Track by Track Early Sprint Speed

[MtKen]

MikeD did one of these a while back & I did one months ago too but everytime I look at this stuff one track at a time I'm convinced to throw out the dogs. Occasionally a frog turns into a prince (FE in Aug) but in the long run it's probably best to avoid the tracks that habitually beat up on the F1 #1's and/or the ESP #1's if you are playing frontrunners.

This is an Excell SS based on F1 #1's and/or ESP #1's in sprints only. The chart is divided into low class (98 par & down) & hi (99+). My best spot play is on sprints below 99 par.

[Cliff]

All,

Have you guys noticed some seasonality (for lack of a better word) in your spot plays as well? In other words, are some months or periods of time better to be betting than others? This looks to be the case with what little research I have done to this point.

If so, how do you test this? Does anyone have an ROI calculator by month or other time frame?

Thanks,
Cliff

Thanks for the interesting spreadsheet MtKen. That confirmed another premise.

[Carl]

Cliff,

For a year I swore this stuff was seasonal (and didn't have the data to prove it.)

Now I have the data to prove it, and I can't.

So......despite what I "believe", I am going to have to vote for "non-seasonal". This of course doesn't preclude meet start/end specific behavior, and March/April when all the Northern tracks re-open is certainly and interesting time (although again even with two springs worth of data I couldn't find anything there either).

later,
Carl

[MikeDee]

Cliff
As long as your date field in your db is defined as a date and not text you can do >, <, = and or <> on it. So for example you can put a >=3/1/00 and <6/1/00 if you want to look at races from march 1 through may 31 of 2000. You can set a period of time run your roi calcuator. Save the resuts is say word or excell go back and change the period of time and compare the results.

[hurrikane]

Ken, looks like you seperated the Aqu inner track...how did you do that?

Also, your esp calc..is that on just esp1 or a advantage with esd as in esd>9. Reason I ask is I show a 27% win rate and a 45% ROI with esd>9 at AQU.

[Glen]

Another great way to test how good a track is for early speed.

Test the following:
1) Ev1
2) Test 1st Call position of 1

It is amazing. You will find Win percentages ranging from 45% to 22%.

[MtKen]

H-Kane:

All ESP #1's are in here regardless of Esd edge & all F1 #1's as well so there were many races with 2 qualifiers. No routes.

Aqu Inner track was 12/6 to 3/11 so I filtered that date range & relabeled tTRK so I'd know.

Also the dates included are Nov'00 to 7/31/01.

The amazing thing to me is how MNR throws such a big profit with a middle of the road %.
The question is "Can it last?"

Crc is an 'a' track for early speed & just went through a 1/21 F1 #1 slump & FE was a
dog that went crazy in Aug for my early spot play but I really think that those with around 1000 trials aren't going to undergo a huge bias shift unless the track gets a facelift.

[hurrikane]

Glen...this ev1 pos1 data is amazing. The ev1 horse getting the lead is critical. I suppose this is old new to some but it makes an incredible difference. Some tracks become very profitable just by selecting the horse that is not only ev1 but WILL get the lead at the first call.

[Glen]

Yeah, nuts huh...Now just gotta root for the pig to get the lead at 1st call!!!

[George]

Hurrikane....the ev1 pos1 is what got me chasing my current spot using esd & ldr.
Was convinced for a while it was gender specific. Now think it may be what sex is running where (what is being carded at certain tracks). Agree that one little factor can be astounding when tied to ev1.