The other "Loners"

[Ron]

I know we're all aware that the lone "F" or lone "E" can be a good bet when we spot it, but I'm wondering if anyone has ever researched the lone "P" or lone "S" running style when it appears to be the only one in the race? (Especially when the rest of the running styles are all "E"'s or "S's".)


Ron

[Carl]

Hi Ron,

Quick Q for you.

Do you think the "E" "F" "S" "R" stuff means much? I ask cause I have done some work with it, can't get it too do too much, and certainly nothing approaching profitable ROI.

I think horse's running styles, like people hehe, change more than they are given credit for. They change because of health, training styles, distance and jockey preferences. I like qpts, I like *, I like ev and I like nESP, but never had much luck with Jim Cramer's letter designations.

What's your take on this?

later,
Carl

P.S. As to your first sentence about lone E's or F's. I don't think the lone "E" or lone "F" horse is that cool ROI wise either. Think it is mostly overbet. Of course, "opinions are what make horse racing".

[Ron]

Carl;

It's been my experience that running style and position can have quite a bit to do with the outcome of a race.
I like to ID the running styles of all the entries in the race before I move on to any other readouts.

When I look at the PP's of horses in any given field, I usually find some entries who have never won a race in there career using a running style other then just one. Whether it be on the lead,... or early,... or sustained,...or by pressing the pace.
Upon closer inspection I've noticed that when these one dimensional runners show a race where there running style appears to be altered or compromised for whatever reason (trainer or jockey intention, trip problems etc.) they have lost.
(the next thing I do is to see if these runners will be compromised today)

I've also noticed that not all horses are one dimensional and that some can be versatile and employ whatever running style it takes to win against today’s competition.
I usually discover these type of versatile runners when inspecting stakes and allowance races.

I don't know much about training horses, but it seems to me through casual observation over the years that once an animal has been trained to run in a certain style, it's difficult to alter.
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Depending on the PL mode one selects in HTR, the running line designations may or may not be accurate for practical use.
As an example,sometimes a horse that has gone wire to wire and should get an "F" or at least an "E" designation may get a "S" designation instead because it was taken from a pace line at an abhorrent distance or a surface other then fast. Or a combination of both.
Similar mis-labeling can happen with other running styles as well and unless one takes the time to verify the running lines by looking at the PP's and adjusting one's perception accordingly, one could be misled by the running line designation displayed as is.

There are other running styles that HTR does not address or ID in its output. They are the EP (early pressers) and PS (presser sustained).

I've discussed this topic with Ken at the recent seminar and he suggested what I thought were some excellent options and solutions that would improve the RS readouts dramatically.
I know that his plate is full these days completing the latest Windows version of HTR, but once it is stabilized, I have hopes that he will add the RS readout upgrades to the next versions.
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With that said,.... and in spite of the technical limitations we have to work with regarding the current RS designations situation, I'm wondering if we can still come close to showing a profit by querying certain race conditions in access that may be "running style sensitive" other then "F" or "E".


Any takers?


Ron

[George]

Ron,
Have had good success with *S and Lone R situations. Rare that either occur.

Agree with most of your above response to Carl, and also agree with Carl that running style as presently designated in our data is not a moneymaker as an query item.

An interesting side note, found in my recent jockey/rs study that many top jockeys or their agents are very selective in what run styles they will accept a ride on. For example, Jerry Bailly rarely gets on a type R or even S and is not very productive when he does. Distance and surface does not seem to matter to him. The vast majority of rides by the "top" jockeys are on E and P horses. Part of the reason is there are many more E,P rides available, but compared ratio's of run style normal distribution with jockey rides and jockeys do seek out the E,P way out of proportion.

[hurrikane]

Interesting topic. Although I have not been able to show a profitable query with just the lone E or F in a race, when added with other value points can be profitable. Had one play with this and a drop in class, nBLF >5. Horse lookes like he quits but with the drop and no pressure had a good hit ratio and profitable. I just didnt' get many bets and I haven't been playing spot plays lately for not sure if it is still profitable.

As for RS...IMO...this is more a personality trait of an animal than anything else. The herd instinct theory. My son has a dog. When you walk with it the stupid animal has to be in front. Doesn't matter about anything else. If it stops and everyone keeps walking it will choke itself pulling on the leash intil it gets back to the front of the crowd. My ex had a dog that like walking in the middle of everyone. Could care less about being out front. When we walked my sons dog with the neighbors 'F' type dog..it was constantly a battle between the two to be out front constantly choking on the leash. I see no reason why these types of traits do not show up in horses (or people for that matter).

My problem is in the way designations are assigned. I have to look at the pps to get my own perspective on who if anyone will be 'pulling on the leash' to get the lead in todays race and how many of those type of dogs are there.

[Carl]

Thoughtful replies about running style.

Both Ron and Hurrikane said they like to scan the PP's to see the RS is "correct".

About what percentage of the time would you agree with the assessment of RS? And, if you did a "blind taste test" of a 100 races, how many times do you think you would assign the same RS as the horse has been given by Cramer?

Later,
Carl

[Carl]

Interestingly, Gordon Pine's Newsletter (free, and available weekly by request on his site http://www.netcapper.com ) covers a lot of the same ground we have here.

