NHC VII at Ballys

[km]

The 7th annual National Handicapping Championship takes place Friday and Saturday (Jan 27-28) at Ballys in Las Vegas.

Four of our regular bbs users are involved -->

Tommy Castillo
Mike Mayo
Mel Moser
Alan Noring

Ruby Castillo (Tommy's wife) is also qualified, so he really has two entries!

Congrats for qualifying, but these guys are all hardened tournament players and the novelty of a free trip to Vegas has long ago worn off -- so give em hell men and we are pulling for you to score big in the handicapper's version of the Super Bowl.

There are two other HTR subscribers involved, but I don't have permission from them to splash their names at this time.

Click the link below for all the information on DRF. The mandatory races are listed and be sure to read the excellent articles from writer Dave Tuley who is on the scene. (thanks to Dave for plugging HTR in his Orleans recap the other day)

http://www.drf.com/nhc/2005/nhc.html

There may be live updates on TVG and periodic scoring updates on the DRF website above during the tourney. Hope to hear from our players on this thread also with any news, comments or recaps after the contest.

[km]

List of mandatory races to be used in the NHC on Friday.

FRIDAY, JAN. 27
:: Gulfstream - Race 2
:: Laurel - Race 5
:: Aqueduct - Race 7
:: Gulfstream - Race 8
:: Oaklawn - Race 5
:: Santa Anita - Race 3
:: Oaklawn - Race 9
:: Bay Meadows - Race 7

[tommyc]

Thanks for the support.....I promise to post some kind of an update each night but keep in mind that it may not be too coherant, especally if I'm not doing well....tequila and bourbon makes for murky faculties ! LOL

It is a privlege to represent HTR, we'll be firin'................

[AlanLN]

Same here.......except for the part about tequila and bourbon.

:D

[Donnie]

LOL...when I first read that Tommy I thought you said "...will be fryin'..."

So whats new??

Go get 'em guys!!
Best of luck!!

[Cliff]

Hey guys/gals,

Are there any other tracks involved besides those in the obvious mandatories? Seems I saw it somewhere (maybe DRF) but can't find the official list now.

Thx

[AlanLN]

Tommy is going post an update on today's action but here is my two cents worth and here is a link to DRF's web site news:http://www.drf.com/news/article/71850.html

Mel Moser, whom I haven't met yet, is in 7th place and I don't recall his point total (seems like maybe I saw 112?). Tommy is in about 36th with about 77 points. For Ken's benefit, those are the "first page" HTR guys. Yours truly is in 50th with 69 points (just off the "first page"). Not sure about Mike Mayo.

The $92 horse in the mandatory SA 3rd race was the key for a few leaders. I heard the
1st and 3rd place guys are on the same "team" (GSRN) and as a team they have around 350 points, about 100 points more than the 2nd place "team".

I made a couple of mistakes. The 6th race at GP I thought I saw Zito's horse at 6-1 and dismissed him as too cheap for an optional pick. He won and payed 29.60/10.00. In the mandatory 5th @ LRL I got off the 9, who payed 8.20/5.00. Had a 14-1 take the lead very briefly 4 jumps before the wire only to run 4th by a head or so.
Don't ask me how I did it, but I went zero for 7 on the optional plays. Had 3 winners
(9.40, 10.60,13.40) and two 2nds (4.20,12.80)in the 8 mandatory races (and even had a jockey fall in one of the these races).

They have increased the day money for Saturday, so hopefuly we wil all be shooting for that.

Cliff
Just AQU, BM, LRL, GP, OP, SA are available for play.

[EE26]

this link was updating the standing after each of the mandatory races today
http://drf.com/nhc/2005/nhc.html

[tommyc]

Alan posted most of the facts. Leader has $141 and can still be had. Moser is in great position with $123 and we'll be pulling for him....Mayo had a really rough day and I just finished having cocktails with him and some other folks....Mayo left to look for a window to jump out of.

Tomorrow is another day and we'll stay after 'em................

