Manual Paceline Entry

[Houndog]

Most of you probably knew this all along, but being relatively new to this software I just discovered this for myself. When going into PL0 mode and selecting pacelines it remembers the pacelines you selected even when exiting the program. Also toggling between paceline modes is very helpful for learning purposes.

Most of the time I just use PL5 and let the program select the lines. It does a good job most of the time. I thought the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder would be a good race to experiment with PL0 mode. I also have a sense that the track to track adjustments seem to be very accurate. If I just eyeball the pp's LITF's Bay Meadows or GG races seem the best. Actually with the track to track adjustment the Calder race shows better on the Velocity Screen. I normally don't go back that far for a paceline, but in these types of races many lines are usuable. This program has other nice features also, but being familiar with the Sartin Methodology I naturally gravitated to the Velocity Screen. Any comments or suggestions are welcome.

[tbrown]

Just my Sartin roots too, but I try to use lines that represent what Ithink the horse will do today. I would use a Calder line if the recent races suggest the horse is ready to run his best.
LITF is third off a layoff - I would not use either of the last two because they do not represent his best when in form. Likewise, I prefer to use the same track and distance whenever possible.

I always start with PL5 and look to see what calls it is making - I change maybe 10% of them.
If I don't have a solid reason to change, I don't.

But like you say, it is nice to be able to try several lives and see what is best.

[Mark]

It's worth remembering the PL choice is static until you change it. Churning a variety of races and/or tracks, it is easy to alter a PL-5 line to PL-X and the next race you view will default to PL-X.

[njcurveball]

My suggestion is to try to vary your paceline selection to the class of horses you are dealing with. If they are maiden claimers or mid to low level claimers, I would start with PL-1. Many times these horses will run what looks like an awful race. But they will distribute their energy early or toward the middle of the race, thus making their finish look terrible.

With the Sartin stuff and the next generations, we have to compare horses on a fractional basis. By going back to line where the horse finished 4th for example, it may seem more reasonable, but by doing that the horse will come up 5th or worse in EVERY fraction.

For my taste, it is better NOT to go back for these horses unless you can make a valid excuse. And for me, this does not include if their last race is on a different surface. You will be surprised how consistent your model for these classes can be, if your paceline choices are heavy on the last line.

As for higher classes for older horses, some races it is possible to take ANY line in a horses past performance. If Michael Dickinson can win the Breeders Cup with a horse off more than a year, the talent pool is very deep in those cases. I think it is best to find a line to match todays class (Grade 1, 2, 3, etc.) and distance/surface.

Jim

[tbrown]

I use the fps screen, and try to go back for races with AP, EP, and %EE that are not abberrent.

[Huguenot]

NJ has a good point.
One way to test which PL is best for a particular class is use the ROBOT Tester, which will be improved in the new version.

I always check PL 1 and PL 4 after I look over a race to see if a horse rises to or near the top. If so, give it a real close look.

For contender selection, I (shudder) average pacelines something I never thought I would do, but it's a real judgement call because I take out lines that are aberrantly bad. Ideally I want to see three recent lines at today's distance structure and surface (try for fast or good) but I've hit some big ones going back a year especially if the horse is coming off a recent layoff. You've got to determine where the horse is in his form cycle. If he's coming up to a big one, going back a year can payoff big. If I have to go back a while I'll use more races.
I never use the average lines to "match up" the pace of the race because averages smooth out the results too much and don't reflect what's happening now. But they do an excellent job for now of identifying now top 4 contenders from which I proceed.

Another difficult job is deciding when a last race "off track" is indicative of a horse's condition or just how he runs on an off track. You can sometimes tell by prior performance of course but often you can't -- and an off track at Belmont may feel differently to a horse to an off track at Churchill Downs.

This is all why my betting has evolved toward picking longshots -- as long as I'm right some of the time I'm ahead. I don't want to make those close distinctions especially when I'm betting three tracks at a time.

[Houndog]

Thanks for all of your suggestions. Really like the ideas of PL1 for cheaper races and using the Robot handicapper for checking different paceline methods. Really appreciate the help.