km
23rd August 2005, 08:42.52 PM
Using the KM Screen seek out active, high-potential workout patterns that have most likely been designed in advanced by the barn as a readiness fitness plan.
# = 4
DW = 8, 7, 6 or 5 (4 or 9 is ok, but on the margin)
Wk rating >= 85+, 83 (cheaper horses), 79 (2yr)
The # indicates the number of workouts since the last race. You are looking for a clear pattern of 4 works.
DW, looking for a work that is approximately a week prior to the race. The best patterns are those 6 or 7 days apart with the works. This will most likely be the case when you spot the # = 4 and DW < 9
If the Wk rating is 85 or higher, this will no doubt indicate a evenly spaced series of drills 4f -6f. Strong 5f works are the most indicative of power fitness.
Be willing to drop the 85 Wk-rating threshold for horses that are cheaper, maiden claimers, 2yr olds and fillies. You can even go under 80 with some 2yr types. Four solid drills evenly-spaced is a clear indicator of trainer intention.
Most horses that have 4 drills since the last start are coming off a freshening (28 - 90 day layoff) are a FTS or a layoff runner. With both layoff and FTS, check the trainer stats, and always look at the PED and FT with the FTS. But in any case, this is a strong indicator that the horse may be live and fit.
Bob Baffert runners often have high Wk numbers in HTR. This is because Baffert specifically plans his work cycles and uses lots of fast 5 furlong works with clear patterned spacing. This is a big part of his success now and in the past.
We'll talk more about this in the Sept newsletter and have some test results.
# = 4
DW = 8, 7, 6 or 5 (4 or 9 is ok, but on the margin)
Wk rating >= 85+, 83 (cheaper horses), 79 (2yr)
The # indicates the number of workouts since the last race. You are looking for a clear pattern of 4 works.
DW, looking for a work that is approximately a week prior to the race. The best patterns are those 6 or 7 days apart with the works. This will most likely be the case when you spot the # = 4 and DW < 9
If the Wk rating is 85 or higher, this will no doubt indicate a evenly spaced series of drills 4f -6f. Strong 5f works are the most indicative of power fitness.
Be willing to drop the 85 Wk-rating threshold for horses that are cheaper, maiden claimers, 2yr olds and fillies. You can even go under 80 with some 2yr types. Four solid drills evenly-spaced is a clear indicator of trainer intention.
Most horses that have 4 drills since the last start are coming off a freshening (28 - 90 day layoff) are a FTS or a layoff runner. With both layoff and FTS, check the trainer stats, and always look at the PED and FT with the FTS. But in any case, this is a strong indicator that the horse may be live and fit.
Bob Baffert runners often have high Wk numbers in HTR. This is because Baffert specifically plans his work cycles and uses lots of fast 5 furlong works with clear patterned spacing. This is a big part of his success now and in the past.
We'll talk more about this in the Sept newsletter and have some test results.