clickety
3rd May 2005, 03:53.36 AM
Hope nobody minds if I try to take the pulse of the group on this point.
Probably everyone is aware that you can't get any good prices at the CA tracks these days. From what I see, and I review this a great deal, the payoffs at CA tracks are pitifilly small, leaving very little cushion to absorb mistakes or losses. AQU/BEL is a little better, but not much better, and mostly pitifully small as well.
Returns can be increased by simply making higher bets, I suppose... but when payoffs are small a series of losses can be difficult to recover from, whether you've bet $2 or $200, since the winnings have to also recover the losses. If they don't, we're wasting our time. NOBODY can win 100% of his wagers.
And I cannot understand why anyone in his right mind would play Gulfstream at all. Just bring up the GP charts in HTR, scan thru a bunch, and what you'll see is nearly 100% large fields, extreme uncertainty and risk, backed up by no money. In most of those races I see no relationship at all between the data and the outcome of the race: it's an Unpredictable Random Event. Ken has a good discussion of this in the April newsletter, where users have sent in "systems," but upon analysis it's no different than "random" would produce. This is also known as "spinning the wheels." Or, "Paper, paper everywhere and not a buck was made."
CD is just getting started, but it's already looking like another GP: small payoffs. So why invest there when the pickings are so much better at other tracks, such as HAW? AP should be fairly good as well. With the marvelous improvements in simulcasting and the internet only in the past 3 years, there is no need to be locked into tracks that don't pay much. For those in restricted states with too much hassles, there is Pinnacle. And with the trends towards much longer meets, HTR has the chance of much better analysis and results, except for tracks with "no money."
TUP has gone downhill in terms of small payoffs as well. I have archived results and charts on this computer going back to 1998, and earlier on disks; and seven years ago there were all sorts of boxcar exactas, etc. but not today. As to KEE, meet just ended again... the problem with this place is by the time the handicappers figure out what's going on and what's working, the meet is over!
I am an investor, not a gambler or kid playing games. And I'll say right off that we investors are rather horrible people; all we look at is numbers, stats and financial reports; and the horses are all just numbers in the computer these days. I haven't watched a horse race since last year's Derby.
Thus, why are we here and what are we doing? The only thing I'm interested in is PROFITS. If these are not to be had, and in substantial amounts, there are other things I can do with my time, or if all else fails, put on a good movie.
Comments, anyone?
c.
Probably everyone is aware that you can't get any good prices at the CA tracks these days. From what I see, and I review this a great deal, the payoffs at CA tracks are pitifilly small, leaving very little cushion to absorb mistakes or losses. AQU/BEL is a little better, but not much better, and mostly pitifully small as well.
Returns can be increased by simply making higher bets, I suppose... but when payoffs are small a series of losses can be difficult to recover from, whether you've bet $2 or $200, since the winnings have to also recover the losses. If they don't, we're wasting our time. NOBODY can win 100% of his wagers.
And I cannot understand why anyone in his right mind would play Gulfstream at all. Just bring up the GP charts in HTR, scan thru a bunch, and what you'll see is nearly 100% large fields, extreme uncertainty and risk, backed up by no money. In most of those races I see no relationship at all between the data and the outcome of the race: it's an Unpredictable Random Event. Ken has a good discussion of this in the April newsletter, where users have sent in "systems," but upon analysis it's no different than "random" would produce. This is also known as "spinning the wheels." Or, "Paper, paper everywhere and not a buck was made."
CD is just getting started, but it's already looking like another GP: small payoffs. So why invest there when the pickings are so much better at other tracks, such as HAW? AP should be fairly good as well. With the marvelous improvements in simulcasting and the internet only in the past 3 years, there is no need to be locked into tracks that don't pay much. For those in restricted states with too much hassles, there is Pinnacle. And with the trends towards much longer meets, HTR has the chance of much better analysis and results, except for tracks with "no money."
TUP has gone downhill in terms of small payoffs as well. I have archived results and charts on this computer going back to 1998, and earlier on disks; and seven years ago there were all sorts of boxcar exactas, etc. but not today. As to KEE, meet just ended again... the problem with this place is by the time the handicappers figure out what's going on and what's working, the meet is over!
I am an investor, not a gambler or kid playing games. And I'll say right off that we investors are rather horrible people; all we look at is numbers, stats and financial reports; and the horses are all just numbers in the computer these days. I haven't watched a horse race since last year's Derby.
Thus, why are we here and what are we doing? The only thing I'm interested in is PROFITS. If these are not to be had, and in substantial amounts, there are other things I can do with my time, or if all else fails, put on a good movie.
Comments, anyone?
c.