BC files and Robot

[ggpagels]

Any idea why Robot can't run HTR Breeders Cup Files previous to 2003? They display correctly with results and charts on the HTR2 screens. :confused:

[km]

Robot can only handle 365-day at a time because of the file name overlap.

[ggpagels]

Thanks, KM but I don't follow you. Robot runs 2004 and 2003 BC day files but not 2002,2001,2000 or 1999. Not a biggy-maybe something to think about after this week is over.

[km]

You're a smart cookie Jerry. You are correct, i checked my Visual Basic code....

When the robot is in the default "all races" mode it will search back 999 days maximum.

Why 999 ? The robot uses a 3 digit days back maximum in its processing loop.

SOLUTION: temporarily set the calendar year in Windows to 2001 and you'll fool the robot into processing all the way back to 1999. Be sure to change it back after you finish!

I mentioned the "file overlap" protection in the previous post because it is prudent to not use more than 365 days of HTR files in the same folder because they can get mixed up as the year is not part of the physical file name. If there was a 10 race card last year, and you mixed it in with a 9 race card this year, wierd things can happen when HTR2 processes the initial list of tracks and dates.

But the robot and HTR2 both process the year correctly from the internal race date as far as handicapping.

[km]

The "Bob Stark" play is a winner. Bet every horse in every race on BrCup day since 1999 returns +7%.

Running the robot back to 1999 on the Breeder Cup cards nets 65 races in the sample. Some races were not Br Cup events, but extra stakes races to fill in the card.

"Play All" horses gets a 1.07 ROI.

This is why the Breeder Cup is such a great betting day and favorites are totally vulnerable in every event. The longest shot on the board has won the Classic 3 times.

[ggpagels]

Thanks, KM. Setting the date back worked great and the robot runs all the old BC cards, but my reminder program says I have to buy my wife 5 anniversery and 5 birthday gifts again. Just kidding!! :D

[Victor]

The longshot bias in the Breeders' Cup may not apply at Belmont.

Just my two cents.

I would not reccomend playing every horse this year, but I could be wrong!

[tbrown]

On the upside, it sure cuts down you're handicapping time investment! :eek:

[Rick]

BREEDERS CUP RACES ONLY 1999-2004
I removed the non-Br Cup races from the data in those cards.

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM Long High I.V.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 00549 00048 09% 17% 26% 1.16 0.99 0.91 $26.6 44 $114 1.03

K=1 00048 00011 23% 29% 33% 0.98 0.69 0.62 $08.6 09 $16 2.62
K=2 00048 00006 13% 27% 38% 0.45 0.80 0.87 $07.2 00 $9 1.43
K=3 00048 00008 17% 31% 46% 0.94 1.18 1.23 $11.2 13 $26 1.91
K=4 00048 00004 08% 25% 40% 0.98 1.00 1.16 $23.6 50 $58 0.95
K=5 00048 00002 04% 15% 29% 0.43 0.74 0.94 $20.8 10 $21 0.48
K=6 00048 00004 08% 19% 25% 1.73 1.18 0.96 $41.5 75 $83 0.95
K=7 00050 00005 10% 14% 26% 2.03 1.34 1.12 $40.6 80 $59 1.15
K=8 00045 00003 07% 13% 20% 2.35 1.06 0.89 $70.4 10 $114 0.77
K=9 00166 00005 03% 08% 13% 1.00 0.98 0.77 $66.3 10 $96 0.38

K110+ 00019 00004 21% 37% 37% 0.64 0.69 0.57 $06.1 00 $8 2.16
XF 00008 00002 25% 25% 25% 0.65 0.49 0.39 $05.2 00 $7 2.72
HF 00003 00001 33% 67% 67% 0.60 0.90 0.73 $03.6 00 $4 2.89

Class=1 00049 00007 14% 18% 29% 0.48 0.41 0.67 $06.7 00 $11 1.64
Class=1,2 00096 00011 11% 18% 28% 0.64 0.53 0.69 $11.1 18 $35 1.31
Class(+) 00096 00013 14% 23% 30% 0.65 0.76 0.94 $09.7 15 $21 1.60
Class(-) 00119 00007 06% 12% 16% 1.37 0.92 0.60 $46.7 71 $114 0.69

