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MVM
3rd May 2006, 07:45.14 PM
My title may be overstating what I am actually stating in this thread, but what the heck.

There are a lot of people on this board who are aspiring to be professional horseplayers, turn a profit, etc. Whether or not a particular individual is actually capable of doing this is a very relevant question, and a difficult one to answer.

IMO, this month's HTR newsletter has provided a litmus test for this capability.

STOP, do not pass go, don't try to refine your betting strategy and quit that research that you call data mining. Turn off HTR, print out the May06 newsletter, read it, and then return to page 4.

Read the 4th paragraph (it begins with the words "One question"). Read it again. Read it a few dozen more times. Now, wrap your brain around it, and try to understand WHY it is true. Try your hardest to write at least a semi-concise explanation of why this happens, rather than using vague indefinite terms like "Not every 8-1 shot is actually an 8-1 shot".
It is extremely difficult, and if nothing else you will gain an appreciation of the challenge facing Ken when he opted to provide what he termed a "capsule" answer.

I don't mean to sound harsh, or too much like David Carradine, but the capacity to grasp the basic concept that underlies the illogical results on page 3 of this month's newsletter is probably the closest thing handicappers have to "snatching the pebble from my hand".
I would have to make the prospect of any handicapper lacking this capacity turning a long-term profit a million to one shot

Victor
3rd May 2006, 10:34.33 PM
ok, I'll take a shot at this MVM,

Most horses (the majority) are BAD bets-- people are putting money on horses that don't deserve to be bet at all. The proportion of "undeserved" money bet on longer priced horses tends to be greater compared with the favorites because it's more difficult to find legitimate reasons to bet on them. Longshots are overbet because players make more mistakes betting them which means the greatest opportunities lie there.

AwolAtHTR
8th May 2006, 11:58.40 PM
well MVM,

I took your challenge and now that K-Drby is over, I am going to stop rereading para 4 and voice my opinion.

refer para 4: One question...ROI..well below the takeout...

The KLine is a solid predictor of the final odds of even (1.0) up to eleven (11:1) because the Avg Odds are within one point of the KLine. If a definition of SOLID was allowed to be more than one point then the KLine would be '..solid..' for a much higher value.

The Avg Win odds are BELOW the KLine for ALL values.

When a HTR handicapper finds a race in which the PICK is a horse with Win odds near or below the KLine, then the pick is LIKELY a good bet for the handicapper. IF the Win odds are '..way above..' then the handicapper should likely pass the race.

In other words, the Pick is NOT an overlay because the odds are above KLine. The Pick is likely a GOOD BET for the handicapper when the odds are below the KLine value.

The Win Odds are not a statistical value as with dice or poker or blackjack. The label/name Win Odds should be Win-Will-Pay or Win-Paid. For a predictor value such as KLine to be so close to reality is simply an amazing result and the Ken Massa is recognized for producing a truly '..magic..' formula. A handicapper's GOOD BET (aka Overlay) based on the KLine can only be defined using the personnal history for the handicapper.

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so, MVM, here is my attempt for '..a semi-concise explanation...'
yes, many thoughts about variations on the theme and details about using the KLine Exposed report but not now.
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awol