Speed Failures

[ABona]

I am somewhat new to HTR and was wondering if anyone could give some insight on how HTR users determine if the early speed will hold on.

[km]

Welcome to our bbs ABona!

The absolute most critical factor to consider here is the amount of pressure a front runner will have to endure. A soft, cruising trip on the front is the ticket to most wire to wire victories. Multiple challenges right from the gate, fast fractions and a duel, will kill off even the best sprinters.

You can assess the amount of competition for the front in HTR2 by looking at the RS (how many E & F types in the race?) the Quirin Speed Points (QP column) and notice how many horses have +5 or more and will be close to the lead. Velocity screen is important, look at FR1, Fr2 and E/P to determine how much pure thrust is present in the early fractions.

Even with all this information, it is still a guess. Some races appear to have severe early pressure, but they unfold with one horse dominating, particularly if drawn outside of the others in a sprint. If one or more of the favorites stumbles or is taken back, a longshot front runner may benefit if allowed a lone lead, especially in routes. Things happen, and we can't predict them all.

Genuine early speed types have diminished considerably for value bet potential (ROI) in the last decade. Have to look for them with in less obvious circumstances now, such as turf routes, or a quitting sprinter stretching out in a two-turn dirt route.

[Huguenot]

I am somewhat new to HTR and was wondering if anyone could give some insight on how HTR users determine if the early speed will hold on.

One thing I do is try and estimate what the early pace will be using the PAC figs and then eliminate early horses or early pressers who have shown their best races to be against much slower PAC figs or who have failed againt today's estimated pace. When I estimate a pace I use a range, like "upper 90s." When in doubt always keep a horse in.

Doesn't always work -- Tip City seemed home free yesterday in Bel/1 at 2-5. No one else had approached his early pace figs. But he through in a clunker. (dropping off a win was a big hint on lack if fiitness)

Here's a race where it did. Race 3 Belmont. The 1 had generally been able to do a 93 or so at 8F with a mid-90s pace. This is a lot of estimation and looking for "norms." If the horse shows one unusually good race in his chart where he pressed a fast pace and had great final rating I want to see confirmation in another line. Anyway, the only other horse who could run with the 1 was the 2, the chalk. It finished 2-1, low prices but still illustrative of how I examine pace matchups.