivalent:
01 06
02 13
03 19
04 26
05 32
06 38
07 45
08 51
09 58
10 64
11 70
12 77
I admit these are major league ballpark estimations, but the spirit of the scale is relevant.
So, when we wager on a 2yo at Saratoga or Del Mar we are wagering on a 10yo athlete, give or take.
We then ask an animal to start competing in our triple crown at approximately 15yo. An entirely separate issue but I would LOVE to see the Triple Crown pushed back one more year and abolish 2yo racing. Won’t happen, but there is no law against dreaming.
What to do with this data?...Well, beyond the realization of just how young these animals are as they rapidly develop, we can approximate a “maturity adjustment” to use with various HTR ratings.
(Note: The cream of the crop improve at a much greater rate than the population as a whole. By the cream of the crop I mean the major HTR pedigree horses and the random freaks we see from time to time.)
HTR has several ratings that are on the same scale. (PER, PAC, EPR, SOR, PSCN and Class etc…)
I tried (Again, this is an approximation) to include a similar population in each age group. (I.e.…Sex, range of EPR, Mid – Major tracks only.)
Let’s take the average PSCN produced by each age group:
Horses Age: Avg. Winning PSCN:
02 90.7
03 93.8
04 95.5
05 96
06 96
07 95.7
08 95
09 94.3
10 92.6
11 92
12 91
As we can see the average horse levels off in ability at approximately 5-6 years old. (Or the equivalent of a 35 - 40yo human)
The majority of growth occurs between 2 and 3 with another significant spurt at 4.
This time of year we have many new 3 & 4yo coming off layoffs and we are basing some ratings off their past immature form. If we approximate the “average” expected growth of a normal horse, we can reasonably say for each 150 days a 4 yo. is laid up that a 1 pt maturity point can be rewarded. (Within these scaled HTR ratings, Cramer #’s etc require a different scale.)
“Each 150 days off = 1 point.”
In addition, if the animal has a monster pedigree, connections and / or raw ability this “maturity adjustment” can more than double.
The obvious drawback being, you are “rewarding” animals who have been laid up for various reasons. The usual lack of conditioning and reason for absence rules still apply. However, these “grow-up” plays as there called can produce some nice payoffs.
A very powerful angle is when a grass horse shows a significant jump in their 2yo grass races as compared to their dirt form. When as a 3yo they are debuted in a dirt / artificial race and exceed their prior “best” grass ratings they are very live when they switch back to the lawn. The reverse in surfaces is also true although not quite as dramatic in my experience.
(This obviously becomes far more powerful when HTR’s pedigree, workout and PPX information show all systems are go.)
Nothing written in stone here. Just something I find useful and I hope you do as well. “Lurkers” beware, this does apply to you…this technique needs HTR’s ratings to be most effective! :D
[This is not tested in the traditional sense. It’s based on something I do and has proven effective under live fire for myself at least. Proceed with caution if you alter HTR ratings with this unscientific research]
It’s that time of year when the 3yo and even 4yo suddenly blossom and grow up seemingly overnight. HTR’s Pedigree rating is powerful at pointing out those with the genetics capable of improving and those that will hit the wall as distance / competition increases.
Ken writes often that “age” is a much underrated handicapping factor. Let’s look at a horse’s age vs. a human to get a feel for what were actually betting on.
Average life span:
Human (United States) = 77.2yo / Thoroughbred horse 24yo
(BTW: The human life expectancy is rising dramatically lately. I know HTR has added several years to mine! :) )
In terms of the human scale each year of a horses life = 3.2 years. There is a flaw with this metric…A horse can reproduce and 1 ½ years while a human can realistically reproduce at 13yo. (Note: I picked 13 because a couple years ago at my stepdaughter’s softball party one of the 13yo showed up pregnant. If THAT doesn’t give a parent the chills. :eek: )
So, considering a horse “matures” at a faster rate (approximately twice as fast) lets adjust the scale to each year of a horses life 2X or = 6.4 years.
This produces the following rough equivalency table…
Horse’s actual age: Human equivalent:
01 06
02 13
03 19
04 26
05 32
06 38
07 45
08 51
09 58
10 64
11 70
12 77
I admit these are major league ballpark estimations, but the spirit of the scale is relevant.
So, when we wager on a 2yo at Saratoga or Del Mar we are wagering on a 10yo athlete, give or take.
We then ask an animal to start competing in our triple crown at approximately 15yo. An entirely separate issue but I would LOVE to see the Triple Crown pushed back one more year and abolish 2yo racing. Won’t happen, but there is no law against dreaming.
What to do with this data?...Well, beyond the realization of just how young these animals are as they rapidly develop, we can approximate a “maturity adjustment” to use with various HTR ratings.
(Note: The cream of the crop improve at a much greater rate than the population as a whole. By the cream of the crop I mean the major HTR pedigree horses and the random freaks we see from time to time.)
HTR has several ratings that are on the same scale. (PER, PAC, EPR, SOR, PSCN and Class etc…)
I tried (Again, this is an approximation) to include a similar population in each age group. (I.e.…Sex, range of EPR, Mid – Major tracks only.)
Let’s take the average PSCN produced by each age group:
Horses Age: Avg. Winning PSCN:
02 90.7
03 93.8
04 95.5
05 96
06 96
07 95.7
08 95
09 94.3
10 92.6
11 92
12 91
As we can see the average horse levels off in ability at approximately 5-6 years old. (Or the equivalent of a 35 - 40yo human)
The majority of growth occurs between 2 and 3 with another significant spurt at 4.
This time of year we have many new 3 & 4yo coming off layoffs and we are basing some ratings off their past immature form. If we approximate the “average” expected growth of a normal horse, we can reasonably say for each 150 days a 4 yo. is laid up that a 1 pt maturity point can be rewarded. (Within these scaled HTR ratings, Cramer #’s etc require a different scale.)
“Each 150 days off = 1 point.”
In addition, if the animal has a monster pedigree, connections and / or raw ability this “maturity adjustment” can more than double.
The obvious drawback being, you are “rewarding” animals who have been laid up for various reasons. The usual lack of conditioning and reason for absence rules still apply. However, these “grow-up” plays as there called can produce some nice payoffs.
A very powerful angle is when a grass horse shows a significant jump in their 2yo grass races as compared to their dirt form. When as a 3yo they are debuted in a dirt / artificial race and exceed their prior “best” grass ratings they are very live when they switch back to the lawn. The reverse in surfaces is also true although not quite as dramatic in my experience.
(This obviously becomes far more powerful when HTR’s pedigree, workout and PPX information show all systems are go.)
Nothing written in stone here. Just something I find useful and I hope you do as well. “Lurkers” beware, this does apply to you…this technique needs HTR’s ratings to be most effective! :D