[Sheets Guy]

Our fearless leader Mel has accomplished what we hope to accomplish on day 1, getting to within $14 of the lead. The only real mistake we had was with the SA cap horse. Gupta and I commented to each other 10 minutes before the race that we both considered giving Mel Add Heat as our selection. That sire is an automatic first grass play for me, and OPM pointed out he had an 823 PED rating. Unfortunately neither of us included him in our selection logs and Mel ended up on the other pedigree play we liked that finished 4th. Mel made some great last minute audibles, and we were fortunate to have logged almost all the $20+ horses that won yesterday.

Maybe we're due for some good karma. A year ago this weekend OPM was our point man at the Orleans where we would have won the tournament had either Marwood (GP10th) 15-1 or Zakocity (GP11th) 25-1 won their respective photos. Best of luck today to all the HTR guys. Our subscribers might not be might in number but we have one helluva an I.V. based upon our finish positions in these top tournaments!

[km]

3:45pm ET Saturday

All of a sudden it's getting wild and wooley, which often happens on Saturdays in these contests. I hope someone from HTR threw in the $80 winner at SA - lone "E", FR1=1 play, but that would have been a stab considering the players have just 7 bullets avaiilable for the day and it was a short field, but maybe Mayo winged it, he had nothing to lose.

Tony "TJ" Taylor ---- is also an HTR subscriber involved in the NHC - good luck to him today.

Thanks Alan and Tommy for chiming in here and kudos to Ian 'sheet guy' for the description with Mel entry - please follow up with a day-2 summary guys.

[dehere]

I'm sure folks have noticed but Mel Moser is in second as of 1pm PST - end of mandatory race 2. Nice move.

[Sheets Guy]

We're $20 behind with 2 optional plays left and the mandatory plays. This race at SA (5th) is a key for us. Mel has done another great job managing the ticket. We need a little luck as we're going to be playing shots in the SA 5th and GP 9th. We're keeping our fingers crossed...


Sheets Guy

[dehere]

That's interesting - taking a stand against Jerry in his last race. You don't think the field will just let Bailey have this one?

[jbshoulda]

I don't think 12 other owners, trainers, and jockeys are going to give up $300,000 1st place money so Jerry can go out with a win. He'll have to earn it. That's why going against him in the tournament is a good move as prices will be better as the public over bets Jerry.

[dehere]

Nice effort by Bailey I suppose - I sure hope Mel had Miesque's Approval - that would be a nice nice move.

[timh]

I saw earlier that Steve Wolfson Sr was in contention. Wonder if he had the family trained Miesques Approval.

[MVM]

I may be wrong, but with Miesque's Approvals cap payout, I am guessing that a Wolfson may be making an appearance in the top 5 after the race.

[km]

Ian - sheet guy - we are on pins and needles - did you guys play the $99 winner at GP ?

It would be too sinister if the Wolfsons win this contest because of that horse.

[MVM]

Looks like the same leader...209.10
Mel in 8th 39.10 out of it
No Wolfson though

[Sheets Guy]

Long story short, no.

He was on our log but we rated him a 2 on a 1-3 scale with 3 being the best, and rated Stormy Roman a 2.5. I thought MA had a classic recovery pattern off the sheets but wasn't sure how fast he could run now given that his best #'s were 15 months ago for Mott. Stormy Roman on the other hand had run his top a couple of times in the last 6 months. I thought they looked about equal on HTR. The final call is ultimately Mel's to make but if it were my decision I would have played Stormy Roman too. The only saving grace is I cashed a win bet and exacta bet that was better than all but the top few spots in the contest. A year to the day when we just missed at the Orleans. Still snakebit...

[Sheets Guy]

P.S. Wolfson was precluded from playing his kid's horse.

[MVM]

48.60 on the last race of the contest and it was a mandatory.
Gonna be interesting....with Mullins training I've got to think at least 2 or 3 in the top 15 had the horse...hope it was someone we know. Maybe the $ helped.