Fr1(Ev)=1 00048 00002 04% 19% 23% 0.93 1.53 0.99 $44.4 10 $48 0.48
Fr1=1,2 00096 00007 07% 16% 22% 1.61 1.25 0.95 $44.1 57 $114 0.83
E/P=1 00048 00003 06% 15% 19% 0.63 1.15 0.75 $20.1 33 $48 0.71
E/P=1,2 00096 00007 07% 17% 25% 0.53 0.89 0.82 $14.4 14 $48 0.83
A/P=1 00048 00007 15% 23% 31% 0.56 0.69 0.76 $07.7 00 $12 1.67
A/P=1,2 00096 00012 13% 25% 34% 0.68 0.88 0.97 $11.0 08 $48 1.43
S/P=1 00048 00009 19% 25% 35% 0.72 0.59 0.75 $07.7 00 $15 2.14
S/P=1,2 00096 00012 13% 23% 36% 0.58 0.67 0.93 $09.3 08 $27 1.43
L/P(Lv)=1 00048 00007 15% 23% 31% 1.53 0.83 0.79 $21.0 29 $58 1.67
L/P=1,2 00096 00012 13% 19% 29% 1.24 0.70 0.80 $19.9 33 $58 1.43
Fr2=1 00049 00008 16% 24% 29% 1.40 0.92 0.79 $17.2 25 $58 1.87
Fr3=1 00049 00007 14% 24% 33% 0.76 0.65 0.69 $10.6 14 $27 1.62
Fr3>50fps 00449 00035 08% 16% 25% 1.02 0.87 0.88 $26.2 46 $114 0.92

PAC=1 00059 00006 10% 19% 27% 0.71 1.01 0.87 $14.0 17 $48 1.17
PAC=1,2 00114 00011 10% 19% 27% 1.00 0.96 0.87 $20.7 27 $67 1.12
PER=1 00072 00013 18% 31% 38% 1.31 1.06 1.02 $14.6 15 $58 2.10
PER=1,2 00136 00017 13% 24% 35% 0.91 0.96 1.03 $14.5 18 $58 1.46

PED=1 00081 00011 14% 22% 31% 1.20 1.08 1.04 $17.7 27 $63 1.58
PED450+ 00393 00036 09% 17% 26% 1.10 0.88 0.85 $24.0 42 $89 1.08

Trn=1 00049 00005 10% 27% 31% 0.57 1.13 0.90 $11.2 40 $21 1.17
Trn350+ 00167 00013 08% 19% 26% 0.52 1.04 0.90 $13.2 31 $28 0.92
Trn400+ 00065 00008 12% 23% 26% 0.86 1.29 0.91 $14.1 38 $26 1.45
Trn Chg 00037 00004 11% 22% 30% 1.52 1.75 1.18 $28.2 75 $59 1.27

Jky=1 00049 00009 18% 29% 43% 1.57 0.90 0.99 $17.1 22 $67 2.10
Jky330+ 00288 00025 09% 17% 25% 0.97 0.77 0.76 $22.4 44 $83 1.02
Jky Chg 00176 00011 06% 15% 25% 1.54 1.33 1.14 $49.4 64 $114 0.75

Wk=1 00048 00003 06% 21% 27% 0.41 0.95 0.79 $13.1 33 $27 0.71
WK80+ 00323 00029 09% 17% 25% 1.23 0.91 0.86 $27.4 48 $96 1.06
WK85+ 00178 00016 09% 19% 29% 1.03 0.90 0.94 $23.0 44 $96 1.05

HTR=1 00051 00007 14% 24% 25% 0.56 0.89 0.64 $08.2 14 $21 1.58
VEL=1 00049 00010 20% 29% 37% 1.17 0.86 0.87 $11.4 10 $48 2.34
MLO=1 00048 00019 40% 48% 50% 1.43 1.08 0.84 $07.2 00 $12 4.53
IMP=1 00052 00009 17% 31% 37% 0.63 0.80 0.92 $07.2 00 $12 1.97

$ 00168 00007 04% 15% 25% 1.23 1.09 1.01 $58.9 86 $96 0.50
$$ 00139 00009 06% 12% 18% 1.24 0.87 0.82 $38.2 89 $83 0.77

