Neat HTR Consensus stat…

[DanG]

First…This is an amazing rating to base a spot play on. If you play it straight up you beat the takeout by 12%. For those of us who have tried to “black box” all races know that is an incredible feat.

Let’s take a particular group:

(Stk. and Allowance fast track sprinters.)

Top line is if the horse broke his maiden in their first 3 starts. The second line is greater than 3 starts.

The early success / or lack of can be very indicative of the animals racing instincts. Not the key to the Holy Grail, just something to keep in mind with quality horses. (Note: With Foreign imports this is a very powerful angle. Early success at a major circuit is almost always a sign of quality.)
Win% WP% $ ROI $ Sample
37% 56% $0.98 2,946
27% 47% $0.85 1,566

[tomcat]

So Dan, how do you bet this example?

[DanG]

So Dan, how do you bet this example?
TomCat;

TomCat;

I hope this doesn’t come out wrong, but “I don’t” in the strictest sense.

I used the HTR consensus along with it to illustrate its impact on an already strong rating.
I have no spot play based on it.

It’s one of those things that gets filed away subconsciously with good animals that serious thought is put into their first few starts. The “Charismatic’s” and “Lava Man’s” aside it’s a good indicator of the connections evaluation of the animal.

I do have on my Access PP’s a section for the details of horse’s maiden win. (Trk, Dist, Surf, EPR, Tag, FYI, and # of Sts it took etc…). It’s just part of my overall approach evaluating the quality of the runner.

I think I put this in the wrong section. It belongs more with “random thoughts” and “thinking out loud” than as a spot play.

Stay warm TomCat…Tough conditions in your neck of the woods right now.

[edw]

Thanks for the information and insight. Greatly appreciated.

Were both samples taken from the same tracks and dates and, if so, are those stats telling us that almost twice as many horses break their maiden in 3 or fewer starts than those that need more attempts to succeed?

[DanG]

Were both samples taken from the same tracks and dates and, if so, are those stats telling us that almost twice as many horses break their maiden in 3 or fewer starts than those that need more attempts to succeed?
That’s interesting you point that out EDW…

Yes, same tracks & dates.

That’s exactly correct within this group of runners the amount of winners was linear with the maiden breaking attempts. (Also true without attaching the HTR consensus.)

With claiming stock it’s not quite a linear factor.

[tomcat]

Dan, I just got home from Naples, Fl where I played golf in shorts and 70's. Winter is usually over by now. Boy, this ugly!

It must be that global warming, tobacco and Republicans. It's all their fault.
BTW the horses love it. They are running and jumping, having a good time.