[jbshoulda]

Ron Rippey $237.20 $250,000
2) Mark Lowe $228.60 $100,000
3) Mel Moser $227.60 $50,000
4) Louis Licata $219.70 $25,000
5) Cheryl Britt $219.30 $15,000
6) Tom Zipp $213.30 $6,000
7) Paul Yavorski $213.00 $6,000
8) Bob Bandzwolek $209.90 $6,000
9) Richard Murray $204.00 $6,000
10) Steve Valiant $203.70 $6,000
11) Steve Wolfson, Sr. $203.00 $2,500
12) William Gonsoulin $200.00 $2,500
13) William Haliziw $199.40 $2,500
14) John Wilhelm $197.80 $2,500
15) William Downes $197.40 $2,500
16) Kevin Matties $190.90 $2,500
17) John Pappalardo $190.60 $2,500
18) Kenneth Paszkiewicz $189.80 $2,500
19) Arnold Paul $189.20 $2,500
20) John Livesay $187.50 $2,500




DAY 1 WINNERS
NAME TOTAL PRIZE
1) Mark Lowe - Dead Heat $141.40 $4,000
1) Leonard Wells - Dead Heat $141.40 $4,000
3) Richard Murray $137.40 $2,000

DAY 2 WINNERS
NAME TOTAL PRIZE

1) Paul Yavorski $201.50 $10,000
2) Louis Licata $177.10 $6,000
3) William Haliziw $168.20 $4,000

[MVM]

Mel runs 3rd...very cool..$9.60 behind the winner.

[Sheets Guy]

Mel bet the Mullins horse in the last race. We liked her from the get-go but Mel was afraid she wasn't going to be a price and Gupta and I weren't sure who he played until long after the race was over. Unfortunately, a couple of people ahead of us had her too and he ended up finishing 3rd, $10 behind the winner.

I would like to be the first to congratulate Mel on a terrific job. I'm proud to be associated with such a good handicapper and a better friend.

[OPM]

Congratulations Uncle Mall, almost brought home the whole enchalada!!! The Eclipse is within sight.
Also, I want to congratulate Ken Massa and HTR, we are getting closer and will bring home the bacon this year. HTR gives you such an advantage when screening for races, it's unbelievable. At this point I am very happy with the 3rd and a photo here or there and it would have been the enchalada!!!

[Donnie]

Nice job Mel and crew!! Fantastic showing!!

[km]

Pop the champagne corks for Mel Moser et al --- wow!!!

Outstanding - what an exciting tournament for Mel and Co. and 50k for the effort - huge!

We are proud of you guys - please tell us the whole story, who are all the members of your team, etc etc when you come down from cloud nine!

Thanks OPM for the kind compliment. With Ronnie last week and Mel this week, HTR is smelling like a rose. One of us will get #1 real soon.

(Mel, Ian or Gupta, could you please email me a list of the horses you hit in the tournament to put in the newsletter - thank you)

[njcurveball]

Congratulations Mel!!!!

The DRF trumpets that nearly 100,000 racing fans tried to have a chance to get to Vegas and you beat out the rare less than 1% of that!

It is truly amazing how many top finishers in contests come from this program!

Mel you have a lot to be proud of and Ken you do as well!!!

way to go!
Jim

[AlanLN]

Congrats to Mel Moser for the great finish. The whole race book was going crazy during the last mandatory SA 10th race (even Ruby was jumping up and down cheering as her and Tommy had the winner), as that $36 horse shook up the leader board. Tommy was the best of the rest of the HTR folks I think. Tommy made a late rally to just miss the money, 23rd with 170.40 points (187.50 was 20th). Mike Mayo finished 59th with 122. I was 65th with 118.50. Ruby was 94th with ? points.

I actually started the day well. My first 2 optional plays ran 1st (18.80) and a 2nd
(12.60) @ 19-1, which moved me up to 30th with 4 mandatory and 4 optional plays left at 2:00pm. They were posting the scores every hour, today they were updated at 11:15,
12:00, 1:00, 2:00, and 3:00. Just could not find a winner after 2:00pm. Only a couple of short price 2nds in the mandatorys. Had 2 horses at about 20-1 give me a brief thrill only to run a non threatening 4th later in the afternoon. With the last couple of optional plays and that last mandatory race I went for the cap horse, 20-1 plus, that I had yet to hit that I needed to have a chance for some money and missed on those. I looked over and considered the cap winners in the GP 9th and SA 1st races the night before, but with only 7 bullets a day to fire I just looked else where.

I thought it amazing that the team that had a huge first day (360+ points) and led didn't cash after it was all said and done.

