KEN MASSA QUALIFIES!!!!!

[Donnie]

High fives to Ken!! He came in 5th today online!!! Way to go guy!!!

[Buckfan]

Way to go Ken !!!! Nice job....

[km]

Thank you - i wasn't even going to enter, Mayo talked me into it. He's a winner - thanks Mike - double the bullets at the NHC now.

As usual got most of the big points from PED and Wk plays. I was amazed at how many people were playing chalk in this contest. After the first leg there were 50 people that had the $4.20 winner - what are they thinking!?

Large HTR contingent at the NHC this year, about half of them from Texas! - perhaps a record turnout, i've lost count, it will be fun in January :D

[Mall]

Wow! Hats off to you Ken. I guess I'm finally going to get to meet you in person. I don't know what the count is either, but it sure seems like it's quite a bit higher than last year. Maybe you should plan some kind of get together.

I'm thinking of something like one of the late night performances at the Rio by the artist formerly known as Prince, who I think may have started using his old name again. I might be able to score some backstage passes and based on what I heard at Cby, Prince is a pretty creative handicapper who loves to talk horses before & after his concerts. All you need to do is say the word Big Guy, & I'll go to work.

[Zaf]

Hats off to our Guru !!! Congrats Ken !!!

[DanG]

Well done Massa!

The tournament expected and deserved you.

[Cliff]

Way to go, KM!

[njcurveball]

Congrats Ken and all the other HTR qualifiers!

Back stage passes to Prince! WOW! I need to enter more tourneys. ;-)

Jim

[dehere]

Mall, presumably Prince is after the closing party at Bally's when we can all celebrate one of the HTR folks walking away with the big check. Some of us gotta handicap before and during the thing eh?

[Donnie]

So Mall---
You got any connections to Toby Keith? He raises/races horses. Would love to sit and chat with that guy for a couple hours! Former football player, current thoroughbred owner, Willie Nelson party-partner, and damned fine country singer!! I'll sign up for a couple hours....am damned sure it would turn into an all-nighter very quickly.

What other celebs are involved with racing? I know Tim Conway loves the races, as did Jack Klugman.....

[Mark]

Well done, Ken, and well deserved.

[njcurveball]

Don't count out "Oscar", he is still ticking. He has broke many a player in the Celebrity Death Pool! ;-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Klugman

I would think that if you went to talk horses with Toby Keith, you might not get a word in and you might not even care. ;-)

[Bob]

Highly deserved! Most certainly earned!

You are absolutely correct about the chalk...players were hitting 3 and 4 winners in a row and then disappearing down the leaderboard as the cappers came in later in the day.

I played but quite a few of my picks were in the midrange of 6-1 to 12-1 morning line range but yesterday was either chalk or capper-size payoffs.

Still learning this contest game and you, this board and HTR are great teachers, thanks!

Best,
Bob G

[AlanLN]

Ken,
I was thinking the same thing about all the chaulk players. Although early on there was alot of short prices. Halfway through (6 races)the leader had picked every winner. In the last 6 races he had just $6, a 2nd, and finished 14th. Pretty wild last half!

Good luck to you and Mike in Vegas!

[dehere]

A little counterpoint if you please.

It seemed to me that yesterday was kind of a split day. Shorter price horses looked like they were darn legitimate early on and then it seemed like spreading made some sense - maybe aided by the fact that after the first few races where some folks had hit all or nearly all of the low-priced winners, many of us were going nowhere fast. At that point, thankfully, spreading worked out okay and it was the stabbers who ruled the day at the end.

However, I think you not only need to play the races on the card(s) and the players you're playing against but you also gotta play to the event. Basically, chalk has not done all that badly in past events in this series. Heck, the day I qualified the highest price horse I hit with was a 9/1 horse.

Basically, I think there is a big difference in a contest where all wagers are on mandatory races than in most events where you get to pick and choose from bunches of discretionary races. With 100% mandatory the point is to win the races and get some points. Granted, there is such a low risk factor in leaving a 6/5 to 2/1 horse out of the mix that it makes sense to pass those horse regardless of their legitimacy. However, I got no problem playing a 3/1 to 5/1 horse in these mandatory races.

Take a look at the history of NHC events if you please. It is pretty darn rare that more than two horses in any of the end of month events paid more than $25 to win or more than $15 to place.

In the first event (4/29) there was two decent place horses ($17.40 and $24.40) and no winner hit for more than $25. (I had neither place horse and still qualified).

The second event (6/24) was better with two $25+ winners and two $15+ place horses although one race had one of both. And, one of the $25+ winners was in the next to last race where lots of folks were stabbing.

