MtKen
21st August 2001, 06:33.58 PM
Hi all!! I've been on vacation & unfortunately have returned & gotten quite a
w#@!^%$k bug to pay for vacation & have just been running my spots for about 3 1/2 wks. now.
There have been some great posts in this section was introduced & there is great advice for newcomers here. I just want to put in my 2 cents about spot play size etc.
As Carl pointed out a play that works for 5 months can suddenly '0-fer'. 0 for 24, if you are playing potential double digit winners, is something you have to prepare for. Like Carl, I'd layoff until either rigor mortis set in or a few winners 'corrected' the deviation from the mean (or something like that).
In my 3 1/2 wks. of no playing & only testing my most solid play was the one with my biggest sample size--over 800 horses & 1.26 Roi. I've been bringing in all but the tiny tracks since last Nov. In my test this play continued on with with a 20% profit with around 18 % winners.
The other very good return I had was on a play with only 125 samples but a 2.00+ Roi & a decent win % of around 18% again. This one had about a 1.75 Roi on about 20 horses.
I had 2 spot plays with over 500 samples each & a 1.35+ Roi each that tanked on the next 100 horses. These returned a total Roi of aproximately 0.75.
My plays are sprint only & revolve around either EV 1 or ESD 1.
I've been reading about db plays based on fewer than 100 samples & my opinion is that you should save your cash & build the db before trusting these. Until you have 6 months of data I would use George's modeler play or Glen's ideas on non-DB HTR playing. Or play EV 1 longshots using Massa's guidelines from the newsletters. Lots of HTR guys play short-term trends.
I've got 10 months of data almost & I'm wavering on the track specifity thing. FE was a dog for me until this Aug test & it has been a F1 haven lately. Some tracks grow hot & cold. I'm hoping the good ones from the 1st 10 months will repeat as I go into the 2nd year with them but you never can be sure how much sand, clay or whatever has been added to the track.
I think spot plays with a few hundred samples need a decent win % of close to 20% & an Roi of 1.50+...these are hard to find. With fewer samples I'd want a similar or even higher hit rate & 100%+ profit before I'd wager.
A few sprint factors I like with EV1 or F1...
MLOr--4 to 8-----unless you are sitting at the track, tube, computer etc & can wait for 3/1 or 4/1+.
CLChNG--I'm sure I typed that wrong but I'm refering to class change & (surprise) I hate those dropping 3 levels or more....set query at >=-2 & you avoid those.
Stars--- I love "stars" & most of my plays eliminate the '0's & hone in on the 1's & 2's.
( I have some very hi % 5 star plays but these have cooled lately)
There are a couple of factors where I throw out the top ranked horse & use the others--Resist is 1 of these.
I love blinkers off.
BOL & Glad to be back--Hopefully I can get a SAR winner on-line before they're finished!
! more thing---George has stated that his 1.30+ Roi play hasn't had a losing week!! That statement saved more $$ then I can imagine. Your plays need consistency or maybe they are just another example of backfitting-----I sure have found lots of those :D
Ken
w#@!^%$k bug to pay for vacation & have just been running my spots for about 3 1/2 wks. now.
There have been some great posts in this section was introduced & there is great advice for newcomers here. I just want to put in my 2 cents about spot play size etc.
As Carl pointed out a play that works for 5 months can suddenly '0-fer'. 0 for 24, if you are playing potential double digit winners, is something you have to prepare for. Like Carl, I'd layoff until either rigor mortis set in or a few winners 'corrected' the deviation from the mean (or something like that).
In my 3 1/2 wks. of no playing & only testing my most solid play was the one with my biggest sample size--over 800 horses & 1.26 Roi. I've been bringing in all but the tiny tracks since last Nov. In my test this play continued on with with a 20% profit with around 18 % winners.
The other very good return I had was on a play with only 125 samples but a 2.00+ Roi & a decent win % of around 18% again. This one had about a 1.75 Roi on about 20 horses.
I had 2 spot plays with over 500 samples each & a 1.35+ Roi each that tanked on the next 100 horses. These returned a total Roi of aproximately 0.75.
My plays are sprint only & revolve around either EV 1 or ESD 1.
I've been reading about db plays based on fewer than 100 samples & my opinion is that you should save your cash & build the db before trusting these. Until you have 6 months of data I would use George's modeler play or Glen's ideas on non-DB HTR playing. Or play EV 1 longshots using Massa's guidelines from the newsletters. Lots of HTR guys play short-term trends.
I've got 10 months of data almost & I'm wavering on the track specifity thing. FE was a dog for me until this Aug test & it has been a F1 haven lately. Some tracks grow hot & cold. I'm hoping the good ones from the 1st 10 months will repeat as I go into the 2nd year with them but you never can be sure how much sand, clay or whatever has been added to the track.
I think spot plays with a few hundred samples need a decent win % of close to 20% & an Roi of 1.50+...these are hard to find. With fewer samples I'd want a similar or even higher hit rate & 100%+ profit before I'd wager.
A few sprint factors I like with EV1 or F1...
MLOr--4 to 8-----unless you are sitting at the track, tube, computer etc & can wait for 3/1 or 4/1+.
CLChNG--I'm sure I typed that wrong but I'm refering to class change & (surprise) I hate those dropping 3 levels or more....set query at >=-2 & you avoid those.
Stars--- I love "stars" & most of my plays eliminate the '0's & hone in on the 1's & 2's.
( I have some very hi % 5 star plays but these have cooled lately)
There are a couple of factors where I throw out the top ranked horse & use the others--Resist is 1 of these.
I love blinkers off.
BOL & Glad to be back--Hopefully I can get a SAR winner on-line before they're finished!
! more thing---George has stated that his 1.30+ Roi play hasn't had a losing week!! That statement saved more $$ then I can imagine. Your plays need consistency or maybe they are just another example of backfitting-----I sure have found lots of those :D
Ken