Gramps
5th September 2001, 02:58.54 PM
I have a small database currently, compared to some of you, about 71,000 lines, which would be a bit short of 9,000 races.
I've finally gotten Access to do what I want it to, and I've been fine tuning what I call the "filter" query. The core of the filter simply takes all the low-percentage factors and filters them out.
The "bet all" query with nothing plugged in, and using paceline 5, is:
Bets: 71,580
Wins: 8,701
Pct : 12.16 %
Avg Mutuel: $ 12.38
ROI: 0.752
Here are the parameters for my filter core:
tTYPE: <> "2yr" And <> "2yf"
nLAY : <=60
nEQC: <>1 And <>2 And <>3
tRS : <>"R" And <>"S"
fFAV : 0
nSPCA: <>1 And <>2 And <>3 And <>4
nSTAR: 1
For those of you who don't use HTR, this basically means to
1) Exclude races for 2 year olds,
2) Eliminate horses who:
a) Haven't raced in over 60 days
b) Are making their first start on Lasix
c) Have the equipment change of "blinkers on" today
d) Have a running style of "Sustained" (late runner) and "Rear" (very late runner)
e) Were favored in their last race
f) First time starters
g) Just broke their maiden in their last race
h) Are moving from a sprint to route
i) Are moving from a route to sprint
3) Include horses who got exactly one "K star" in their rating (K-stars range from zero to five).
All of those are logical to me. My line of thinking, which may not be yours, is this: Two year olds are hard to handicap and are overbet because there are many overmatches that the stables know about but we don't. Horses making their first start on Lasix are usually overbet. Horses adding blinkers are often doing so because they have a problem keeping their mind on their business. Late running horses don't win their fair share of races. Last-race favorites are usually overbet in today's race. Horses changing distances usually are doing so because the trainer is looking for something that works. And the one K Star singles out horses who have a shot, but who aren't so obvious that everybody else sees them (as is often the case with more stars).
For non HTR and or Access users, that would be time-consuming to do on paper, but it takes Access less than 10 seconds to run through my 71,000+ line (about 9,000 races) database once those are plugged into the query.
With those parameters, I came up with the following results, again, using paceline 5:
Bets: 8292
Wins: 1041
Pct: 12.55 %
Avg Mutuel: $ 15.25
ROI: 0.957
And that ROI boggles me. I still have better than one out of nine horses remaining (almost one per race), and little more than a 4% loss by just using common-sense elimination and one rating (the K-star)?
If any of you have time, would you mind running this query through your Access bases and posting your results?
I've finally gotten Access to do what I want it to, and I've been fine tuning what I call the "filter" query. The core of the filter simply takes all the low-percentage factors and filters them out.
The "bet all" query with nothing plugged in, and using paceline 5, is:
Bets: 71,580
Wins: 8,701
Pct : 12.16 %
Avg Mutuel: $ 12.38
ROI: 0.752
Here are the parameters for my filter core:
tTYPE: <> "2yr" And <> "2yf"
nLAY : <=60
nEQC: <>1 And <>2 And <>3
tRS : <>"R" And <>"S"
fFAV : 0
nSPCA: <>1 And <>2 And <>3 And <>4
nSTAR: 1
For those of you who don't use HTR, this basically means to
1) Exclude races for 2 year olds,
2) Eliminate horses who:
a) Haven't raced in over 60 days
b) Are making their first start on Lasix
c) Have the equipment change of "blinkers on" today
d) Have a running style of "Sustained" (late runner) and "Rear" (very late runner)
e) Were favored in their last race
f) First time starters
g) Just broke their maiden in their last race
h) Are moving from a sprint to route
i) Are moving from a route to sprint
3) Include horses who got exactly one "K star" in their rating (K-stars range from zero to five).
All of those are logical to me. My line of thinking, which may not be yours, is this: Two year olds are hard to handicap and are overbet because there are many overmatches that the stables know about but we don't. Horses making their first start on Lasix are usually overbet. Horses adding blinkers are often doing so because they have a problem keeping their mind on their business. Late running horses don't win their fair share of races. Last-race favorites are usually overbet in today's race. Horses changing distances usually are doing so because the trainer is looking for something that works. And the one K Star singles out horses who have a shot, but who aren't so obvious that everybody else sees them (as is often the case with more stars).
For non HTR and or Access users, that would be time-consuming to do on paper, but it takes Access less than 10 seconds to run through my 71,000+ line (about 9,000 races) database once those are plugged into the query.
With those parameters, I came up with the following results, again, using paceline 5:
Bets: 8292
Wins: 1041
Pct: 12.55 %
Avg Mutuel: $ 15.25
ROI: 0.957
And that ROI boggles me. I still have better than one out of nine horses remaining (almost one per race), and little more than a 4% loss by just using common-sense elimination and one rating (the K-star)?
If any of you have time, would you mind running this query through your Access bases and posting your results?