Fast Pace Horses

[delayjf]

It has occurred to me that perhaps some of these fast pace horses fail because the race simply takes to much out of them. I have no statistics, but I been noticing more and more horses that battled hard against a bias or to overcome a horredous wide trip, don't seem to fire the next time out (often at lower odds)as logic might perdict. Rather it is the second time back ( usually at higher odds) from the pace duel or tough trip that they have come back to run well. Could be a trainer pattern.

[Bruce]

Well that's what Quinn wrote about and the Raggies kind of think about in their form
cycle analysis. The Raggies take how wide a horse is into consideration into their
figures and so a horse that's 4-wide could get a good figure and under the
Raggies thinking "go backward" the next time. (I hate to say "bounce," so overused.)

Humans have similar cycle patterns. Think of it: fitness isn't a straight line. You
improve, plateau, get sore, go back, improve a lot, have an off day when
you're sick. Why not horses? So if a horse exerts himself with a tough pace, why
shouldn't he be sore afterwards and need some time off?

bruce

[George]

Thats why I keep a "horses to watch" file. Have noticed for years that a horse I thought well of after a good race that did not do well in next race would score at big mutuels next time out. Have kept a tickler file of horses that "should" win and didn't for many years. Next race I bet them even if they don't figure. Has worked well for me.

[delayjf]

George,
Had a recent play like that at AP in a turf, Horse got blocked all the way down the stretch in a turf route, came back at 7-2 two weeks later and ran horrible with no excuse. Again, two weeks later wins at 13-1. Makes you wonder if trainers are reading trip notes on their horses and holding back next time as the crowd jumps all over the "bad trip horse".
I see some validity to the Raggies form cycle analysis, not sure I buy the incorporating of lengths lost around the turn into the figures, but mathematically is seems valid (on paper). However, I've lost a lot of bets on horses who are stuck on the rall behind horses and are not able to start their run until it's too late, while his rival who was wide got in gear earlier and got a length or two jump on the inside horse. How do you quantify not being able to run at your top speed for a 1/16 of a mile (or more). You can see this happen all the time.
delayjf

[MtKen]

I've always used the Prat figs somewhat casually to judge a horse's overall ability. But just yesterday I was scanning Prats looking for a horse's peak number & what happened next. Most older horses do seem to regress after they surpass their previous hi by at least a couple of points. Something else to look more closely at. Maybe K1's that haven't peaked are better bets is one idea that springs to mind.

George, good idea on following up on these.

[Bruce]

Another wrinkle to add to form cycles today:
Horses are bouncing less -- this could due to drugs or whatever, but this makes this
type of analysis a bit more tricky.

bruce

[delayjf]

Bruce,
Interesting point, but I'm curious, what do you base this observation on?
delayjf

[Bruce]

Comments from the Raggies people and other Sheet players. I'm not a Sheets player myself but am familiar with the material and try and use some of the principles in my play. Their stuff with 3 yr olds is dynamite.
You can read the book or send away for the tapes pretty cheaply to get a good education on form cycles even if you don't buy the (too pricey) Sheets.

bruce