The next event (8/26) had one $25+ winner and one $15+ place horse, but once again those two were in the same race - the last race where 100 players were probably stabbing.

The event for 9/30 had only one $25+ winner - in the last race again when nearly everyone is stabbing.

Yesterday was not much difference. Granted, there were two nice winners and one nice place horse but those were in the later races once again.

I guess my point is - if you handicap a mandatory race and spot a legitimate horse who happens to be going off at 4/1 to 9/1, bet the damn horse instead of trying to win the thing early in the day on a long shot special. But what the heck do I know? I lost out on two 3/1 and 7/2 horses in the last race who couldn't hold on for the last 100 yards of the race.

[DanG]

Interesting Henry.

Just like in a pic-3, 4, or 6 sequence. Sometimes who just have to “take what the defense gives you”. You can’t always ‘force bombs… especially when there in a deep zone or the VI resembles the fifty yard line.

BTW:Someday I’ll have Ken Massa to blame ;) for getting involved in contests. I really enjoy hearing you guys go through the process.

Best of luck to the crew at Bally’s. At this rate HTR will have its own floor of rooms.

[Mall]

dehere: It sounds like you're aware of the fact that Prince's new Club doesn't even open it's doors until 10 p.m., and patrons are warned that there is no scheduled start time for his performance. I saw today that he's booked to perform at the Super Bowl, so I gather he's at least capable of showing up at a specific time. fwiw, I agree with your assessment of the nhc contests, the majority of which have been decided by less than a buck.

donnie: I don't know Toby Keith, but I do know that he owns the country western bar at Harrah's, since I spent the better part of an evening there in Jan. If there's one thing I've learned since moving south, it's that country western music has a way of growing on you, especially when the singer/songwriter has a good sense of humor.

[km]

Thanks again for all the congrats and interesting posts.

I'm glad everyone is so excited. I had planned to possibly have a mini seminar the day before the HWS (Jan 17), but now that i need to be in Vegas twice, i can't leave the family for the extra day. So I'm going to drive in Thursday morning both weekends. Mall, please give me a raincheck on the Pince tickets so i can take my wife next summer - much appreciate the offer!

No seminar until July, but we will have some new software to work with by Jan 10 and it will definitely help tournament players.

Mayo mentioned to me on the phone that we could get a hospitality suite at Ballys for an HTR party, probably Saturday night when the contest is over. Everybody welcome, including Prince and Toby Keith. As Dehere said, let's hope we are toasting someone for a winning weekend. They already host the NTRA Thursday night party for all participants and most people leave early to handicap the races, so we don't want to do it prior to the tourney. If anyone has thoughts on that, let us know.

[NC Tony]

A little counterpoint if you please.

It seemed to me that yesterday was kind of a split day. Shorter price horses looked like they were darn legitimate early on and then it seemed like spreading made some sense - maybe aided by the fact that after the first few races where some folks had hit all or nearly all of the low-priced winners, many of us were going nowhere fast. At that point, thankfully, spreading worked out okay and it was the stabbers who ruled the day at the end.

However, I think you not only need to play the races on the card(s) and the players you're playing against but you also gotta play to the event. Basically, chalk has not done all that badly in past events in this series. Heck, the day I qualified the highest price horse I hit with was a 9/1 horse.

Basically, I think there is a big difference in a contest where all wagers are on mandatory races than in most events where you get to pick and choose from bunches of discretionary races. With 100% mandatory the point is to win the races and get some points. Granted, there is such a low risk factor in leaving a 6/5 to 2/1 horse out of the mix that it makes sense to pass those horse regardless of their legitimacy. However, I got no problem playing a 3/1 to 5/1 horse in these mandatory races.

Take a look at the history of NHC events if you please. It is pretty darn rare that more than two horses in any of the end of month events paid more than $25 to win or more than $15 to place.

In the first event (4/29) there was two decent place horses ($17.40 and $24.40) and no winner hit for more than $25. (I had neither place horse and still qualified).

The second event (6/24) was better with two $25+ winners and two $15+ place horses although one race had one of both. And, one of the $25+ winners was in the next to last race where lots of folks were stabbing.

The next event (8/26) had one $25+ winner and one $15+ place horse, but once again those two were in the same race - the last race where 100 players were probably stabbing.

The event for 9/30 had only one $25+ winner - in the last race again when nearly everyone is stabbing.

Yesterday was not much difference. Granted, there were two nice winners and one nice place horse but those were in the later races once again.

