Ken Massa
5th September 2001, 01:38.53 AM
The September newsletter and the upgrade to HTR2001 are now available. Below are some of my thoughts on the expanded data for your handicapping ---->
Cramer Speed Par - located in top right header
This par is a bit different from the HTR Level Par. The HTR par is a measure of class hierarchy while the Cramer par is the expected speed rating that an average field at this track and class level will run. While checking each horse's pp's, notice if an entrant can run to the par regularly. This is particularly useful in maiden races when trying to assess the chances of first time starters. If all the shown horses have run well below par, then a FTS could default to victory. More predictable == horses entered in maiden races that have already achieved a speed figure near or above the Cramer par have a huge advantage over the FTS. First time starters will have to be very talented to beat an experienced runner that has already run to par.
Pedigree Ratings - located in Pedigree Screen or pp screens horse header
I'm really pleased with this rating and hit the first horse I bet with it on Sunday at DMR - a FTS with a superior pedigree rating in race 6, paid $30. This rating separates the sire and dam-sire data into distance/surface categories. Glen gave me a suggestion about the % of sire / dam-sire that I used and then augmented the formula if the horse was a FTS or making the first start on grass. I hope it proves useful in circumstances that require some scrutiny of the breeding such as 2/3yr maidens, grass races for youngsters, or perhaps turf sprints which are real specialty area that few handicappers deal with.
Trainer performance rating and Jockey performance rating
I have tweaked these a bit and now they are a bit more race specific. A jockey that has won with the horse recently will get a boost in the rating. A trainer that has been successful with blinkers or layoffs will get a boost in his number. Don't be confused if the number changes for the same jock or trainer from race to race, they should vary according to the circumstances, but the base number will remain within a 50 point range as we also want an appraisal of overall success. These ratings use win-pla-sho data, not just win%.
Compact Past-performances
This one screen will please many as it saves 70% on paper. Yet I did not want to sacrifice too much of the good data. The main goal was to print 6 horses to a page with as much info as possible. This would mean almost all races would print on two pieces of standard paper. Turns out that cutting the pp lines to 5 maximum and 3 workouts maximum was the answer. The header area remained mostly intact. The trip note had to sliced a bit, but everything else is there.
Advanced PP's
Added the trainer/jockey history to the far right of each pp line. This simple addition is very powerful for the thoughtful handicapper. You are able to see instantly such things as claim history and 'claim backs'. The 'claim back' can be a real eye opener == the term means that a horse was claimed away from a certain trainer some time ago, but then the same trainer re-claimed the horse and got him back. If the claim back occurs at a higher claiming price than
trainer lost him for - that is an extremely positive sign that the trainer thinks the horse is healthy and productive and wants him back in the barn.
Horse exits a "highly rated race'
You can identify races that were run much faster than the expected par for today's race with with the "++" symbol that appears next to the Cramer race speed figure in the new pp's. The "++" races had one or more fractional elements that were run faster than anyone in today's race will likely be able to muster. If an entrant looks bad on form, but has been facing superior runners in recent outings, he will likely find today's field less agressive, the pace easier to negotiate and the character of the other runners less competitive to deal with. Improvement is likely.
Food for thought - I appreciate your comments
Cramer Speed Par - located in top right header
This par is a bit different from the HTR Level Par. The HTR par is a measure of class hierarchy while the Cramer par is the expected speed rating that an average field at this track and class level will run. While checking each horse's pp's, notice if an entrant can run to the par regularly. This is particularly useful in maiden races when trying to assess the chances of first time starters. If all the shown horses have run well below par, then a FTS could default to victory. More predictable == horses entered in maiden races that have already achieved a speed figure near or above the Cramer par have a huge advantage over the FTS. First time starters will have to be very talented to beat an experienced runner that has already run to par.
Pedigree Ratings - located in Pedigree Screen or pp screens horse header
I'm really pleased with this rating and hit the first horse I bet with it on Sunday at DMR - a FTS with a superior pedigree rating in race 6, paid $30. This rating separates the sire and dam-sire data into distance/surface categories. Glen gave me a suggestion about the % of sire / dam-sire that I used and then augmented the formula if the horse was a FTS or making the first start on grass. I hope it proves useful in circumstances that require some scrutiny of the breeding such as 2/3yr maidens, grass races for youngsters, or perhaps turf sprints which are real specialty area that few handicappers deal with.
Trainer performance rating and Jockey performance rating
I have tweaked these a bit and now they are a bit more race specific. A jockey that has won with the horse recently will get a boost in the rating. A trainer that has been successful with blinkers or layoffs will get a boost in his number. Don't be confused if the number changes for the same jock or trainer from race to race, they should vary according to the circumstances, but the base number will remain within a 50 point range as we also want an appraisal of overall success. These ratings use win-pla-sho data, not just win%.
Compact Past-performances
This one screen will please many as it saves 70% on paper. Yet I did not want to sacrifice too much of the good data. The main goal was to print 6 horses to a page with as much info as possible. This would mean almost all races would print on two pieces of standard paper. Turns out that cutting the pp lines to 5 maximum and 3 workouts maximum was the answer. The header area remained mostly intact. The trip note had to sliced a bit, but everything else is there.
Advanced PP's
Added the trainer/jockey history to the far right of each pp line. This simple addition is very powerful for the thoughtful handicapper. You are able to see instantly such things as claim history and 'claim backs'. The 'claim back' can be a real eye opener == the term means that a horse was claimed away from a certain trainer some time ago, but then the same trainer re-claimed the horse and got him back. If the claim back occurs at a higher claiming price than
trainer lost him for - that is an extremely positive sign that the trainer thinks the horse is healthy and productive and wants him back in the barn.
Horse exits a "highly rated race'
You can identify races that were run much faster than the expected par for today's race with with the "++" symbol that appears next to the Cramer race speed figure in the new pp's. The "++" races had one or more fractional elements that were run faster than anyone in today's race will likely be able to muster. If an entrant looks bad on form, but has been facing superior runners in recent outings, he will likely find today's field less agressive, the pace easier to negotiate and the character of the other runners less competitive to deal with. Improvement is likely.
Food for thought - I appreciate your comments