Ken Massa
6th September 2001, 01:49.52 AM
HTR subscriber DavidK from Iowa did some interesting research on the Pscan and trifecta that he was nice enough to share.
David separated each field of horses into two groups. Lets call them A and B.
The A group = all horses ranked 1-5 with Pscan
The B group = all horses ranked 6+ with Pscan
Here is what he found in terms of ratios
Wins: A horses win races at a 4 to 1 ratio over B horses.
Place: A to B ratio was 3 to 1
Show: A to B ratio was 1 to 1
If you understand this already, that Show stat is an eye opener.
Explanation: The ratios indicate how often the Pscan top 5 is successful. Out of each 5 races, the A group will WIN 4 times and the B group will win once. This indicates a contender win rate of about 80% for the top 5 Pscan which many of us have verified in large samples.
We already know that Pscan is effective at getting winners --- so it is the Show stats that becomes interesting here.
Average field size is about 9. This means the B group is smaller than the A group in overall numbers. It is enlightening then, that a horse from the B group will finish 3rd as often as a member of the A group. Remember the B group horses are usually the dogs in the field as Pscan does an excellent job of finding contenders. Most horses in the B group are longshots.
When they pick up 3rd, and/or 2nd in the tri, the payoffs are going to much better than A-A-A combinations featuring chalk top to bottom.
Does this mean that A-A-B (1st 2nd 3rd) rather than A-A-A is the most common trifecta scenario with Pscan? It would certainly pay more. And what about constructing a ticket for a lucrative A-B-B payoff. I tend to overload my tri tickets with too many A horses. But they are no better than the B's in the bottom hole.
Thank you David K from Des Moines for doing your homework.
David separated each field of horses into two groups. Lets call them A and B.
The A group = all horses ranked 1-5 with Pscan
The B group = all horses ranked 6+ with Pscan
Here is what he found in terms of ratios
Wins: A horses win races at a 4 to 1 ratio over B horses.
Place: A to B ratio was 3 to 1
Show: A to B ratio was 1 to 1
If you understand this already, that Show stat is an eye opener.
Explanation: The ratios indicate how often the Pscan top 5 is successful. Out of each 5 races, the A group will WIN 4 times and the B group will win once. This indicates a contender win rate of about 80% for the top 5 Pscan which many of us have verified in large samples.
We already know that Pscan is effective at getting winners --- so it is the Show stats that becomes interesting here.
Average field size is about 9. This means the B group is smaller than the A group in overall numbers. It is enlightening then, that a horse from the B group will finish 3rd as often as a member of the A group. Remember the B group horses are usually the dogs in the field as Pscan does an excellent job of finding contenders. Most horses in the B group are longshots.
When they pick up 3rd, and/or 2nd in the tri, the payoffs are going to much better than A-A-A combinations featuring chalk top to bottom.
Does this mean that A-A-B (1st 2nd 3rd) rather than A-A-A is the most common trifecta scenario with Pscan? It would certainly pay more. And what about constructing a ticket for a lucrative A-B-B payoff. I tend to overload my tri tickets with too many A horses. But they are no better than the B's in the bottom hole.
Thank you David K from Des Moines for doing your homework.