Worth checking?

[jackad]

In a snall sample of 56 qualifying races over 8 days, this combination of factors showed a 48% win rate and a ROI of 29.6%. Is anyone willing to check it out over a larger DB sample?

The only rule: Must be Rank 1 for Ev1, PER, POW, (K), and EFF (all found on HTR Consensus screen).

Thanks.
Jack

[Rick]

I ran it for the last year. Nice win percentage of 40.56. Trouble is average payoff of $4.52 which gave a net loss of 8.32%.

3464 horses qualified.

Now can someone explain how to copy the report in Access to here.

[Rick]

Finaly figured it out in Office 2002

ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
24-Aug-01
Total Bets 3464
Total Amount Bet 6928
Win 1405
Pct. 40.56%
Amount Won 6351.40
Profit/Los -576.60
Pct Profit -8.32%
Avg. Payout 4.52
And still a pain in the rear. Guess I need to change all those tabs to spaces in Access to get things to line up in Word.

Someone have an easier way? :confused:

[jackad]

Thanks Rick.

I wonder if you could run the same sample with MLO > = 3/1 only. In my small sample this cuts the number of qualifiers down drastically but increases both the win frequency (surprisingly) and the ROI significantly.
Jack

[MikeDee]

Rick- what I do is use the print preview button then click down on the analyize with excel. once the query is is excel you can just copy, paste and do the code thing. everything lines up real good. If it is a big qurey and won't fit well just attach your spread sheet/query to your post.

P.S. welcome to the land of access db posters.....don't recall to many query posts from you:)

[Rick]

Here is MLO >=3
ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
24-Aug-01
Total Bets 1268
Total Amount Bet 2536
Win 364
Pct. 28.71%
Amount Won 2203.00
Profit/Los -333.00
Pct Profit -13.13%
Avg. Payout 6.05
MikeDee,
I tried to use Excel and got one cell with what looked like the date in excel code.
The above is from Word with no touchup at all from me.

There hasn't been much need for me to run and post queries. We have plenty of members that handle that very well. Guess that is part of the reason I had no idea how to get the info from Access to here. The few times I did it before I ended up typing all the data in, something I don't like to do.

[jackad]

Thanks again Rick. So much for results on small samples. No wonder you guys play with DBs.
Jack

[Ron]

Jackad;

Regarding your 40+% play:

Have you noticed what % the horse places when it dosent" win?

Just a thought that if it places at least 60+ % of the time you may
have a good key horse to part wheel in the win and place hole in tri's and
exacta's especially when you find some long priced contenders to hook up your spot play
horse with.

I've seen many tris and exacta's pay pretty good when the low priced
selection hits the board for 2nd and the win and place spot are taken
by some longer priced contenders.

Also, I know of a guy who does will with place and show parlays with short priced
horses like you've discovered.If your records show that you will hit 2 or 3 or more
places or shows in a row before you get a run out it may be worth doing a paper
test on to see if it's workable in real life dollars.
If you get a lot of "chops" in the play, then it's not a good idea.
What I mean by chops is, ....place, out, place, out, etc.

Also, what's the longest losing streak in the win hole?

Ron

[jackad]

Ron,
In my small sample of 56 races, the selection won or placed 76% of the time. It placed in 55% of the races in which it did not win.
I don't know how these data would hold up in the db sample that Rick ran.

Rick - Care to run this combination for place, or win and place?
Jack

[Rick]

The report is set up for win. Right now all I can tell you is that 2128 came in win or place, or about 61%.

[Ron]

Jackad;

Sure is nice to know that 6 or 7 times out of every 10 races you find your
spot play horse in, it's going to be either 1st or 2nd,..eh?

I'd go back and see if I could find the place and show horses in those past races.
If so, would I have hit any decent exacta's and trifecta's just by part wheeling 2 or 3 of
the other strong contenders with the spot play horse?

Or,..when the spot play horse happens to be part of a Daily double, pick 3 or pick
4 and he can be singled?

Have you noticed whether of not the spot play horse does better in sprints, or routes, or
perhaps male vs female races?

Also, if you've had a chance to review or work with Georges K1***** spot play outline, you may even see how many of your spot play horses are also a K1***** spot play as well.


PS: in your limited tests,on average, how may race cards, or races did you have to review to find a play?

Ron

[jackad]

Ron,
You raised some nice suggestioms for me to follow up with. It's going to take some time. Re your PS: my 56 races over 8 days were days in which I checked an average of >15 tracks/day.
Jack

[hurrikane]

Jack...like the K1**** you may have a play here that will make you think about betting against a horse knowing he will win 40% and place 70&. Maybe if you fell strong against hin you bet exotices...maybe if he is weak you pull out the dead presidents....try to find out the limit that make them lose and you may have a contrarian play....

[George]

Worked on Jack's play a little to see if I could find a profitable odds range. Tough to do as the real "pretty" horses get noticed and bet by everybody. Tried limiting to "bet down" horses with off odds <= (MLO / 2). Improved win percent to 51 but roi fell to minus 29. Did find limiting to (vbet * 1.25) as maximum odds taken would produce 38 percent win with 17.7 percent roi.

Problem in real world is very difficult to ensure wager is made within the odds limits. Profit margin is very tight and just a few mistakes would kill it.

Ron as usual has some great ideas on leverage the play with parleys or exotic keying. I lean toward Hurrikanes idea of trying to determine why these lose and go against them when those factors are present. Will look at them for negatives and report any common ones I find.

[jackad]

Ricks,
One more query, if you have the patience.
You reported a win or place frequency of about 61% with my play. What would it be if MLO <3/1? (I'm thinking in terms of parlays.)
Thanks again.
Jack

[Rick]

1487 of 2196 Win/Place for 68%.

[Bernie]

George,

Do you think it would make sense to check out your Vbet *1.25 max odds versus the MLO? Maybe the 1.25 factor would need to be modiifed some. If you run this, please let us know how many horses qualified.

[George]

Bernie,
Checked it on 9984 races with following results:
(vbet * 1.50) > MLO
516 BETS
198 WINS
38.3 WIN PCT
$942 WON
AVG MUTUEL $4.75
ROI 0.91

(vbet * 1.25) > MLO
426 BETS
178 WINS
41.7 WIN PCT
$797 WON
AVG MUTUEL $4.47
ROI 0.93

(vbet * 1.25) < MLO
76 BETS
18 WINS
23.6 WIN PCT
$134 WON
AVG MUTUEL $7.44
ROI 0.88