One final note. With all the video footage the camera crew took of Tommy and Ruby(seemed like they were squeezing by my seat to get a shot of him every 30 minutes or so) he should get some time on the ESPN coverage airing in Feb. Must of been his smiling face!
:D :D

[dehere]

Congrats to Mel - and Ronnie. What a great contest season for HTR. Maybe soon we'll get Andy Beyer to at least mention HTR when he writes another article about computers and horseracing.

[Sheets Guy]

"Maybe soon we'll get Andy Beyer to at least mention HTR when he writes another article about computers and horseracing."

Let's hope not. I'd rather have the ROI than the publicity.

[Gambler]

Congrads to all.

[Mark]

Two big scores in as many weeks, a remarkable achievement for Ronnie, Mel and HTR.

I've learned more in nine months here than the nine years previous, thanks in no small part to the individuals so willing to share.

Congratulations!

[Cliff]

Very nice Mel!

[Mayo]

Nice job Mel.

This NTRA contest is getting bigger and better each year. Having been in attendance the last 3 years, I can honestly say this thing is really improving and the interest is really growing. Not to mention the competition is getting unbelievable.

The last race was about as exciting a finish as you could have in a contest with 250 grand on the line. Cheryl Britt ( a complete tourney rookie. She qualified at Turf Paradise and had to win a one race playoff for the last spot) who led most of the day was in the lead by about $10 or so going in to the last race. As they were going in the gate, Espn announced the selections of the top 3 places at that point. None of the 3 had the same horse. The had done a calculation in the back room and detemined that any one of them would win the contest if their horse won the race. If the favorite won ( which none of them had) then Cheryl Britt would be the winner. At the top of stretch the favorite had a 3 length lead but the 4 horse was closing fast. The 2 dug in and almost held him off but the 4 got up in the last two jumps. THE WHOLE ROOM WAS GOING NUTS AND ESPN WAS FILMING IT ALL. It was truly a great finish. I visited with Cheryl and her fiance about an hour after the contest and offered condolences. She truly was pleased with her performance and was very gracious in defeat. SHE IS A CLASSY LADY.

The NTRA has announced that they plan to raise the purse money again next year and hope to get the total pot to 1 million. They all but guaranteed that it would be done by Jan 2008.

PROGRAM NOTE: ESPN IS GOING TO TELEVISE THE EVENT ON SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 19TH AT 6:00 P.M. EASTERN. Speaking of ESPN, the crew this year did a fantastic job of covering this event. They brought in a new producer and they had Dave the Maven and Randy Moss doing all of the interviews. The crew last year was terrible, in that they knew nothing about horse racing and were interviewing us like we were a football game or something. I heard many complaints from all of the leaders last year about how intrusive they were during the day as each player tried to study between races. The show last year was also very poorly done as far as editing. Most people as they watched the program had no idea what was going on. I was at the event, and I must admit the telecast was hard to follow. They have said this year's production should be much better.

NOW IT IS TIME TO START ALL OVER AGAIN FOR NEXT YEAR. OFF TO THE TURFVIVOR.

MAYO

[Mall]

To everyone for the encouragement & kind words, but special thanks to the other htr members of the team who worked so hard to help & support me. Very nice also for Alan & Tommy/Ruby to introduce themselves & psyche me up coming down the stretch. I'll send the list in a day or two, Ken, since I'll be sleeping at least that long after a very interesting Sat night. That saying they have about things staying in Vegas is true, isn't it?

[km]

LOL! - You earned it Mel - a long spell of sensory deprivation - we'll all appreciate the summary to show to the group in the Feb newsletter.

BTW: Anyone -- is there is a link to the entire standings for the NHC, all 225 player points and rankings. I want to get an accurate list of the HTR players as well as find out what happened to our other tournament pals and friends that competed.

FYI: player bios
http://www.drf.com/nhc/2005/2005nhc_bios.pdf
Thank you Tommy for the special comments about HTR and me in your bio on the DRFwebsite. The bios are more difficult to browse this year because they are not in player alphabetical order like before, instead they created a PDF with the name of the track or tournament location and then listing qualifiying finishers, so you have to hunt and scroll to find individual people, but an interesting read with photos too.

