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km
6th May 2006, 10:23.31 PM
Mutuel pool records
WPS: just short of $50 milllion
Exa: $23 million
Tri: $27 million
Sup: $8 million

That's one race! Horse racing is alive and well at least one day per year, and should prosper further if there is a Triple Crown winner and greater positive publicity.

Fractions
22.63 -- 46.07 - 110 and change

That was the kiss of death for the front runners. Barbaro did not get a perfect trip, he stumbled, was in tight and wide the whole way while close to that fast pace. But looked fresh at the wire while totally dominant. Because he is lightly raced and had 5 weeks prior to the Derby, he should have plenty of gas to win the Triple Crown. The only way he loses it is to a better horse - but who could that be?

Most sensible horseplayers knew Barbaro was a contender for sure, but who can take odds < 10/1, even < 15/1 on a Derby horse anymore?

PED > 800 gets those monster exactas last two years as it did this time with Bluegrass Cat (30/1). There are very few horses with PED that high and they have done well in the Derby. I'll have to run a test on that with purse > $100,000 and PED > 800.

#6 Showing Up, ran a pretty good race coming in 6th whlie closest to the those fractions. He is probably going to be a good miler. He won the Lexington at 8.5f two weeks ago.

Jazil and Steppenwoffer picked up late garbage - that was reasonably predictable with the fast pace. Brother Derek seemingly did not try at all, had an eventful trip, very strange race from the 18 box, yet finished 4th in the dead heat. Interesting to see if he returns in the Preakness. He may be the only horse talented enough to beat Barbaro on the square.

Congrats to Ronnie in our contest. He was the only player that had the exacta ($587) among his three horses - so i hope he bet $2 bucks on it because the contest prize is only $100! 21 people qualified for the next round of our contest. You'll have to finish top 10 next week. And with everyone else using Barbaro as the "free Bingo square" - how you gonna outsmart the rest of the group?! Will be a chess game to get into the top10 and compete for the grand prize at the Belmont. Thanks to all of you that participated - it was fun to look at the picks.

km
6th May 2006, 10:36.22 PM
And could there be a better human interest story for a KYDerby/Triple Crown winner than Michael Matz. Miracle man survives a terrible airline crash, risked his life to rescue others, and now trains a Ky Derby winner.

He must be thinking =
"Somebody up there likes me"

edw
7th May 2006, 07:07.00 AM
Ken,

Just curious, before doing the "purse > $100,000 and PED > 800" test do you believe there is anything inherent in the calculation of the PED number that would suggest in the money finishes? Easy ways to pick up 5 figure tri's is certain a worthy goal, it just doesn't seem logical for some reason once you have considerable history for the field.

I'd be remiss if I didn't add to the chorus of earlier in the week. Thanks for running a most professional and classy operation. How people act when things don't go well always says a lot. You and your associates are clearly Derby and Breeder's Cup caliber.

km
7th May 2006, 03:46.35 PM
Point well taken about PED edw

I don't want to go down the road of the Dosage boys, One race per year is not a signficant sample, but i have been feeling for a long time we have just scratched the surface using the PED rating. Test show that in any given sample, the higher the PED, the greater the impact with ITM finishes. The rating uses several statistical measures that go beyond overall sire WPS records, and includes the dam-sire in the calculation. Is that impact more signficant as the purses or class levels rise, or with FTS or with FT grass, distance stretch out, polytrack, wet, dashes, grass marathons,? etc. etc.

For example, MVM told me about his technique of comparing the previous PED rating with today's if the horse was changing distances or surface. The greater the gap, the more likely he would see improvement when the horse made the change and the prices can be huge. I can't prove that yet, but it is an interesting notion that goes well beyond the one dimensional sire win% we see in most publications.

But the obvious is also still working with the PED, such as the 6th at BEL on Saturday with a standout FT and top rated PED paying $52. We really want to dig into the profit potential of the PED at the seminar. Seems like most sophisticated horseplayers, including me, are hesitant to stake a lot on pedigree as a primary factor in their handicapping.

hracingplyr
8th May 2006, 02:49.16 PM
how does the PED do in the Belmont Stakes?

km
8th May 2006, 06:48.16 PM
hrplayer: i'll run some PED numbers on the Preakness & Belmont and post them later on here.

Derby money handle story below - $175 million !! wow

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=63697&subsec=1

km
9th May 2006, 12:17.12 AM
Here are the PED ratings for the last 6 years for winners of Preakness and Belmont.

Preakness
2000, Red Bullet, 783 (rank = 2)
2001, Point Given, 908 (1)
2002, War Emblem, 481 (9)
2003, Funny Cide, 450 (9)
2004, Smarty Jones, 503 (6)
2005, Afleet Alex, 536 (5)

Belmont
2000, Commendable, 433 (8)
2001, Point Given, 908 (2)
2002, Sarava, 636 (2)
2003, Empire Maker, 951 (1)
2004, Birdstone, 486 (7)
2005, Afleet Alex, 646 (5)

Sarava was by far the biggest bomb in this group $142 to Win.

There were a few scattered longshots coming in 2-3 with the rare PED > 800. Most notably AP Valentine who finished 2nd in 2001 Preakness, and Eddington, 3rd in 2004. But most of the Preakness and Belmont races did not even have a single horse rated that high.

Smarty Jones PED went from 503 in the Preakness to a 999 in the Belmont. That was because his sire (Elusive Quality) and Broodmare sire (Smile) had very few dirt route stakes starters at the time and his consecutive Gr1 wins rocketed the rating. Smarty finished 2nd in the Belmont, of course, missing the Triple Crown in 2004.

tomcat
10th May 2006, 08:47.52 AM
Now they tell us. I read today that Barbaro worked on the polyturf at Keeneland before the big race.

Anyone tracking horses after they run on polyturf?

hurrikane
10th May 2006, 11:37.00 AM
I have been watching it Tom. I haven't seen any anomolies going to PT or coming off PT.

only time will tell. wasn't there a training track with poly out there by you before?