I guess my point is - if you handicap a mandatory race and spot a legitimate horse who happens to be going off at 4/1 to 9/1, bet the damn horse instead of trying to win the thing early in the day on a long shot special. But what the heck do I know? I lost out on two 3/1 and 7/2 horses in the last race who couldn't hold on for the last 100 yards of the race.

Henry,

I actually handicapped that horse on 9/30 and not stabbed so to speak. But anyway......

Way to go Ken ....Can't wait to meet you and the rest of the HTR team!!!

NC Tony

[dehere]

And I'm sure Ken handicapped the Mandella horse in the last race on Saturday.

Tony, the operative word in my discussion of the 9/30 event was "nearly" doncha think?

I'm curious though - would you have played the same horse if you were sitting in fifth place at that point - or in seventh?

The DVD is in the mail.

[NC Tony]

Honestly the way the track was playing that day I would have to say yes, just like we played Brother Derek on BC Day as opposed to adding in Giacomo in our Super, as SA was totally speed biased that day. The horse had huge upside and favorable trainer chance etc etc.....The Odds just played into our favor making the decision easier I guess.

On that day there were 3 horses i could not play, and I would not play if I was betting real cash anyway. Was fortunate to have a Baffert 2yo get overbet to odds on, going 2 turns for the first time, from PP 11 with a short run to turn 1.Thank you betting public !!!


The biggest mistake I've seen most players make in leading positions for the last race of an all mandatory race contest, is playing to protect their position instead of playing what you really perceive to be the best horse, regardless of odds. Obviously if you are trying to win or place you and you need a play of whatever odds gets you where you need to be, you have to make a play the hurdles you over others players, otherwise you are just plain stupid.


Thanks for the disk I got it!!

NC Tony

[dehere]

I belive ya Tony - you are the man when it comes to actually making money in this handicapping game!

Speaking of Giacomo. My dad died this past summer. He was a bit demented when he passed but who cares about that? We spent many a saturday afternoons in front of the tv, watching horseracing. He never could quite pick out which horse we were cheering for as they ran around the track but got a real kick out of the winners we occasionally had. He would kinda bounce up and down in his wheel chair as I raised my voice and announced - a bit too loudly - "we got 'em Dad - we got 'em"! I'll never forget those times.

I'll also never forget Derby Day, May - '05. Dad's name was Jack. Before the race he was watching the tv and announced that he kinda liked that Giacomo horse as that was his nickname when he was a kid. Of course, me being the big handicapper said - sure dad, that sounds cool, but you gotta bet this horse - or that horse. Just not Giacomo.

Dad died early in the morning on the 20th of August. The entire family was there. It just so happenned that the Pacific Classic was run that day. Needless to say amidst the family times and the memories I placed a sentimental bet on Giacomo in the race. Unfortunately, the charm of the nickname did not carry over to that race.

So we get to the BC this November and we get to the Classic. And who do I leave out of the superfecta bet? I think you included him in a bet on your own. I wish I had - not because he was the best or even close to it - just for dad.

Merry Christmas.

[NC Tony]

I belive ya Tony - you are the man when it comes to actually making money in this handicapping game!

Speaking of Giacomo. My dad died this past summer. He was a bit demented when he passed but who cares about that? We spent many a saturday afternoons in front of the tv, watching horseracing. He never could quite pick out which horse we were cheering for as they ran around the track but got a real kick out of the winners we occasionally had. He would kinda bounce up and down in his wheel chair as I raised my voice and announced - a bit too loudly - "we got 'em Dad - we got 'em"! I'll never forget those times.

I'll also never forget Derby Day, May - '05. Dad's name was Jack. Before the race he was watching the tv and announced that he kinda liked that Giacomo horse as that was his nickname when he was a kid. Of course, me being the big handicapper said - sure dad, that sounds cool, but you gotta bet this horse - or that horse. Just not Giacomo.

Dad died early in the morning on the 20th of August. The entire family was there. It just so happenned that the Pacific Classic was run that day. Needless to say amidst the family times and the memories I placed a sentimental bet on Giacomo in the race. Unfortunately, the charm of the nickname did not carry over to that race.

So we get to the BC this November and we get to the Classic. And who do I leave out of the superfecta bet? I think you included him in a bet on your own. I wish I had - not because he was the best or even close to it - just for dad.

Merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and your familiy and the HTR Family as well.

Wow I wish you would have told me that story on BC Day. I love stories like that.Giacomo would have been an automatic include, as the tears would have been flowing. I love those stories about family and racing and association of one horse with this loved on or that one.

No I didn't include Giacomo on a personal play either all for the same reasons. Guess we can now conclude he does like to run at CD

NC Tony