Trainers....HTR/IMPACT

[hurrikane]

Ok...I need to understand so I can quit crying about data.

Sat 25 ELP race 4 #4 horse.
IN HTR the trainer is rated #1
In Impact the iTRN is 098 and he actually has the worst iTRN number of the field.
2 opposite ends of the spectrum.
In HTR Comp trainers...This guy, Mr Jones SR has 4 races...won 2..so of course there is little data to decide anything about his ability exept that so far he is doing great....so far.

How does HTR assign trainer position and why does impact give such a low number without enough info..Is the rating in impact so low because of the lack of data and how does this effect all of the other numbers/ratings.

[Glen]

H Kane, can't explain that one but the difference between regular HTR Trn is vs Impact Trn is that HTR Trn looks at todays conditions...

ie Type of Race, How he does coming off layoffs, claims and so on

vs

Impact Trainer looks at how he does overall...

[Rick]

From Impact Text file:

Trainer = situational trainer rating, varies by horse. 400 = outstanding.

I had asked Ken before about trainers and jockey ratings in htr. He said his approach was to not use the same criteria eveyone else used. As I recall the rating is a combination of three areas 1) Trainer results for pass year 2) Trainer/Jockey combination 3) Trainer/Horse combination.

Ken will be the one that will have to go into more detail.

[Carl]

For what it is worth, I like the IMPACT trainer rating MUCH better than the HTR one.

I use the IMPACT rTRN number in a few of my spot plays, works good. I could never get the HTR one to do anything.

later,
Carl

[George]

Funny how people using the same tool arrive at opposite conclusions. I have had much success using the HTR trainer ranking and very little luck with the IMPACT rating.

If Ken announced that from now on we each can have only 3 factors per card, mine would be rTRN, rACL, and tTRK. Think I could be very happy with only that.

Will admit that TRN is very track specific.

[Ken Massa]

Smart question Hurrikane.......turned into an informative thread.....thanks.

The TRN rating that is listed on the HTR-consensus is a combination of the factors mentioned by others on here 1) 1-year 365-day record (win only); 2) trainer w/jockey 365-day (win only); 3) trainer w/ horse lifetime (win only). The rating can be influenced greatly by the trainer/horse or trainer/jockey record with low sample size; thus a bad overall trainer can get the #1 ranking. The HTR TRN is a unique because it is so very case specific - right down to the inidividual horse.

The Impact trainer rating is a better indicator of the trainer's overall ability and computes the number by weighting the 365-day win-place-show (and out of the money) record and then adjusted using several broad categories including the jockey. Trainers with ratings over 350 should be further perused in the Comprehensive Trainer Report because they will have outstanding records in specific categories such as FTS, layoffs and claims. The average impact trainer rating is about 240. Those below 100 are not running live horses.

The older TRN ranking (from the HTR-consensus) is one of the top 5 longshot factors in HTR.
Its funky calculation will uncover surprise boxcar winners when no other clues are available. George has seen many of those peculiar TRN #1 winners at fat prices - I'm sure that is why he prefers it over the more obvious impact method!

General trainer ratings are not good profit producers. Particularly the common percentages found in the daily program or DRF. More, perhaps than any other factor, trainer records must be placed in specific context. That is the purpose of the Compr Trainer Report.

[hurrikane]

thanks Ken...that was very insightful. Things make more sense now. I assume the Jockey numbers follow the same format.

I use both HTR and Imact trn numbers and have found value with both when verified with the comp trn report. .

[MikeDee]

Ken M,

Thanks for pointing out the differences in the two. so that no good deed goes unpunished are you going to keep both trainer ratings in the future release of the htr extract?