Modeling Question

[Gambler844]

What is the advantage of access modeling over modeling I can do in HTR?
Also is there any minimum number of RAM or HARD DRIVE I need. Just trying to find out if my computer is large enough to handle all those files and what I can do with those files once I have them. Thanks for any help.

[Carl]

One advantage of access I know of over the modeler is that you can check the value of combinations of factors on access. And you can't on the modeler.

For example, say both MLO "1" and EV "1" both had a win percentage of 25% and an ROI of $1.00 at AQU.

And you then wanted to know what happens when these two factors are combined at AQU, i.e. a horse is ranked "1" in both.

Access could tell you, the modeler couldn't.

later,
Carl

[Glen]

Modeler tells you this:
09-02-01 SAR-Win Records: 025 PL: 1 Avg Par: 104 Avg Fld: 8.2

Factor Rnk1 Top2 Top3 Top4 Top5 Top6 LONGSHT ROI-1 ROI-2 ROI-3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLO 40% 52% 68% 72% 84% 84% 00/06 $0.84 $0.44 $0.90
HTR 36% 52% 64% 64% 80% 88% 00/06 $0.96 $0.38 $0.64
(K) 48% 56% 68% 68% 80% 88% 00/06 $1.26 $0.32 $1.16
P-Scan 44% 52% 64% 68% 72% 88% 00/06 $1.16 $0.22 $1.38
POW 40% 52% 64% 68% 72% 80% 00/06 $1.08 $0.38 $0.52
CLA 48% 56% 64% 68% 76% 84% 01/06 $2.52 $0.20 $0.90
PER 32% 48% 64% 68% 80% 80% 00/06 $0.98 $0.34 $0.68
PROB% 40% 60% 64% 64% 76% 84% 00/06 $0.92 $0.74 $0.32
EFF 20% 52% 64% 84% 88% 88% 02/06 $0.96 $3.30 $0.92
JKY 24% 36% 44% 52% 68% 80% 00/06 $0.74 $0.36 $0.52
TRN 08% 40% 48% 64% 76% 76% 02/06 $0.16 $2.28 $0.70
ACL 36% 44% 48% 52% 64% 84% 02/06 $2.62 $0.50 $0.12

VEL 28% 44% 64% 68% 76% 84% 00/06 $0.78 $0.46 $0.74
Fr1-Ev 08% 24% 40% 44% 52% 68% 00/06 $0.14 $0.64 $0.64
Fr2 20% 28% 40% 60% 72% 88% 01/06 $1.64 $0.28 $0.96
Fr3 16% 44% 56% 72% 76% 88% 02/06 $0.38 $2.46 $0.20
A/P 32% 44% 64% 72% 80% 80% 00/06 $0.98 $0.26 $0.76
A/P 32% 44% 64% 72% 80% 80% 00/06 $0.98 $0.26 $0.76 _
E/P 28% 40% 48% 64% 64% 72% 01/06 $1.50 $0.64 $0.12 _
S/P 24% 48% 56% 64% 80% 80% 00/06 $0.50 $0.84 $1.22 _
F/X 20% 40% 60% 72% 76% 88% 00/06 $0.62 $0.72 $0.52 _
L/P-Lv 28% 40% 64% 72% 76% 84% 01/06 $0.80 $1.38 $2.12 _
(*) 28% 02/06 $2.78 _
_
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
RS Starters Won-Pla-Sho Win% Impact $ROI ITM% %Race Winners _
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- _
F 0013 003 002 002 23 1.89 4.54 54 12 _
E 0060 010 009 006 17 1.37 0.88 42 40 _
P 0073 008 009 012 11 0.90 0.57 40 32 _
S 0055 004 004 005 07 0.60 1.18 24 16 _
R 0004 000 001 000 00 0.00 0.00 25 00 _
_
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- _
p-Scan differential Win% AccumWin% Pla% Sho% Longshots 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- _
0.00 to -0.99 52 52 40 28 00 _
-1.00 to -1.99 16 68 12 12 02 _
-2.00 to -2.99 12 80 20 12 01 _
-3.00 to -3.99 04 84 16 16 00 _
-4.00 to -4.99 08 92 08 12 01 _
-5.00 to -9.99 08 100 04 20 02 _
_




Access tells you any combination of the following:
http://www.homebased2.com/km/dnl/htr4msa.txt

[Rick]

How much hard disk space is enough? I can remember when I thought 20 mb was plenty.

It depends on what else you are using your computer for. For just HTR, Access and all the files, if you have less than 5 gb its going to catch up with you unless you store old stuff on cds.

I have a 25 gb hard drive that I thought was getting a little small. I only had about 6 gb of space left. Of course I do a lot more than htr.

Office Max has a rebate on 20 GB Maxtor 7200 rpm hard drives this week. $79.99 after $20 rebate. That should be more than enough for most people for a couple of years. Famous last words. I picked up one today. Planning on making it the primary hd and running all the htr/access stuff on it. Will keep the other hard drive for all the other stuff that doesn't need the additional speed.

Memory is pretty cheap these days. If you don't have at least 128 mb you should upgrade unless you are happy with what you have.

Also when you think things are running too slow for your taste you might need to upgrade. I am about ready for DSL or cable because I know 56K is too slow. Right now I can't even connect at 28k half the time. Dont' know if its my computer or those damn phone lines.

[Glen]

Yeah, tell me about it Rick. I feel like it is 1995 again. New can not connect at anything faster than 26K at the new residence.

[Victor]

What interests me is what can Access do to suggest good combinations of factors to test? Is it simply up to me to discover these through trial and error? I did the trial and error method with an old BRIS program years ago called Plus 5.

[George]

Victor,
Am a big believer in using the modeler to find one or two factors that have been historically "hot" for a given track and type of race. I then use the DB to find out what other factors work well with them.

Carl has mentioned many times his use of "ugly" factors to go with the hot factor. He is correct that this usually brings up ROI on the hot factor while normally reducing win percentage. I also like to crosscheck the hot factor with "pretty" factors which willl sometimes raise both ROI and win percent.

Hope that helps.