Spot Play Routine

[Cliff]

For you guys that have ongoing spot play routines, can you answer a few questions for me?

1) Do you feel it imperative to play every horse of every play on every day? Or, if you hit a big one or two early in one day, do you figure the percentages are against you the rest of the day?

2) Are there certain tracks that are just not bettable through any internet or phone venue? Which "book" have you found that covers the most tracks (including the smaller ones)?

As always, thanks for the input!
Cliff

[Carl]

I try to play every horse every day for every track selected.

I have missed some days and some big winners, and I have missed some days and some losers I would have otherwise played.

I think that bit Ken posted about "if you play every track everyday with a longshot play and miss a day, the longshot will invariably come in that day" was illogical, and is contrary to my own experience. I think I have missed as many losers as winners (and yes we all tend to remember the missed winners alot longer).

I view it as one large ongoing crap game, with a 12 hour break between the 9th and 1st races each day. And, contrary to what Glen posted, I THINK I am more apt to hit a winner after a big winner, making for a great day, but again this is probably just my mind attempting to put order on a group of random events that don't have a structure.

Good luck Cliff. How are the spot plays working for you? I suspect it takes a certain mind set to bet blindly day after day with the understanding/hope (pick one hehe) that it will all turn out. Just wondering how you are finding it.

later,
Carl

[Glen]

Not that my take is correct...but is the opposite of Carl. My experience is that if I miss a day of "farming" a good chance that a longshot will come in. To me, farming takes daily play and a day can not be missed...:confused:

[George]

Cliff,
Agree with Carl on your first question.

The second question on "books" is a peeve of mine. Have found nothing that consistently covers "most" tracks. AWI in Virgin Islands comes close, but has a habit of changing what they will cover from day-to-day. That drives me crazy. Can bet ELP on Monday but gone on Wednesday.

Hope someday to be able to wager any track I want online with a click of the mouse. Don't think we will ever see that.

[hurrikane]

Cliff...welcome to nut house. I use to play every track every day regardless. I would bet 2% of bank to win. I did real well for a while.

I noticed 2 things...not every track is playable..some (PHA comes to mind) just don't make sense and some (PIM)are too chalky to spot play as I don't have time to watch the tote.

when I started I found weekends made me nervous..the reason? I would end up with 40 or 50 spot plays when 30 tracks were running...at 2% of bank before you know it your whole bankroll is on the board. One bad weekend(which I had) and your in ruin. So I temper my plays and cut back to the tracks where I have had the most success. Also, I will play some tracks that have taken my money and I'm too stubborn or to stupid to leave them alone and 'farm' in greener pastures..(HAW comes to mind but I got a little even with them last meet).

[Glen]

HKanes brought up one of many reason why I don't farm anymore...

1% of bankroll/make 50 bets a day=50% of bankroll spent in one day...

Other reason why I don't farm anymore
1) Too much time
2) Feel I need to play daily to take advantage of it
3) Too stressful, cause I was keeping up with so many wagers/day
4) Betting daily will take 10 years from my life...

[Cliff]

My experience so far is rather limited. Tried playing two spot plays last weekend and was betting online. These plays should produce winners around 1 out of 10 to 14. Was using two different online services for more coverage and still couldn't get bets down on approx. 3 plays.
Was lucky enough to hit a $40+ winner on the first bet of the first play. (It is kind of addicting I must admit!)

So, then I had the dilema of whether to continue betting the other plays, or not. My gut feeling is that these spot plays are kindof like the dice on a craps table. They have no "memory" of the previous "rolls". Every race "roll" is independent of what happens before or after it. In the very long term, the races or "rolls" will average out to the statiscal percentages.

Anyway, went ahead and bet the rest of the spot plays with most of the horses finishing dead last! Was slightly up for the day.

I can see how this could be a time consuming effort, and, potentially expensive. I also had the problem of not knowing what time each race was going off. How do you guys handle that?

[MtKen]

Cliff:

Today I have a whopping 6 plays to bet before scratches---I have another 8 from a spot play that is on the back burner that I won't bet until it has a good week. Slow for a Friday, I'd expect 15 plays today & 25 on Sat & Sun.

All my plays are based on MLOr so I can play them blind if I want to & go fishing.

If I want to hang all day I'll use George's method for the modeler to add some plays and/or do more spot play farming. I just have plays for sprints & need to look at rts again.

I don't play the very small tracks--Alb, Columbus,etc--I like the Prms, Mnrs to the majors. Tracks (like trainers & jocks & spot plays) can go hot & cold. FE was a dog for me but has been amazingly hot this month--Tup & Suf were killer last year until about March & then bombed. My new plan is to ID the real dogs who haven't produced anything (Roi 0.75 or less) with 25 plays or more & just monitor those & play everything else.

I have an account at E-horse (rebate), Winticket & I'm going to get one at OJC so I can do FE & HST. With these 3 I would cover every track I want every day except FP which is only available some days on Winticket. Like everyone, I hate having my bankroll in 3 spots but I really hate seeing all the FE winners coming in that I can't bet.

I'm still considering an off-shore account with ESB so I can get Carl a bonus for signing me up. If they get on-line betting I'll be especially interested--I don't like phoning, like to click & bet.

I try to play every horse regardless of how the day is going. My 'db' is in Excel & I can scroll worksheets & see that the winners don't really come in any predictable pattern for me. I don't beat myself up for missed days or winners.....As Carl says, "I hear they're running around in circles again tomorrow!"

Ken

[MtKen]

P.S. Today I can't get into (&^#%^&$$# E-Horse !

[Glen]

Cliff...Two schools of thought on to your spot plays...

1) Play all tracks
2) Play only the tracks where ROI/Win% is good for your spot play.

For right or wrong, I skipped a few tracks were confidence level was low on the spot play...