Gordon's take:
======================================
Subject: Welcome to Capper's Corner

Capper's Corner
NetCapper's Handicapping Email Newsletter - September 7, 2001
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Understanding Pace: Need-To-Lead
by Gordon Pine

As I said last week, pace involves an interplay of three main factors:

1. The capacity of horses to maintain a fast pace (ability)
2. The desire of certain horses and jockeys to get out in front early
(need-to-lead)
3. The track surface (track pace bias)

Last week I talked about ability using the analogy of a cup of gas. This week,
it’s need-to-lead.

Some horses just want to get out front early. Why do some horses need to lead?
There are probably several reasons.

First, as a handicapper, you only see the thoroughbreds as they race by you on
the track. Think about how these same animals spend 99% of their time – in
small, separate stalls. This is highly unnatural for young athletic herd
animals. When they do get out on the track, they’re often raring to go, full
of frustrated energy. The burst of early speed you see in some horses is a
symptom of that frustration.

Second, there is probably a component of fear in a headlong burst of speed. As
Desmond Morris says in Horsewatching, "No wild horse would ever accelerate to
a full gallop without being in a state of panic-fleeing... Only when the
predator has broken cover and is in hot pursuit will a wild horse break into a
top-speed gallop. So somewhere in a racehorse’s mind there must be a fantasy,
at least, of a pursuing killer... As [the whip] stings the flank or rump it
must be reminiscent of the scratch of a feline claw or the nip of a canine
mouth." So the use of the whip and the slap of the reins at the start of a
race can affect a horse’s front-running behavior.

Third, there is training. Some trainers teach their horses to get out of the
gate quickly. Repetitive gate drills make an impression on most horses that
it’s desirable to get out of the gate promptly and cleanly.

Fourth is breeding. It’s not my area of expertise, but some horses are bred to
sprint, with powerful hindquarters and stocky bodies, while others are born
and bred to go a distance.

Fifth, there’s the jockey. Certain jocks have front-running styles and
tendencies. Despite his liabilities, Pat Valenzuela, for instance, was always
great at getting horses out of the gate quickly. An extra step or two at the
start can make all the difference. Jockeys who have raced quarter horses may
have an edge in this department.

Sixth, I believe that personality affects early speed. The closer you get to
horses, the more you realize that each one has a distinct personality. Some
are clever, some are lazy, some are mean, some seem to have a sense of humor.
Ever take off from a stoplight when you’re driving and realize that the guy in
the lane next to you was competing to be in front? Like humans, some horses
have competitive instincts. It might be anthropomorphizing, but some horses
seem to just want to be in front at all times if possible.

So, need-to-lead is the behavior component of pace. It is separate from
ability. You don’t usually need talent to get out in front. The least talented
horse at a track probably has the capability to get out in front at the first
call of a typical route. A horse who wants to get out in front badly enough
usually can.

The first 1 ½ furlongs or so of a race (see Handicapping Speed by Charles
Carroll) are run anaerobically – in other words, the horse uses up fuel that
doesn’t require oxygen from the blood. The ability to hold the lead is the
ability to cross over to aerobic running and dominate a race. This requires,
among other things, a superior heart and lungs. (It may, in fact, be the size
of a horse’s physical heart as much as its emotional heart that provides
class.)

This is where the interplay between need-to-lead and ability to hold the lead
enters. Handicappers have terms for the different scenarios that this
interaction provides.

"Cheap speed" refers to a horse who wants to get in front but doesn’t have the
ability to stay there. In other words, this horse has a high need-to-lead but
a low ability to hold the lead. This is bad.

A "paceless race" is a race without any high need-to-lead horses. Many races
are relatively paceless. In these situations, pace handicapping becomes
unimportant.

"Lone speed" alludes to a race with only one high need-to-lead horse. Any
horse that can get an easy lead is dangerous. An uncontested early lead is
like a free head start. This is good.

A "pace duel" occurs when two or more horses contest the early lead. You have
multiple horses with high need-to-leads. The possibilities here are many. If
one horse has superior ability, he can survive a duel like this and go on to
win. In general, though, a pace duel is bad for the chances of all the
participants. It drains their cup of gas and leaves them vulnerable to
stalkers and closers. Pace battles may seem obvious in hindsight, but
predicting when they will happen, how they will unfold and what their effect
will be is one of the toughest handicapping tasks.

Since most jockeys are aware of the drawbacks of getting involved in a pace
duel, they can affect the pace scenario. Sometimes this can work to their
advantage if they can get a high need-to-lead horse to relax behind the
frontrunner. Sometimes it can work to their disadvantage, when they have to
"crank down" on a horse and waste valuable energy fighting him. (When you see
a jockey who looks like he’s water skiing, with his feet out in front of him,
or with his behind up in the air and a tight hold on a short rein, you know
the horse is being cranked down.) Horses who are cranked down early in a race
are often not there when the jockey pushes the button later on.

The myriad scenarios that can occur when need-to-lead meets ability to hold
the lead are the meat and potatoes of pace handicapping. Next week, a word
about the third component of pace: track pace bias. NC
===================================
Later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

That is tough Carl...I've never really done a comparison. I just found that the RS designation by itself did little for me. I had to actually look a the PPs..some first fractions, to see if they are real and would hold up. I do seem to see a tendency for horses that are P or S suddenly in thier last race run as an E or F. Leads me to believe it's a form indicator..as long as the pace is valid. No way to test this in the dbs that I have found though.