[OPM]

Mike and others:
In terms of raising the purse for the NHC, it's very simple in my opinion. There are about 100,000 people in the qualifying tournaments. Every one of these contestants would pay a $5 fee that would go towards the final purse and the qualifying tourneys and NTRA will put up the other half million. I would pay $5 and sure most everyone else would.

[Donnie]

KM-
Do a search...for Tommy....he pops right up!

[Donnie]

Occupation: Professional Horseplayer

Not too many of those scattered about the qualifiers!

[km]

bada bing for donnie, and....
search string *.* to locate all the blowhards in there :D

[hurrikane]

what a great showing guys! congrats to all.

Time to lock and load for this year. See you all at the Orleans

[Mayo]

I originally said ESPN will broadcast the NTRA on Feb. 19

It will actually be on ESPN2.

Mayo

[tuleythetout]

Here ya go, Ken:

HTRs
3. Mel Moser 227.60
23. Tommy Castillo 170.40
60. Mike Mayo 122.20
66. Alan Noring 118.50
94. Ruby Castillo 98.70

Others of interest:
3. Ross Gallo 139.30
44. Robert Bertolucci 138.30
141. Former champ Kent Meyer 72.60
160. Marcus Hurd(formerly of MGM Grand race book when they hosted NHC) 63.40
173. Joe Hinson 58.20
219. J. Randy Gallo 20.60


I like ya, but I'm not typing up the whole freakin' list...let me know who else you wanna know about.

[km]

Thanks Dave! That's just about everyone I wanted to know.

One more please: Tony TJ Taylor

Glad you have joined our bbs.

(Dave Tuley, writes the excellent Vegas and Sports columns for the DRF)

[tuleythetout]

107 Tony TJ Taylor 92.10

How do I shrink my avatar to about half the size? I tried downloading a running horse gif from my hard drive, but got an error message that "animated" avatars couldn't be downloaded, which is obviously not the case as there are several in this thread -- mine seems to be a less-detailed one than those, too, so doubt it's a size issue.

[Rick]

I'll downsize it for you.

[Donnie]

I think you may have the wrong number on Gallo......You have both Mel and Ross as 3rd....maybe 43?? Welcome aboard, Dave!

[tomcat]

Congratlutions Mel !!!

[tuleythetout]

Thanks, Ricks...much less scary for everyone!

Donnie...yep, my bad...Ross was 43rd....

[km]

Complete final standings at this link

http://www.drf.com/nhc/7/7_standings.html

Median score for the contest = about $87

30 contest plays x $2WP = $120 wagered, so $120 would be the expected random return and median (w/o takeout) but players are not picking normally in this contest, they are looking for fat prices under pressure and that lowers the average score because most do not succeed.

[km]

Couple of angles on the final day Saturday that were brought to mind after reading Mel's insights at the tourney that will appear in the newsletter this month =

Final SA race winner Alluring Bel was critical pick for all the top NHC prize winners. A check of the trainer stats shows that Mullins was just 1 for 28 in the last 365-days with his FTS's! Better lucky than (stat) smart - but Mullins overall record with 3yr, Mcl, and SA dirt sprints is excellent. The pedigree and FT were good too and the horse had a strong Wk number and Mel mentions other reasons for liking the horse.

While Wolfson Sr. was not allowed to bet his brother's horse in the 9th at GP - it won and paid a whopping $99 - it looks like the other members of his winning HOU "team" prize did use the bomb and together they split the $15,000. So did Wolfson collect that money via the backdoor? Perhaps with a wink and smile.

[km]

Newspaper story about Mel and the tournament - includes photo.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060201/SPORTS08/60201009/1037

[Donnie]

Nice Job Mel! 56 yr old geezer, tho??? Pulease! :D

[Mall]

I met John Livesay, identified in the article as the 20th place finisher, Sat morning when things weren't going particularly well for him, just before he decided to simply put in all of his remaining plays & go upstairs & play blackjack. Not something I would necessarily recommend, but John's an elderly, disabled guy & the set up is not exactly comfortable for someone in his circumstances, so I understood where he was coming from. Of course, as soon as he left his horses started winning at long odds, & at one point he was actually in third place overall. As a result, the tv crews kept coming by his seat asking everyone in the vicinity if they had any idea who or where he was, until they eventually gave up & did a piece filming his empty chair. When I talked to John shortly before the Awards Dinner, he had no idea any of this had happened, & was probably the only one there who was truly curious about where he ended up in the standings.

