Turf Spot Play

[Glen]

Something good to watch out for is a turfer who truly accerates from start to finish.

ie Tomorrow SAR Race 9, horse #13

13 Actuar 4/1 P 53.14 53.91 54.21


Note Fr3 is greater than Fr2 and Fr2 is greater than Fr1...Therefore this horse is actually accerating. What is evern more amazing is that this PL is taken froma dirt route. If you see one of these types and it has at least 3 Q points, it might make a good play...

[Glen]

Couple more examples from SAR Travelers Day Saturday.

Race 4 #7 Qualified from an acceleration spandpoint. Pays $9.10 to Win.

Race 5 #11 Qualifies...$11.20 to Place and $7.20 to Show

Race 8 #3 Qualifies and wins for $15.

[George]

Good play Glen. Think thats the kind of horse my old impact RES +6 over high avg used to catch.

Will check it out. Thanks.

[hurrikane]

Interesting Glen. Sounds good and makes sense but I get a big neg in the db. thought maybe the turf sprints were having an effect so just ran it on turf routes and got this..

vfr2>vfr1 and vfr3>vfr2
Pl5
races 1250
wins 192
pctw 15
p/l (786)
ROI -31.44%

Maybe I'm not thinking clearly (like that never happens.:D ) Are you showing something different in PL1
Your 3 horse did win at Sar...had him in the P4 for all thats worth. Your thinking makes sense..maybe it is just one piece of the puzzle to be used.

[Glen]

Hurrikane, I've only tested it on PL1. Last time I tested it was sometime last year with about 1 years of data. It showed a small profit on all tracks...Figure that perhaps it might do better at deeper turf tracks.


BTW, here is the limited data I have on Orleans contest tracks prior to contest...

10/55
20%
1.27 ROI
$12.72 Avg Mutal

HKane, adding nQpt>=3 might make the numbers better

[Ron]

I noticed that the examples that Glen posted at Sar where from races that had
conditions of 3up- NW1, NW2 and GradeII races on the turf.Plus those races
where at least 8.5 furlongs.

I'm wondering if this angle works better at higher class levels and at routes?


Also, I noticed that when the PL1 mode shows the acceleration patten, the PL5 mode
usually dosen't, but in PL5 it shows more of an even running style with either slight
deceleration or slight acceleration in one or two of the FPS numbers.

Ron

[hurrikane]

perhaps in PL1 the constant increase is showing good form more than anything else...which would be great if it were a good form indicator

[Ron]

Hurrikane;
I was thinking along those lines as well.

If it is the case of a forging horse in PL1 (verified by either an educated guess of the horses form cycle or perhaps PRAT) then it may be a good key bet.
If one's educated guess about the horses form cycle comes to the conclusion that it is over the top and is about to decline in performance, then it may be wise to pass the play, especially at low odds.

Ron