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canuck
25th August 2001, 08:18.41 PM
For the past 2 weeks I have been having success with a very simple method that I doubt can be run through a db--but if it can feel free to try it

On the impact screen I write down the horse with the top trainer

I then go the screen 3 in the main prog and circle any horse with a $ or +

Next step is screen 8 where the jock must have a significant increase in his win % with todays trainer versus his actual win %-I put a check mark beside the circle

If the horse has a circle and a check mark-he is considered for the win at min odds of 5-2 and max odds 5-1

If he is 6-1 or greater-I put him underneath in the ex with any horse 5-1 or less to a max of 3(4 or more I pass the race)



There are several reasons I like this method-
1)You are always betting the top trainer in the race(according to Impact)
2)In conjunction with having the top trainer in the race-there are positive factors (velocity,ev1,lv1,loves the track,loves the distance etc etc)
3)Betting within the odds "wheelhouse" insures an acceptable mutuel(around $9)-the 2 weeks I have been playing with it these mules are coming in around 30%(at acceptable odss of between 5-2 and 5-1)

A caveat-restrict play to the larger circuits where the volatility of post time odds is far less rampant than at the B tracks(Philly Pen CT and Mnr come to mind}

A drawback is the lack of action--you may on paper have a dozen plays if you download 6 tracks but because of odds restrictions only have a handful--action junkies need not apply-LOL

canuck
25th August 2001, 08:26.44 PM
Forgot to list my plays for Sunday Aug 26 using this method

AP4-5
AP5-7
AP6-3
AP8-2
FE2-2(ok-not a major circuit but lottsa slot money in them thar pools)
FE9-6
Sar5-6
Sar7-5
WO2-9
WO5-7
Also downloaded Crc and Dmr--but could not get a play

George
26th August 2001, 07:30.14 AM
Canuck.......an interesting and well thought out play. You are right that it would be very difficult to test in our present db. MikeDee could probably come pretty close with his impact data linked to htr data linked to comprehensive trainer chart info. Would still be hard to duplicate the + stuff. Probably one of those plays best to play and track manually.

Thanks for sharing it with us.

MikeDee
26th August 2001, 10:55.04 AM
I could test it but it will take some work to do so. In or de to do it I would have to bring in the trainer alerts and the trainer stats. So I/we would have to pick a few tracks and a test period.

MikeDee
26th August 2001, 11:04.17 AM
Ok Canuck and George..don't want to put any pressure on you guys, but I'm going out and get a second mortgage on the house and play your picks today!!!!

canuck
26th August 2001, 12:03.41 PM
George and Mike--the bit about the jock having a higher win % with todays trainer could be a tad subjective--I mean if an avg jock who wins 15% is now with a trainer today on a nag where he has performed at the 20% win rate level over a small sample of 10 races or less it could mean nothing--if you look at todays selections on screen 8 you will know what I mean-

canuck
26th August 2001, 06:53.53 PM
Sundays results

AP4-5 Off odds 6-1 WIN 15.00 7.80 4.20
AP5-7 Off odds 3-1 PLACE 5.60 3.40
AP6-3 Off odds 7-2 SHOW 3.40
AP8-2 Off odds 10-1 PLACE 5.40 4.00 Ex $26.80
FE2-2 Off odds 12-1 out
FE9-6 scratch
Sar5-6 Off odds 9-5 out
Sar7-5 off odds 2-1 PLACE 3.80 3.20
WO2-9 scratch
WO5-7 off odds 9-2 out

Using my betting criteria -this was a dog of a day for the win only bettor-the only winner was above my prescribed odds-showed a profit on the 3 exactas I bet

On the bright side-the strong showings and half decent prices in the place and show hole may tilt me toward that kind of action-I could have played golf and just phoned them in and made money

Win Bets 0 for 3 Bet $6 Return 0
Ex Bets Bet $12 return $26.80
Total-Bet $18 Return $26.80

=========================

The 5th at Arlington broke my heart-beaten by a nostril !

Quick recap-qualified win plays 0 for 3 Bet $6 Return 0
Qualified ex plays 1 for 3 Bet $12

As Carl says-"They run around in circles again tomorrow!

Rick
26th August 2001, 07:13.18 PM
I don't understand why you set your high odds limit so low. I would think if you go to that extreme 12-1 would be a better level.

But then again, I don't think there should be a high level.

But then again, it is your play.

Thanks

canuck
26th August 2001, 07:15.33 PM
Uhhh--first time I try to edit a post and look what happens!

canuck
26th August 2001, 07:23.42 PM
Ricks--Have only been fooling around with this for a couple of weeks-it seemed to perform better with those odds criteria but when a $15 donkey gets by you AND you bet him UNDERNEATH in an ex it makes you wonder...
Thanks for the input--I guess it will be revealed if I keep posting them and suss it up afetr a couple of months--will post Mondays after I unwind with a brewski

George
26th August 2001, 07:33.25 PM
Canuck......watched most of your plays run and was impressed. You had live horses in all but one of the ones I watched. Agree with Rick on high limit.

Think how to bet your play will evolve over time. Two weeks is too short to assess it.

Glen
26th August 2001, 07:46.43 PM
Plush Pickins Canuck!

canuck
26th August 2001, 08:21.16 PM
George--absolutely
Glen-Thanks-btw-I guess I qualify as a Hunter

Monday

Crc9-1
Crc10-5
Del6-1
Del7-5
Del8-3
Dmr5-6
FE9-2
FE10-11
Sar1-1
Sar4-3