Like John, I was curious about what the reporter would write, given that she called when I was walking/runnning the dog, a time when, as OPM will tell you, my focus is questionable at best. It was near the end of the walk that she told me, when I suggested that she call sometime in the afternoon so we could do the interview, that she had already completed the interview. At first I thought the whole thing was pretty funny. Then I started thinking that it wouldn't take the Gallo bros very long to figure out that it was their casino I was making fun of, though km tells me they have a pretty good sense of humor & won't mind the publicity.

btw, contrary to popular belief, you don't have to be old to be a geezer, the actual definition of which is an eccentric, usually a man, sometimes a woman. I'd probably have to plead at least somewhat guilty to that charge, although a lot of the bizarre & interesting characters I've met at these contests make me feel decidedly mainstream. imo, meeting & learning their "stories" is a big part of the fun of going.

[tuleythetout]

Mel, congrats on your finish and the article...

I'm sure the Gallos got a kick of that mention (lawn mower LOL!!!)...as did Stampede...

I was in the control center (the glass-enclosed room) at Bally's and following the proceedings. It was funny when John Livesay was climbing the standings...the ESPN crew was going nuts...the media isn't supposed to be cheering for anyone, but believe me, they were hoping anyone would win by Livesay because they had NO footage on him...they were joking that if he won they would have to call everyone back to the racebook at midnight to shoot some scenes :)

And I was there when they were shooting his empty seat...can't wait to see how that comes out on the show or if it'll end up on the cutting room floor since he faded. Poker TV doesn't have that problem.

Mel...I am curious about Miesque's Approval...I got a call right after the race from a friend at Gulfstream who said he thought you played that horse and that I should check the leaderboard to see if you were in contention...care to comment (and, yes, this is an interview :)

[Mall]

Dave: I always enjoy your articles, & I especially enjoyed the WS one last yr re my buddy/partner OPM. If I'd had known you were there, I would have introduced myself & bought you at least one drink. I'm not sure this will make sense, especially considering some of the things I've said here, but one of the guys who I'm guessing was with the guy who called you from GP had the same opinion about Miesque's Approval as I did, namely that it was one of those rare if not unique situations where a 45-1 shot made more sense to bet, (which all of the guys at GP did), than to use in a contest. I thought Stormy Roman(who they bet also) was one of the two best cap plays of the day, & then never saw the horse at any point in the race, although someone told me he ended up finishing 4th. MA was on our log, & I gave him the longest of looks, but eventually decided to go with my original plan, even after learning that the trainer's father was a contestant. I'll be interested to hear your take on that subject after you read the newsletter, especially given The Maven's wrap up article pointing out that in SA10 there was much more on the line for the contestants than there was for the owner & trainer, which brought back a vague recollection of one of Mullin's pals hitting a big pk6 in Calif by singling a longshot he trained. Might be a situation where it would make sense to do things a little differently than they usually do in racing, i.e., solve the potential problem before there's another scandal.

[tuleythetout]

Thanks, Mel...I'll be at the Orleans...and Gold Coast...and at Orleans and Bally's next January, so plenty of opportunities.

I hear what you're saying...and obviously the $42 cap makes it a little harder to pull the trigger on a 45-1 shot.

Personally, I don't agree with the rule that prohibited Wolfson from playing Miesque's Approval (this is my opinion and not that of DRF, NTRA or anyone else). I see nothing wrong with anyone picking their own horse, or a relative's horse in the case of Wolfson, in a tournament (or in the pick6 as with the Mullin story). To the victor go the spoils, right? Owners, trainers and others in a stable have always bet on their horse, and as a rule I'd love to book all their action. Don't think they have an edge on a day-to-day basis (or they'd all be rich) and no significant edge in a handicapping tournament. Now, if, say, Wolfson bet against his family's horse and won and there was scandal about the race being thrown, that's where it would be wrong.

Congrats again.