The Run for the Roses

[hurrikane]

just wanted to maybe throw some things around for while before post time.

Anyone feel Point Given is a throwout with the 17 post?

[George]

Post 17 may be an advantage. Less gate time and Gary Stevens has won the derby from out there.
Thunder Gulch comes to mind. Stevens rode him out of post !4 or 13?

Every time I look at this race see more "spooks". Really like Millenium Wind bad hoof and all.
What is really bothering me is Eddie "COME TO GET THE MONEY" Delahoussey is here to ride Jamaican Rum. Eddie only rides in Triple Crown when he thinks he has a real shot.

[Glen]

Just limited data here.

Dirt Routes
nFLD>=11
MLO<=2.5
nPP>=11
5/31
16.13%
-56.13 ROI
$5.44 Avg Mutual


Dirt Routes
nFLD>=11
MLO<=2.5
nPP<11
72/291
24.74%
-34.79
$5.27

Me playing against Point Given.

[hurrikane]

Good points George.
here's the past posts stats....they are of course a little misleading as it includes the races before they had every 3yo in the country running.
WINNING POST POSITIONS
http://www.drf2000.com/home/crown2001/kd/derby_stats.html#positions

I'm still hanging on Balt Star..nice impact figs..just a lot of speed in there...but in a 17 horse race anything can happen.

[MikeDee]

Well I like Point Given a lot but I can't buy the theory that post 17 is a good thing, I don't care how long his stride is. He will have to go to the front and that will take a lot of energy and he will be runing a longer race the the others. If he wins this one he is one hell of a horse!!

Balto Star looks like he's really in good position, post 3, no1 power, ppscan and esp should get to the front very easily, and a good resistance number to.

I think congree and millennium have a chance as closers. I'll be working these 4 in my exoctics.

[Glen]

Trifector Ticket....

1st)Balto Star/AP Valentine

2nd)Balto Star/AP Valentine/Point Given/Jamaican Rum

3rd)Balto Star/AP Valentine/Point Given/Jamaican Rum/Monarchos/Fifty Stars

$24

Might Sub Dollar Bill for 50 Stars...

[George]

Mike......further explanation of why I think post 17 is good for PG. Baffert will not send PG early, thats the job of Congaree to wear down Keats and Balto Star. Stevens likes to slip in middle pack on outside, work his way up and close big time on outside. Post 17 will work fine.

Think Eddie D will follow Gary wherever he goes. Like Glue. For 25 years prior to Jerry Bailey becoming the stakes star, Eddie D won nearly all the stakes money paid in this country. He is now behind Bailey and Stevens in stakes earnings. He has not ridden in the Derby in several years because he could not get a competitive mount. Why is he here this year? He came to get da money.

I expect to see Millenium Wind out front in the stretch with Point Given and Jamaican Rum coming hard on the outside. Should be fun to watch!!