RS= F,E 00221 00024 11% 20% 28% 1.67 1.27 1.02 $30.8 46 $114 1.27
RS= P 00168 00016 10% 19% 27% 0.56 0.76 0.82 $11.8 19 $35 1.13
RS= S,R 00160 00008 05% 12% 23% 1.09 0.85 0.87 $43.5 88 $63 0.59
QP +6,7,8 00208 00020 10% 21% 30% 1.51 1.24 1.06 $31.4 50 $114 1.13

Unk(i) 00024 00002 08% 17% 21% 1.56 0.88 0.56 $37.5 10 $59 0.97

FC=1 00048 00009 19% 29% 38% 1.49 1.20 0.96 $15.9 22 $58 2.14
FC>= 85 00055 00008 15% 22% 31% 0.98 0.65 0.72 $13.5 13 $58 1.67

Races= 48 PL-5 Track= ALL

km

[AlanLN]

Some Breeders Cup news and opinion from the Euro's point of view:

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/05/10/26/RACING_Breeders____Nightlead.html

[njcurveball]

And especially thanks to Rick for the great info in this thread! :)

[Rick]

KM did all the work. I just posted it for him.

[Bob Stark]

Thanks, KM, for the mention of my "research play".
When I first got into computer handicapping, I was told that one
never tests a theory just "on paper", but use real money that one
has to dig out of one's wallet. I have been doing this for the last
4 years on BC day, and like KM says, there has been about a 1.07 ROI.

Will it work this year, where BEL has been a bit chalky? I don't know, but
will give it a try. This year it may cost more, as there are 101 horses in the
8 BC races, where the ave in the past 4 years has been 90. Of course there
maybe scratches.

Win, or lose, I still WILL have the thrill of yelling, "I've got it!", when a longshot
crosses the finish line!!

[tomcat]

Well, shoot, let's just bet K6789 on each race.

[km]

Tomcat is right on the money Bob, there is more than one way to skin a cat and still say "I got it" but have less money at risk:

Testing the same 48 Br Cup (only) races from 1999 - 2004.

Bet every K 6-9: ROI = 1.48

Bet every $$: ROI = 1.24

Bet every horse MLO 8/1 or higher: ROI = 1.31
Bet every horse Tote Odds 10/1+: ROI = 1.47
Bet every horse KLine Odds 15 or higher: ROI = 1.57

But those methods require betting lots of horses in each race and they are all picking up the same bombs to get the fat ROI; win% is very low. How about a profitable 1 horse per race for your $2 that doesn't rely on bombs and hit a decent win% -->

FC = 1 (ROI 1.49)
JKY=1 (ROI 1.57)
Lv = 1 (ROI 1.53)

[njcurveball]

What everyone is saying in this thread is look at the Win ROI. The Pick 4 can offer a very nice payoff with a combination of 2 favorites and 2 price horses. Usually on Breeders Cup Day this can be $4,000 or more.

Using a sensible longshot method combined with a favorite method and a nice hit rate, a few pick 4 tickets can be assembled to really make a score.

A pick 4 example ticket:

MLO = 1
K 6+
MLO = 1
K 6+

That is about a $36 ticket for a buck with a chance for $2,000. Flop the races around and you can have the pick4 covered for $144 if any sequence of these events happen.

Be prepared to lose if the day comes up "chalky", but that is true with any longshot system. BUT be prepared to take down $2,000+ if you get a couple longshots in. Not a bad payday and with such good information, very possible!

Jim

[Bob Stark]

This year was a loss of $21.20. But I still can say I had all the BC
winner for the last 5 years, and still have an overall profit of $155.
I think the 5 year research is now officially over,,,,,,,,

[Donnie]

Bob-
Time to start getting that glossy marketing piece together for next year's BC. Imagine the opening tag line:

HAD THE WINNER IN EVERY BREEDER'S CUP RACES OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS!

-or-

7% CONSISTANT ROI OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS' BREEDER CUP RACES!!

Anybody run the numbers for this year's races yet? Like the K>=5?

[Bob Stark]

Here are all the k#'s and prices for all 10 races.

1) K3=$12.20
2) K1= 13.00 (which I bet straight to give me a positive win ROI for the day)
3) K1= 6.70
4) k4= 11.00
5) k6= 32.20
6) k3= 25.80
7) k2= 13.20
8) k9= 63.50
9) k9= 19.60 (note a 4 Euro horses super box paid $2,347 for a buck)
10)k1= 6.80