EV1 with rESP1 query

[Bernie]

Earlier this year someone posted some promising results using only EV1 with rESP1. This was from a query on only 2 months of data. I'm curious how this 2 factor model has done on a longer term basis. Could one of the fortunate persons with a one or two year database post some results? Thanks.

[Carl]

T'was I that posted it Bernie.

Here is same for 53,000 races, all tracks June 30 2000 to July 1 2001.

Still looks promising. Run in Pl 1.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report rEV1 "1", rESP "1" all tracks all races
July 1 2000-June 30th 2001.
Total Bets 22790
Total Amount Bet 45580.00
Wins 5198
Pct. 22.81%
Amount Won 43730.30
Profit/Loss -1849.70
Pct Profit Loss -4.06%
Avg. Payout 8.41

Later,
Carl

[Carl]

Got a nice e-mail from a new user asking if I could help make this ev1-esp1 more DMR specific.

For some reason I said "sure" (well it was a nice and flattering e-mail).

Old time posters here will be laughing because they know I don't know how to make a play track specific (which is why they suspect I go off yapping all the time "it can't be done"). What I ended up doing mostly (again) is illustrating the dangers inherit in filtering down, especially with small samples.

Anyway, here was my "kick at the cat".

1) All DMR this year for Ev1-esp1. Looked pretty "average".
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
DMR esp1 ev1
Total Bets 168
Total Amount Bet 336.00
Wins 30
Pct. 17.86%
Amount Won 315.20
Profit/Loss -20.80
Pct Profit Loss -6.19%
Avg. Payout 10.51

2) I thought I would go next to distance, since that's normally the best place for early speed. And this was a good guess, since using distance races only made the play show a profit at DMR.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
DMR ev1 esp1 dist>8
Total Bets 75
Total Amount Bet 150.00
Wins 11
Pct. 14.67%
Amount Won 169.00
Profit/Loss 19.00
Pct Profit Loss 12.67%
Avg. Payout 15.36

3) So, feeling pretty good about my genius so far, thought I would cap it off with a little touch of "nESD >=6" to throw this play up into the "highly profitable" catagory.

Opps. This is what I got.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
DMR ev1 esp1 nesd>=6 dist>8
Total Bets 52
Total Amount Bet 104.00
Wins 7
Pct. 13.46%
Amount Won 76.80
Profit/Loss -27.20
Pct Profit Loss -26.15%
Avg. Payout 10.97

4) And the "other half", "nESD<6", of course looks GREAT at DMR.

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
DMR ev1-esp1 dist>8 nesd<6
Total Bets 23
Total Amount Bet 46.00
Wins 4
Pct. 17.39%
Amount Won 92.20
Profit/Loss 46.20
Pct Profit Loss 100.43%
Avg. Payout 23.05

So, does this mean that I think that distance races with ev1-esp1 horses with a <6 nESD advantage are good bets at DMR? Well, I don't mind giving a definitive answer, so here it is:
---------------------------- WELL, MAYBE. ---------------------------------

Anybody else have any thoughts on what worked well at DMR this meet? Don't think I am too much of a help, think I done used one too many filters (again).

later,
Carl