Fast pace races

[Bruce]

When I trialed HTR for a month a while ago I tried to make hay from fast-fast races or horses who had been in fast races for the class and were returning today in races where the pace should be slower.
However, it never seemed to work out. Anybody have any success doing this?

Bruce

[Glen]

Don't have any documentation on this, but my favorite play is an Ev1, PL1 who didn't get the lead in his last race due to fast pace. In theory, it will get the lead today and perhaps do something with it.

[Carl]

Bruce,

I spent a day getting average Qpts into all my db's, the theory being that the races with the higher average qpts (more pressure) would test differently for ev1's coming of than those coming out of low pressure (low average qpts) races.

Nope. Couldn't find any meaning full correlations at all.

Now, being a people, I keep adding the average qpts to my table waiting for a use. Would be easier for just to give it up and admit that's there's nothing there, but of course I couldn't do that, would negate my previous "work" (i.e. it's a "guy thing".)

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

well Carl, I guess 'people' of a feather flock together..I still have something I built that calcs the Randy Giles pressure number for all races daily and puts it in a table of race pressure...
..never found anything meaningful in the testing
..still prints on my report for bets of the day
..still create the data every day
..still don't use it.

I guess I'm hoping one day it will turn into a goose and lay a golden egg :D

[chuck]

I'm kinda surprised about the pace pressure. I've found the opposite. I'm going from memory here. When average qpts is down around 3 the epr win % was like 21% roi loss of -5%.
When average qpts was up around 5 the epr win% was 17% roi loss of -25%.

[Ron]

Bruce;

I noticed that horses exiting a fast pace race who did not make any impact in the running of the race, most likely will not do so today even if the pace is slower. They got there fast figure by chasing a fast pace or getting sucked along in the fast pace.
I've noticed that these animals are usually "positional" runners that tend to run in the same part of the herd no matter what the pace of a race is.

On the other hand, a horse who in his most recent start has set the fast early pace, or better yet contested the fast early pace, or made a decent move into that pace would be one that I'd consider to be a prime contender in todays race, DEPENDING on the pace matchup TODAY.
Checking it's velocity figures against the rest of todays field gives me insight as to whether or
not he can set and control or track todays projected pace relatively un-pressured.

If the horse is a lone F, E, or P I like him even better.
If the horse is a versatile runner who has shown he can win from several positions, he's almost a lock to win or at least hit the board.

Anyway, that's been my experience.


Ron

[tomcat]

Carl, I have found that certain q pts are good at some tracks and bad at others. The last few weeks at Ellis the 7 and 8 q's were death, so I scratched them so long as they were not lone e's or something.

[hurrikane]

Tomcat...great post..I have had great sucess at Ellis with horses with low Qs, esp1 or fr1 and are e or p...great with field > 7...especially with a top t/j combo..and changing tracks this or last out.......5/12 in the last 2 weeks all over 20-1...shots...wish they had a pick 4!

Had a week K1..fr4 going off at 1-4 last friday...boxed the next 4 in line...paid 3700...got half of it...pays to pay attention...

[tomcat]

Wow! Sounds great!!!
Here's a leading question...how did you bet it?

[hurrikane]

Well, if you are talking about the tri I boxed the 4 horses and then did 2 3 4 5 /K/2345 2345/2345/k where the K was the weak k1 horse(wasn't eager to throw him completely out)
total bet was $36. I know I could have done it better perhaps...so hears a leading question...how would you have bet it Tom?

[tomcat]

Just looking at the next 4 in line, if you would have keyed the next horse and played 3 three-horse boxes - abc, abd, acd...for $18 you have the same as $24 (for all 4), however, had you played the same as exacta boxes, and the next horse came in 1st or 2d, you would have had the exacta 1.5 times. The latter is how I would have played along with your kweak tris you mentioned. That way you either get a 1.5 exacta or the tri. A winner either way!

[hurrikane]

very good Tom. next time will think it through a little better. like being a winner either way and paying less to do it...thanks